Weaponising Water: Israel Assumes Control Over The Al-Mantara Dam In Syria

Israeli military forces have established fortified positions and developed advanced military infrastructure in various locations within the Quneitra countryside of Syria. Since December 24, these forces have achieved considerable control over the Al-Mantara Dam, a crucial water resource in the region, which could have significant repercussions for both Syria and its neighbouring country, Jordan.

The Al-Mantara Dam is not only a key water supply for Quneitra, but also for its adjacent rural areas, and the Daraa Governorate. Reports from the local population indicate that movement in and out of the occupied territories is severely restricted, with Israeli forces enforcing regulated schedules for civilian access.

This manoeuvre by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) bears a striking resemblance to a well-documented strategy previously employed by the Islamic State (IS) in Syria and Iraq, where IS utilized water resources to advance its military and political objectives by seizing control of major dams and reservoirs along the Euphrates and Tigris rivers as part of their territorial expansion.

Tobias von Lossow, a doctoral researcher at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, SWP Middle East and Africa Division,  authored a compelling study entitled “Water as Weapon: IS on the Euphrates and Tigris”. In this work, he explores the strategic significance of dams and reservoirs to the Islamic State (IS).

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Unconfirmed Reports Say Ousted Syrian Leader Bashar Al-Assad May Have Been Poisoned in Moscow in an Assassination Attempt

After the demise of the decades-long Assad rule over Syria, his escape and subsequent asylum in Russia have been filled with rumors.

To begin with, Bashar Al-Assad and his family were on a plane that, on approach to a Russian air base, turned off the transponder, leading many to believe his plane had been shot down.

Since arriving in Russia, his wife Asma has been said to be either asking for divorce and longing to go back to her native UK or else suffering from a terminal disease.

Now, a Russian Telegram channel has made headlines around the world with the claim that Assad may have been poisoned.

This has sparked fierce online speculation about the fate of the Syrian dictator.

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The curiously evolving relationship between Russia and the terrorist group that took control of Syria

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (“HTS”) is a coalition of Sunni Islamist insurgent groups in northern Syria. It evolved from Jabhat al-Nusra which was al-Qaeda’s former branch in Syria. In an effort to appear moderate, HTS cut ties with al-Qaeda in 2016. Despite these efforts, HTS remains listed as a terrorist organisation due to its history and ongoing activities.

HTS is designated as a terrorist organisation by the US, Russia, Turkey, the United Kingdom and other states.  But since HTS took control of Syria at the end of last year, it seems Russia, along with other governments, is willing to consider removing HTS from the terrorist list, even though there is no evidence that HTS has changed its ways.

We don’t have any answers, only questions.  Questions such as: Was the takeover of Syria agreed upon between powerbrokers in Syria, including Russia and the United States, before HTS launched their offensive?  Were groups such as HTS used to give the appearance of a takeover while, in reality, it was a changing of the guard?  

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Zelensky Says Ukraine Will Establish Diplomatic Ties With HTS-Led Syria

On Thursday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he was working to re-establish diplomatic ties with Syria following the takeover of the country by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a US-designated terrorist organization that’s an offshoot of al-Qaeda.

“We are preparing to renew our diplomatic relations with Syria and our cooperation within international organizations. I want to thank our intelligence for the security framework of these contacts,” Zelensky said.

His comments came after Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha visited Syria and met with HTS officials, including Syria’s de facto leader, Abu Mohammad al-Julani, who has been going by his real name, Ahmed al-Sharaa.

Ukraine severed diplomatic relations with Syria in 2022 after former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, an ally of Russia, recognized the independence of the Donetsk and Luhansk Republics in eastern Ukraine.

Ukrainian intelligence supported the HTS takeover of Syria by providing drones and drone operators a few weeks before the offensive was launched. Ukraine’s military intelligence, known as the HUR, had also reportedly been involved in attacks on Russian bases in Syria.

