Tag: perpetual war

Nuclear War: Why we should be thinking about it now

Almost all of us living today have become conditioned to believe that nuclear war will not occur due to the concept of mutually assured destruction, or MAD.

MAD, put simply, is the guarantee that one country will not use nuclear weapons against another country due to immediate nuclear retaliation and the destruction of both. Not to mention the nuclear winter that would occur and the annihilation of the human population. But what if MAD is obsolete and is no longer protecting us from nuclear war? I believe that to be true, but what does that mean to you and me?

Reconsideration of the reliability of MAD is particularly important at this moment in time. With the current geopolitical circumstances, we’re at a threat level equal to or greater than the Cuban missile crisis. The two most obvious threats emanate from the Russian invasion of Ukraine and China’s intention to invade Taiwan. The situation is exacerbated by the provocation of the United States and its imperialistic and, frankly, arrogant foreign policy.

How have the factors changed that have made MAD obsolete? First, Russia and China have surpassed the Western world’s nuclear capabilities to such a degree that the United States and its NATO allies are no longer considered equals. With hypersonic missile capabilities that our enemies possess and we do not, we’re no longer able to “mutually assure” their destruction. A missile that can travel at speeds faster than 10,000 miles per hour is unstoppable. Our missile defense system is useless against hypersonic nuclear attack, and we’ve allowed our enemies to advance their missile defense system capabilities to well exceed what we possess.

Second, under the Clinton administration, the “fire on warning” protocol was changed. Prior to 1998, the U.S. nuclear response protocol was to fire on warning. The powers that be realized that it was no longer practical to fire on warning. The response took too long, and it put the world at risk over the likelihood that World War III might begin accidentally due to a false warning, which was occurring with some frequency. With the threat of hypersonic missiles, the fire on warning protocol is simply irrelevant. The time from launch to impact of a hypersonic missile launched from a Russian submarine targeting Washington is less than 30 seconds.

Third, the incompetence of our leadership and ineptitude of our military procurement program have created our extreme vulnerability. Generals who decide which weapon systems are funded leave the military and take high-paying positions with federal defense contractors. They essentially accept bribes from companies in exchange for purchasing their inferior products. The F-35 aircraft is a great example. Add to the broken procurement system the woke culture that’s being propagated and destroying our war-fighting capabilities.

With the Ukrainian debacle, Russia has been provoked to the point that Vladimir Putin has recently placed his nuclear forces on high alert. Putin has stated: “If someone decides to intervene in current events from the outside and creates unacceptable strategic threats for Russia, then they must know that our response, our retaliatory strikes, will be lightning fast, quick. We have the tools for this.”

The United States has been sending ever more threatening weaponry to Ukraine such as the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, or HIMARS, a precision rocket weapon. The Ukrainians have not only begun to fire these weapons at Russian targets, but also have been accused of firing artillery at the largest nuclear energy power plant in all of Europe, located in Zaporizhzhia in southeastern Ukraine. At what point does Russia act on Putin’s threat and go nuclear?

Russia has now completely allied with China. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s recent visit to Taiwan resulted in China instigating war games in the Taiwan Strait, and the political change within China, where power has been taken from the State Council and given to the Central Military Commission, is a clear move to a war footing.

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Houthis claim missile attack on USS Dwight D. Eisenhower in Red Sea; DoD says attack never happened

There is conflicting information out there about what happened or did not happen in the Red Sea pertaining to the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower, also known as “Ike.”

The Houthis in Yemen say they successfully conducted a missile attack on the nuclear-powered carrier while the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) says no such attack happened.

After the Houthis claimed credit for the attack, an unnamed DoD official reportedly told Politico‘s Lara Seligman that this is “false information,” adding that “there was no hit on the Ike or any attacks in its vicinity.”

The Houthis, meanwhile, say that the attack with both cruise and ballistic missiles did, in fact, happen in response to the American-British bombardment of Sanaa and Hodeidah, calling the hit “accurate and direct.”

Both Reuters and Al Jazeera reported that the attack happened, citing Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree who issued a televised statement about the alleged attack.

