There are new claims saying Iran’s nuclear program was “badly damaged” in attacks by Israel and the U.S. These differ from earlier published reports that the strikes had a limited effect, highlighting the precarious nature of parsing through preliminary assessments.
Wednesday afternoon, CIA John Radcliffe said that his agency “can confirm that a body of credible intelligence indicates Iran’s Nuclear Program has been severely damaged by the recent, targeted strikes,” according to a public statement. “This includes new intelligence from a historically reliable and accurate source/method that several key Iranian nuclear facilities were destroyed and would have to be rebuilt over the course of years. CIA continues to collect additional reliably sourced information to keep appropriate decision-makers and oversight bodies fully informed. When possible, we will also provide updates and information to the American public, given the national importance of this matter and in every attempt to provide transparency.”
Radcliffe’s analysis follows statements from Israeli intelligence officials on Wednesday said that U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities have caused “very significant” and “long-term damage,” according to Israeli media reports. Iran also confirmed its sights were “badly damaged.” Those assessments are in line with what U.S. President Donald Trump has said. At the same time, they differ significantly from U.S. media reports citing a now-confirmed preliminary Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) report stating that Operation Midnight Hammer, the U.S. attack on Fordow, Isfahan and Natanz, had limited results. Experts in the non-proliferation community are also giving their takes on the state of Iran’s nuclear program, some of which are conflicting and even Iran has chimed in.
Clearly this issue is highly politicized at this point and there are many agendas at play when it comes to propagating specific narratives surrounding it. These range from political motivations to state-sponsored disinformation. Unless there are trusted moles with actual access to these sites — or who have direct knowledge from those who do — within the Iranian government, and only if Iran has even gained access into critical areas themselves, conclusions can only be made in a preliminary fashion based on very limited information. Even intercepted intelligence can be falsified in order to throw foreign assessments off. Intelligence reports, as a practice, also range in confidence, and it’s unlikely the confidence is extremely high this soon after the attack. So maybe the B-2’s didn’t have the desired effect and maybe they destroyed huge amounts of critical nuclear infrastructure and materials. It’s still not very clear and conclusions in key intelligence products can change drastically based on new information.
Regardless, here is the state of play of the battle damage assessment situation as it sat prior to the CIA report. You can also catch up with our past reporting about the Israel-Iran conflict here.
Hellbound and Down 