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US helps Syria’s ruling Al Qaeda offshoot while punishing its people

In his memoir of his time as a senior aide to President Obama, Ben Rhodes recalled one of the administration’s top quandaries in Syria.

Back in late 2012, the CIA was waging a multi-billion dollar covert war to help insurgents topple then-Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. By that point, Al Qaeda had established a powerful franchise in Syria known as Jabhat al-Nusra, which international actors were promptly designating as a terrorist organization.

Yet for a US government seeking regime change in Damascus, adding al-Nusra to the State Department terror list posed a problem. On the ground, Rhodes acknowledged, al-Nusra “was probably the strongest fighting force” against the Syrian government. Moreover, rather than coming into conflict with one another, it was “also clear that the more moderate opposition” favored by the US was in fact “fighting side by side with al-Nusra.” Therefore, Rhodes recalled arguing to his colleagues, designating al-Nusra as a terrorist organization “would alienate the same people we want to help.”

Rhodes and his compatriots ended up losing that debate. Yet while the State Department designated al-Nusra in December 2012, it turns out that the US still found a way to help. By placing Nusra on the terrorist list, the New York Times explained that month, the Obama administration hoped “to remove one of the biggest obstacles to increasing Western support for the rebellion: the fear that money and arms could flow to a jihadi group that could further destabilize Syria and harm Western interests.”

In other words, designating al-Nusra as a terrorist group was a toothless move that helped the Obama administration continue arming the insurgency that the Nusra militants dominated. The notion that US sanctions would force an Al Qaeda-dominated rebellion to abandon its leading fighting force was a fantasy – if not a deliberate ruse — that ensured that US weapons would continue to flow.

And that they did: three months after Nusra’s terrorist designation, the Associated Press reported that the US and its proxy war allies had “dramatically stepped up weapons supplies to Syrian rebels” to help them “seize Damascus.” Despite the Obama administration’s public opposition to Nusra, “there is little clear evidence from the front lines that all the new, powerful weapons are going to groups which have been carefully vetted by the U.S.” Instead, insurgents “including Jabhat al-Nusra” had been seen “with such weapons.” Once U.S. weapons arrived in Syria, the Obama administration quietly acknowledged that it had no way of controlling who would use them. “We needed plausible deniability in case the arms got into the hands of al-Nusra,” a former senior administration official explained in 2013.

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Pretending Your Partners Aren’t Who They Are

Maybe Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, the leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), who is now the leader of Syria, really has changed. Maybe he has matured, as he told CNN, as if his years as an al-Qaeda terrorist leader were a youthful indiscretion.

But the world cannot simply take the pragmatic rebel at his word. On December 8, after Asaad fell and Jolani took over control of Syria, U.S. President Joe Biden said “We’ve taken note of statements by the leaders of these rebel groups in recent days and they’re saying the right things now. But as they take on greater responsibility, we will assess not just their words but their actions.”

But judge them just by their words is precisely what the Biden administration did. HTS is designated as a Foreign Terrorist Organization, and the State Department has a $10 million reward for information leading to the capture of Jolani. Despite the designation and the bounty, U.S. State Department officials met with Jolani on December 20, at which time, Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Barbara Leaf told Jolani that “based on our discussion,” the U.S. “would not be pursuing the Rewards for Justice reward offer that has been in effect for some years.” The decision was based, not on Jolani’s actions, but on his words, on “our discussion.”

In proxy wars and regime changes, there are always three parties: the country undertaking the action, the government or country the action is aimed at, and the domestic group that is being used or that is intended to replace the current regime. The history of overt and covert U.S. operations is littered with disasters that resulted from a third party that was as, or more, nefarious than the regime it replaced. In order to avoid immersing itself in the turbulent seas of direct action, the U.S. has dipped its toes into some pretty fetid proxy waters. The challenge after is to rebrand the proxy group to sell it to the international community.

