Tag: politics

Canary in the Coal Mine: Romania’s Dying Democracy

The commitment of Washington’s European allies to democracy is increasingly fragile, if not hypocritical, as Vice President J D Vance highlighted in his speech to the Munich Security Conference last month. That problem is most acute in Romania. In the first round of the country’s presidential election on November 24, 2024, Calin Georgescu, the candidate of a right-wing populist party, unexpectedly led the field. In addition to having populist social views, Georgescu is an outspoken critic of NATO. His “apostasy” on that issue makes him especially unacceptable to Romania’s political establishment and its U.S. supporters.

The United States was already busily expanding its Mihail Kogalniceanu military base at Constanta in southeastern Romania to eclipse even Washington’s long-time principal European base, Ramstein, in Germany. The expanded facility in Romania would be 50 percent larger than Ramstein, and it would bring a massive U.S. military presence much closer to Russia. U.S. and Romanian officials were not pleased about the prospect of having those plans aborted by a new, less friendly government in Bucharest.

To make matters even worse for the two parties in the current governing coalition, the Social Democratic Party (PSD) and the National Liberal Party (PNL), both of them failed to place a candidate in the runoff round. Instead, Elena Lasconi, a reformer representing another “minor” party took the other runoff spot. Thus, the establishment parties would not be able to focus their fire exclusively on Georgescu in the hope of inflicting a decisive defeat on the maverick.  Instead, whichever outsider prevailed in the runoff would not be from the usual governing elite or be a reliable client of the United States and its NATO partners.

The response of the beleaguered establishment forces was to get the country’s election commission, which the PSD and PNL dominated, to nullify the first round election results.  Romania’s Constitutional Court, which the PSD and PNL also dominated, ratified the election commission’s edict just two days before the runoff round was to be held. Instead, the Court rescheduled that round for May 4, 2025.  Both the Commission and the Court alleged that the election had been tainted by “Russian interference.” However, neither body cited tangible evidence of such interference on Moscow’s part, much less established that the alleged meddling was sufficiently egregious to nullify the election results. As New York Times reporter Andrew Higgins concluded: “The court’s intervention came after Romania’s security service released declassified intelligence reports that pointed to possible Russian interference in the election campaign but provided no solid evidence of that.”

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If We Set Aside Ideology, Is There Anything We Can Agree On?

Just the experiment of setting aside ideological certainties for a moment would be instructive.

Humans are hard-wired to prefer simplicity over complexity, and this is the foundation of ideology, which like mythology takes a complex world and radically simplifies it to an easily digestible construct. (I tease all this apart in my book The Mythology of Progress.)

Being social animals, humans are also hard-wired to quickly form loyalties to groups and gravitate to one camp. Very few football fans (if any) have zero loyalty to any team and have zero emotional stake (i.e. there’s no team they hope loses and none they hope will win).

Uncertainty generates anxiety, and so we settle the real world’s many uncertainties with internal certainty: an ideology is a simple sketch of how the world works, and we will defend this emotionally powerful construct even as evidence piles up that it doesn’t accurately map all of the world’s complexities. We will deny, rationalize and cherry-pick examples to “prove” our ideological certainties map the real world.

The problem with radically simplified constructs like mythologies and ideologies is they cannot possibly map the world accurately as complex, interactive systems don’t reduce down to a simplified construct. So every ideological construct ends up denying, rationalizing and cherry-picking examples to cover the inherent weaknesses of simplifying the world into bite-sized constructs.

Our intense drive to establish and nurture loyalties leads to emotionally satisfying but often counter-productive convolutions, such as any enemy of my enemy is my friend and any friend of my enemy is my enemy.

The problems with ideological constructs are magnified in tumultuous times as ideologies map a rapidly shrinking share of the real world. The internally coherent ideology drifts further into incoherence, and our natural defense is not to become more open-minded (i.e. actively embrace uncertainty and entertain new ideas) but to cling even harder to the simplified certainties that generate our internal sense of self and certainty.

Since the faithful of competing ideologies are pursuing the same strategy to reduce anxiety, our loyalties clash with increasing intensity. That possibility that all the ideologies claiming to map the real world are increasingly detached from real-world dynamics doesn’t occur to any true believer in any camp, for each believer remains confident (and when pushed, becomes ever more adamant) that their ideology is the one true construct that faithfully maps all of the real world’s immense complexity.

Such is the power of these internally coherent constructs that we don’t see them as belief structures, we see them as the bedrock of truth. We don’t recognize our ideological beliefs as beliefs open to question, and so when challenged, we respond defensively: Ideology? What ideology? What I’m saying is the truth. Yes, true to us, but an accurate account / map of all the world’s complexity? No.

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Serbian Opposition Throw Smoke Grenades and Tear Gas at Fellow Members of Parliament — One Lawmaker in Critical Condition

Things may get heated in Congress, but never do they fall apart like this.

Opposition lawmakers in Serbia threw smoke grenades and tear gas at fellow parliamentarians in a show of opposition to the government and to express their support for current student protests.

The demonstrations were a response to the collapse of a roof at a train station several months ago that killed 15 people and now threatens to bring down the country’s government.

