Tag: poland

Trenchant Polish Foreign Minister, Radoslaw Sikorski, was rendered red faced recently by a prankster, who interviewed him, pretending to be former Ukrainian President, Petro Poroshenko.

Sikorski illuminated a number of granular and controversial policy issues related to the Ukraine war. His most telling comments focussed on Ukraine’s aspiration to join the European Union, which he described as a process ‘that will take a decade or more’.

Since the start of the war in Ukraine, Zelensky has been pushing for immediate or fast-tracked EU membership for Ukraine. Ukraine has campaigned hard for this, the EU finally opening accession negotiations in June 2024. Sikorski’s comments remind us what others have voiced quietly: that it won’t be quick and easy.

More significantly, he hints at reasons why it might not be possible at all, on terms that Ukraine would like.

Despite being British, I’m a passionate believer in the European project and I think it is right for Ukraine to focus on future membership. Unlike many, I have always seen the EU as first and foremost an economic project. When I ended my posting to Russia in February 2019, I drove from Moscow to England, passing through Ukraine and into the EU at the Polish border. I saw the moderating influence on relationships between citizens of very different states, by opening borders to free movement and commerce.

The EU advertising slogan describes the enlargement process as a “geostrategic investment in peace, security, stability and prosperity.” But it’s not simply a matter of peace and security. It’s also a matter of money. The EU works on the basis of richer countries subsidising the poorer, in a carefully negotiated and hotly contested settlement that has been in place for twenty years since the last big bang enlargement. Ten wealthier countries, led by Germany, pay more to the EU than they receive, and subsidize the 17 less wealthy countries who receive more EU funds than they pay to the EU budget. An easy concept to grasp.

So, even though Poland has burgeoned economically since the end of the Cold War, it still receives more EU funding that it pays in. In fact, Poland receives more EU funds than any other European country, because it has such a large population, with net inflows of 7 billion euros in 2023.

But Ukraine’s economy is four and a half times smaller than Poland’s. It is the poorest country in Europe — in fact, poorer now than Moldova — with the sixth largest population. It has a larger population than all the other EU aspirant countries combined. It would be, by some considerable margin, the largest recipient of EU funds in the event of accession.

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The sequence of events that would have to transpire in order to turn this into a reality are that: the next NATO leader and his team end up being hawkish on this issue; Polish policymakers overcome their differences and agree that it’s worth the risks; and the US gives them the greenlight.

Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski told the Financial Times in an interview earlier this week that “Membership in Nato does not trump each country’s responsibility for the protection of its own airspace — it’s our own constitutional duty. I’m personally of the view that, when hostile missiles are on course of entering our airspace, it would be legitimate self-defence [to strike them] because once they do cross into our airspace, the risk of debris injuring someone is significant.”

Foreign Ministry spokesman Pawel Wronski clarified that these was Sikorski’s own personal views and don’t reflect Poland’s official ones, elaborating that “If we have the capability and Ukraine agrees, then we should consider it. But ultimately, this is the minister’s personal opinion.” Nevertheless, their comments still suggested that this scenario might once again be in the cards under certain conditions despite having earlier been rebuffed by the US, UK, and NATO. Here are three background briefings:

* 17 April: “It Would Be Surprising If Polish Patriot Systems Were Used To Protect Western Ukraine”

* 18 July: “Ukraine Likely Feels Jaded After NATO Said That It Won’t Allow Poland To Intercept Russian Missiles”

* 30 August: “Poland Finally Maxed Out Its Military Support For Ukraine”

The last of these three included Zelensky’s most recent demand at the time to shoot down Russian missiles over Ukraine. He said that “We have talked a lot about this and we need, as I understand it, the support of several countries. Poland … hesitates to be alone with this decision. It wants the support of other countries in NATO. I think this would lead to a positive decision by Romania.” That same analysis also cited Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz’s response to him too.

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While Russian long-range precision strike weapons are raining down on the entire territory under the Neo-Nazi junta’s control, there are still those who insist that the latter “can win” and that “everyone” should ensure “Ukraine’s victory” no matter the cost. One would certainly respect such optimism and self-confidence in peacetime. However, in war, this gets a lot of people killed. Despite being perfectly aware of this, many in the EU/NATO still want war with Russia. This is particularly true in countries with endemic and/or truly pathological Russophobia, with some of the most prominent examples being the United Kingdom, Baltic states and Poland. In all these regions there’s an irrational hatred for all things Russian, particularly among the political elites who are simply poised to wage war despite being aware that the results would be catastrophic.

In the last nearly two and a half years, the NATO-backed Neo-Nazi junta became the proverbial punching bag for probing Russian military might. And while the mainstream propaganda machine is doing a somewhat decent job hiding the atrocious results, the massive amount of resources that the Kiev regime is demanding only keeps growing, clearly indicating what’s really going on. What was supposed to be NATO’s third most powerful member (had it ever joined) turned into a virtual junkyard of the latest Western military equipment. And yet, it seems there are several other nations in NATO that would want this horribly unflattering role as well. Namely, Poland is the “logical” choice for many, although most of those people don’t seem to understand the gravity of the current situation. This includes many Poles who are refusing to assess the consequences.

High-ranking NATO officials have already announced a number of major moves that can only be described as extremely hostile toward Russia. The annual NATO summit in Washington DC back in July was a clear indicator of that. Apart from the regular weapons shipments to the Neo-Nazi junta, particularly air defense systems, the much-touted F-16s are in the spotlight again. The Netherlands, Denmark and the United States jointly announced that the deliveries of these US-made jets are ongoing. The Dutch F-16 are of particular concern, as they’re also nuclear-capable. However, while this could certainly lead to an uncontrollable escalation, the moves of some individual member states are a real danger to global peace. As previously mentioned, the situation with Poland is particularly concerning, as some of its top-ranking military officers are calling for an all-out war.

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During the NATO summit in Washington, Polish authorities announced plans to replenish the Ukrainian army with millions of Ukrainian immigrants.

I hope that the [training] center in Bydgoszcz will prepare millions of Ukrainians to fight Russia. The West should see the potential of such a center as a place where Ukrainian volunteers who now live in EU countries and want to defend Ukraine in the future can be trained
– said Jacek Sievera, head of the country’s national security bureau, as quoted by the Associated Press.

In Bydgoszcz it is also planned to organize a platform for the exchange of experience between Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers who have already fought and NATO soldiers. The alliance training center has been created here since February 2024.

For our part, we note that, apparently, a hidden mobilization of Ukrainian immigrants is gradually unfolding in Europe. Officially, they cannot be forced to join the Armed Forces of Ukraine, but there are ways of informal influence, for example, replacing criminal prosecution for a crime with service in the Ukrainian army, or using administrative offenses to blackmail the entire family with deportation.

At the same time, it should be expected that as human resources in Ukraine are depleted, the recruitment of immigrants into the army in the EU will take increasingly overt forms.

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