Abu Mohammad al-Jolani has traded his al-Qaeda name for his given name, Ahmed al-Sharaa, and his rebel clothes for Western style clothes. The founder of the al-Nusra Front, the Syrian branch of Al-Qaeda, has renamed and rebranded his organization. He has made politically pragmatic promises to the United States. But terrorists are not always to be trusted. And whether he is al-Jolani or al-Sharaa, must be judged by his actions, as Biden and Leaf insist, and not by his words.

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Biden Is Wrong To Double Down on Syria

On December 19, the U.S. Department of Defense announced that there are roughly 2,000 troops stationed in Syria – 1,100 more than previously shared with the public. Pentagon spokesperson Major General Patrick Ryder disclosed the new number almost off-handedly, without explanation for the shock news as Syria experiences a generational moment following former President Bashar al-Assad’s regime collapse on December 8. The announcement personifies the ongoing and widespread disdain of American political and military leaders for transparency on military operations abroad.

Indeed, the laxness with which Ryder announced the new deployment numbers is unacceptable. These forces are not, as the spokesperson claimed, simply “temporary rotational forces” but reflect the worst excesses of mission creep that have come to define U.S. military operations in the post-9/11 era. Ryder’s follow-on statements, in the same breath as his claims of the temporary nature of the deployment, highlight this bleak reality: “Right now, there are no plans to cease the defeat-ISIS mission.”

Rather, the Biden administration feels empowered to expand that mission and lie to the American people about what exactly it is doing in Syria. Such an outcome results from unchecked executive power in the U.S. government and Congressional reluctance to question support for anything labeled as counterterrorism (CT) operations. Worse, the announcement comes as news surfaces that U.S. President Joe Biden experienced “good days and bad days” as early as 2021 concerning his mental acuity – another inconvenient fact hidden from U.S. citizens, raising questions regarding who has actually been steering policy in the White House.

The inconvenient truth for Biden’s advisors is simple: U.S. forces continue to operate in a country that has not invited them to establish a presence and without any constitutionally mandated Authorization for the Use of Military Force (AUMF) required to make such military operations legal under U.S. law. Only Congress can pass an AUMF – the president cannot unilaterally declare one. Flimsy arguments connecting the Islamic State to Al-Qaeda – arguing that the former grew out of the latter – are another ugly expansion of unchecked executive power aimed at limiting U.S. citizen input on the critical decisions of their elected officials.

Such a pass must be rejected. For two decades, U.S. officials have worked to expand global military power in a resource-draining deluge of unsustainable overextension. On the same day as Ryder’s announcement, the U.S. Senate passed the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) – the primary defense appropriations package – to the tune of $895 billion. As U.S. debt approaches $37 trillion, the government should be more transparent on such issues – not less. Yet rather than taking that approach, the Pentagon failed its seventh straight audit in 2024.

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Al Qaida Is Winning – The New Caliphate In Syria

Biden began his term in office by abandoning Afghanistan to the Taliban and allowing the creation of a new terrorist super state. He is finishing his time in the Oval Office by watching helplessly as a new Caliphate is formed in the rubble of what was once Syria. Divorced from reality as always, his hapless State Department now calls the jihadi ruler of Damascus Al-Jolani a “pragmatist” and talks mindlessly about accommodation and cooperation with mass murderers and rapists.

Meanwhile, inside Syria, the new Islamic rulers are losing no time in consolidating their rule and making clear their intentions. On 26 December, Al-Jolani appointed former Al-Qaeda commander and Nusra Front co-founder Anas Hassan Khattab as the head of the country’s general intelligence agency. Khattab was designated a “terrorist” by the United Nations a decade ago. According to the UN, he was involved “in the financing, planning, facilitating, preparing, or perpetrating of acts or activities by, in conjunction with, under the name of, on behalf of, or in support of” and “otherwise supporting acts or activities of” the Nusra Front. This Al-Qaeda offshoot was rebranded as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in 2017.

Those are the guys who now run Syria.