The attack took place during a legislative session after the ruling coalition, led by the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS), approved the parliamentary agenda.

As the agenda was approved, several opposition politicians rushed toward the parliamentary speaker, clashing with security guards.

Other individuals then threw smoke grenades and tear gas, covering the room in black and pink smoke.

Two people were injured by the attack, according to House Speaker Ana Brnabic, with one suffering a stroke and currently in critical condition.

“The parliament will continue to work and to defend Serbia,” she told the session.

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The Geopolitics of Peace

Thanks to all of you for the chance to be together and to think together. This is indeed a complicated and fast-changing time and a very dangerous one. So, we really need clarity of thought. I’m especially interested in our conversation, so I’ll try to be as succinct and clear as I can be.

I’ve watched the events very close-up in Eastern Europe, the former Soviet Union, Russia and Ukraine, very closely for the last 36 years. I was an adviser to the Polish government in 1989, to President Gorbachev’s economic team in 1990 and 1991, to President Yeltsin’s economic team in 1991 to 1993 and to President Kuchma’s economic team in Ukraine in 1993 to 1994.

I helped introduce the Estonian currency. I helped several countries in former Yugoslavia, especially Slovenia. After the Maidan, I was asked by the new government [in Ukraine] to come to Kyiv, and I was taken around the Maidan, and I learned a lot of things firsthand.

I’ve been in touch with Russian leaders for more than 30 years. I also know the American political leadership close-up. Our previous secretary of treasury, Janet Yellen, was my wonderful macroeconomics teacher 52 years ago. We have been friends for a half century.

I know these people. I say this because what I want to explain in my point of view is not second-hand. It’s not ideology. It’s what I’ve seen with my own eyes and experienced during this period. I want to share with you my understanding of the events that have befallen Europe in many contexts and I’ll include not only the Ukraine crisis, but also Serbia 1999, the wars in the Middle East, including Iraq, Syria, the wars in Africa, including Sudan, Somalia, Libya. These are to a very significant extent the result of deeply misguided U.S. policies. What I will say may well surprise you, but I speak from experience and knowledge of these events.

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Wolves, Hyenas and Legislators Run in Packs

At an early age, we taught our kids to learn from others and to think for themselves. I still remember telling one child, “Truth doesn’t fly in flocks. You need to seek and find it on your own. And never be afraid to test and re-examine what you believe is true. Belief has no value if you close your mind to the ideas and arguments of others. Living in truth involves not only faith, but also the courage to think for yourself.”

Unthinking animals either herd up for security, or run in packs to pull other creatures down. Politicians do both. In the worst example I have seen in 48 years in Montana, the cowardly pack mentality has been on full display in the sixty-nineth session of the Montana State Legislature.

Most of us are aware by now of the hostile takeover of the Montana State Senate by a coalition of every Democrat plus a wolf pack of liberal Republicans, who locked claws on vote after vote to deliver a functional majority for the Democratic Party. At one point, twenty separate pro-Democrat floor votes were recorded, all by 27-23 margins – an impressive show of Pack Power over their own Republican leadership. The nine GOP deserters are senators Vance, Gillespie, Kassmier, Lammers, Loge, McKamey, Tempel, Hunter and Ellsworth.

First, the Pack held the Senate hostage for many days, eventually forcing leadership to change its own rules so that liberal Republicans could be inserted onto key committees to shift committee control.

Then came the Jason Ellsworth affair. Sen. Ellsworth was caught arranging a sweetheart contract for a buddy of his by quietly diverting, at the last moment, over $170,000 from the unspent budget of the Judicial Reform Interim Committee, over the objections of its members. The project made no sense and would be performed from the friend’s home. When discovered, auditors were shocked, and the Senate Ethics Committee began an investigation, as was its constitutional duty. But the nine-member GOP wolf pack again locked arms with the Democrats and stopped the investigation in its tracks – thus assuring that the liberal Ellsworth would remain in the Senate for the entire session, doing the Democrats’ bidding.

Other reports of Ellsworth throwing his political weight around started coming out. Clearly, he should have resigned, but the “the Pack” continued to give him protective cover, and he remains there still – larger than life – seemingly incapable of shame or contrition.

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 German Leftist Party Chants Antifa Slogan Before Entering Parliament

Members of the far-left Die Linke party proudly chanted an Antifa slogan before they entered the Bundestag parliament in Berlin after the German elections.

At one point, Die Linke (The Left) looked like they wouldn’t even make it into parliament by failing to achieve 5 per cent of the vote, but a late rally driven by fearmongering over the Afd helped them to garner 8.8 per cent thanks to a last minute surge.

Left leaders Jan van Aken and Ines Schwerdtner and former chancellor candidate Heidi Reichinnek gathered for a photo-op with other MPs to chant, “alerta, alerta, antifascista!” outside the Bundestag.

“The phrase — “attention, attention, anti-fascists” — originated in 1920s Italy among leftist opponents of the Mussolini regime before being picked up in the Weimar Republic by the German leftist-extremist Antifascist Action group, the predecessor of the modern Antifa movement. The phrase is often heard at Antifa rallies worldwide to this day,” reports Breitbart.