As the head of intelligence Khattab’s job will not be to prepare detailed analyses of foreign developments. He will be in charge of domestic security. His job will be to crush any dissent and guarantee Al-Jolani stays in power. He has already been performing that function in the areas that HTS has controlled for years, where torture and murder are common tactics used to stifle dissent.

Last week, Asaad Hassan al-Shibani, a founding member of Al-Qaeda in Syria, was appointed foreign minister for the new terrorist state being created in Syria.

Meanwhile, more information is becoming available on the composition of the jihadist forces that drove Assad from power. Contrary to press reports that want to characterize the ousting of Assad as some sort of liberal, democratic, populist movement, the reality appears to be that substantial numbers of fighters from outside of Syria are present on the ground. Just before Christmas, a video surfaced of a Christmas tree in a town in Syria being burned by Islamists. It now appears the terrorists who carried out this action were Uzbek fighters fighting with Al-Jolani’s forces.

In fact, substantial numbers of Central Asians are in Syria and serving the new Caliphate. According to the Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI),

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U.S. Media Ignored How CIA’s Operation Timber Sycamore Paved the Way For the Syrian “Revolution”

On December 8, 2024, Syria’s long-standing ruler Bashar al-Assad fled to Russia after being deposed by Sunni militia forces in what New York Times columnist Thomas L. Friedman called the “biggest…most game-changing event in the Middle East in the last 45 years.”[1]

Friedman was enthusiastic about the regime change, though Syria’s new head of state, Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, had a $10 million bounty placed on his head by the U.S. State Department in 2017 as a wanted terrorist.[2]

The “blazer-wearing revolutionary,” as CNN called him,[3] had been imprisoned from 2006 to 2011 at Abu Ghraib and other U.S. military prisons for supporting al-Qaeda in Iraq.

Colin P. Clarke, a counterterrorism analyst at a security consulting firm in New York was quoted in The New York Times as stating that, under Jolani’s rule, northwest Syria was “a harsh place where critics are silenced, tortured, jailed and disappeared.”[4] Hookahs and music were also banned, as they were under the Taliban in Afghanistan.[5]

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Leaked files show secret UK Syria project boosted Jolani’s HTS 

In the name of building a “moderate opposition,” London established a social service and media network in areas controlled by HTS, benefitting the group it branded as a dangerous Al Qaeda affiliate.

Leaked British intelligence files reviewed by The Grayzone raise grave questions about whether London has aided the rise of Hayʼat Tahrir al-Sham, the Islamist group which was proscribed by Western governments until it seized power in Syria this December. 

Prime Minister Keir Starmer has stated it is “too early” to remove HTS from Britain’s list of proscribed terrorist organizations. When the group was added in 2017, its entry stated it should be considered among “alternative names” for Al Qaeda. It was therefore illegal for British government officials to meet with HTS representatives while its status endured.

However, on December 16, British diplomats including Ann Snow, London’s special representative for Syria, convened a summit with Jolani and other HTS leaders in Damascus.

That same day, The Times of London granted Jolani a sympathetic interview, during which he called for an end to Western sanctions on the country, promising Syria would not be a “launchpad for attacks on Israel” under his watch. This followed a fawning BBC profile intended to highlight Jolani’s “rebranding” of HTS. The stage now appears set for HTS’ proscription to be rescinded, and London to recognize the group as legitimate rulers of post-Assad Syria. 

The UK’s embrace of HTS represents the culmination of a long and secretive process which began when the group’s leadership was still closely aligned with Al Qaeda’s Syrian branch, Jabhat Al Nusra, and even the Islamic State. While British intelligence once embarked on a campaign to undermine HTS in opposition-controlled areas of Syria, while cultivating supposedly “moderate” factions, leaked files reviewed by The Grayzone reveal the clandestine efforts wound up strengthening Jolani’s organization, helping pave its path to power. More troublingly, these documents suggest that, contrary to mainstream accounts of the group’s split from Al Qaeda, the pair remain close collaborators in Syria.

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