In other words, literal Communists who support a movement that has been defined as a domestic extremist organization by some countries now have a foothold in German politics.

Die Linke was the most popular party among voters between the ages of 18 and 24 at 25 per cent, while the young female vote was crucial to them entering parliament.

34 per cent of women who voted in that age bracket cast their ballot for Die Linke, with their nearest challengers being the Afd on just 14 per cent in that demographic.

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Massie Teases Senate Run – Jewish GOP Group Threatens ‘Unlimited’ Spending To Stop Him

Kentucky GOP Rep. Thomas Massie is teasing a potential run for Mitch McConnell’s Senate seat in 2026, and a Jewish Republican group is already threatening to unleash “unlimited” spending to thwart any such bid, given his frequent opposition to legislation pushed by the pro-Israel lobby. 

On Thursday, Massie posted a poll on X, asking if he should stay in the House, run for Senate in 2026, or run for governor in 2027. A Senate campaign was the choice of 67% of the respondents.

The libertarian-minded Massie opposes all foreign aid. At his own political peril, he dares to make no exception for the State of Israel, which is among the world’s richest countries. He has also voted against legislation that would infringe on free speech by, for example, punishing colleges that allow students and professors to say the wrong things about Israel.

Add it all up — and stir in the fact that he’s a member of a party whose legislators almost universally toe the pro-Israel line — and Massie is likely the House representative the pro-Israel lobby would most like to eliminate. The idea of him ascending to the Senate has pro-Israel forces racing to DEFCON1. 

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The Inside Story of DOGE’s State Department Reforms

The DOGE tsunami is about to strike the U.S. Department of State, as well as other agencies. Let’s see what that means.

The day the music died was January 28, when nearly everyone at State, along with over two million other federal civilian employees, received an email referring to “A Fork in the Road.” The email offered qualifying diplomats and civil servants a choice ahead of planned Reductions in Force (RIFs, layoffs): resign now under a special program, don’t come to work for a few months while being paid, and then in September become eligible for whatever retirement benefits you would otherwise be eligible for, if any. State offers its diplomats a full retirement with pension after age 50 and 20 years of service, similar to the military, and after 30 years for civil servants, all with exceptions of course.

Despite the general sense that the buyout was some sort of trick (workers questioned what legal authority allowed State and other federal agencies to pay people who technically resigned, then bring them back into the system to retire), across the government some 77,000 people signed up for the deal before it was brought to a pause by court action. For those with a long way toward formal retirement, it seemed like good enough; ahead of being RIFed, they’d pocket some seven months’ salary on top of whatever severance package might await them when actually let go. The Fork program, as it was commonly now called (alongside the new expression “to get forked”), acquired a formal name, “deferred resignation,” and the paid time off without working became “administrative leave.” An involuntary retirement is called the Orwellian “Discontinued Service Retirement.”

The American Federation of Government Employees (AFGE) and others sued to block the “deferred resignation” program, arguing that its chaotic rollout and shifting legal justifications constituted violations of the Administrative Procedure Act’s protections against “arbitrary and capricious” decision-making, and the promise to pay employees past the March 14 possible government shutdown deadline could constitute an Anti-Deficiency Act violation.

On February 12 the federal judge who had temporarily blocked the plan reversed course, ending the temporary restraining order upon concluding he lacked jurisdiction in the case. The deferred resignations would be allowed to go forward (though the sign-up deadline has now passed) reducing headcount at State and other federal agencies if everything went as planned. In his decision, U.S. District Judge George O’Toole wrote that the unions’ challenges are of the type Congress “intended for review within the statutory scheme,” referring to the need to file administrative appeals before going to court. There were doubts the Trump administration would or legally could follow through as stated. Everett Kelley, president of the American Federation of Government Employees, called the plan “an unfunded IOU from Elon Musk.”

Then things started to get really interesting at State.

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House Lawmakers Form First-Ever Official Congressional Jewish Caucus

Jewish lawmakers in the House of Representatives have formed the first-ever Congressional Jewish Caucus. 

According to a report by The Hill, Jewish politicians in the United States House of Representatives have founded the Congressional Jewish Caucus, which will serve as an official platform to address rising antisemitism and concerns facing the American Jewish community.

“In response to unprecedented rising antisemitism in the United States and the challenges the American Jewish community has faced in the wake of the horrific terrorist attacks of Oct. 7, the need for this Caucus is understandable,” said Representative Jerry Nadler (D-N.Y.), a founding co-chair.

“I am confident this caucus will bring Jewish members together to strive to achieve unity, not unanimity, and will be a productive forum to discuss issues of import to the American Jewish community,” he added.

Representative Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Fla.), who initiated the program, emphasized the significance of education and cross-community linkages in resolving Jewish American concerns.

“With antisemitism reaching record levels in the United States, it is more important than ever before that Jewish members of Congress have a formal Caucus to represent the unique perspective of the Jewish American community,” she said.

Nadler will be co-chairing the caucus along with Representative Brad Schneider (D-Ill.). 

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