An English translation of a tweet from Saree’s X account explains how the alleged attack was a response to “American-British aggression in support of the Zionist enemy, which caused 58 martyrs and wounded, to dissuade our dear people and the Armed Forces from their position of support for the oppressed Palestinian people in the Gaza Strip.”

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America’s Space Infrastructure: So Vulnerable It Destabilizes Geopolitics

No one would die directly from an attack on satellites, and no one cries over melted plastic and copper. Yet as American and Chinese reliance on their space-based satellite constellations increases, so will the incentive for either side to target and strike the other sides early in a conflict. This incentive to strike first—a “Pearl Harbor” in space—could be so destabilizing as to precipitate a war that neither state wants but cannot avoid. 

The United States needs a space infrastructure that is both resilient and redundant enough to survive a Chinese first strike. That is, the satellite constellation infrastructure that the United States uses for its military and commercial needs must still be functional even if the Chinese were to attack the system and attempt to destroy it. Currently, the brittleness of our satellite constellation is such that any concerted effort by an adversary would render the American satellite constellation useless for military purposes. The satellite infrastructure must be resilient to non-kinetic counterspace weapons like electronic jamming and laser blinding, but also to kinetic anti-satellite missiles or even the deployment of a nuclear weapon. 

The modern U.S. military is dependent on satellites for global positioning system (GPS); communications; sensing and targeting of enemy assets; and even the movement of American ships and planes across the planet. .  Put another way, the U.S. military would be hard pressed to conduct successful operations without access to it. Modern aircraft and navy vessels rely on GPS to traverse the world’s oceans and skies; the military relies on satellites for open and secure communications; and intelligence and surveillance satellites enable America’s precision-guided munitions to hit targets with accuracy. Increasingly, China and Russia are similarly reliant on satellite constellations for military purposes. 

Given the reliance of the United States, China, and Russia on their respective satellite infrastructure, there are first-mover advantages to an adversary who strikes first in space. That is, the more an actor is reliant upon satellite constellations in prosecuting a war, the more incentives their adversaries have to preemptively destroy or degrade said constellations. Indeed, the benefits of striking first are so great—and the consequences of being the target of such a strike are so grave—that brittleness in space incentivizes first strikes and is therefore destabilizing.

Strategic stability generally refers to a condition in which neither actor is incentivized to strike first—and both would pay significant costs for doing so. In the Cold War, neither side carried out a decapitation strike on the other, due in part because of the knowledge that such a strike would not provide meaningful benefit and would trigger a retaliation (a devastating nuclear second strike) the consequences of which would far outstrip any marginal benefit incurred in even a “successful” first strike.

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Europe preparing for war as Ukraine conflict looms large, report finds

More than three-fourths of European countries spent more on their militaries in 2023, a report has found, as the world’s most peaceful region fears a possible expansion of Russia’s war on Ukraine.

The 18th edition of the Global Peace Index (GPI), produced by the Australia-based Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP), warned on Tuesday the world was at a crossroads, with the global number of conflicts reaching 56, the most since World War II.

Ninety-seven countries deteriorated in peacefulness in 2024, more than any year since the inception of the report in 2008.

Wars have also become more international, with 92 countries involved in conflicts outside their borders, the most since the GPI began recording peacefulness.

“Over the past decade, peacefulness has declined in nine out of the 10 years. We are witnessing a record number of conflicts, a rise in militarisation, and heightened international strategic competition,” said Steve Killelea, founder and executive chairman of IEP.

“It is imperative for governments and businesses worldwide to intensify their efforts to resolve the many minor conflicts before they escalate into larger crises,” Killelea said.

While Europe is home to seven of the 10 most peaceful countries, 23 out of 36 countries in the region have become less peaceful.

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German government approves new plans for war, including food rationing and compulsory conscription

Germany is preparing for an all-out war in Europe with Russia, finalizing a new 67-page defense plan full of strict wartime measures that make it clear they are expecting the worst.

The new measures come in the form of updates to Germany’s Framework Directive for Overall Defense of 1989, which outlines the measures the country will take should a war break out. The new defense framework was approved by Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s cabinet this week and replaces the previous guidelines.

Not surprisingly, a return to compulsory conscription features prominently in their plans, which means that citizens could be drafted at any time during the war. This compulsory military service was abandoned by the country in 2011, but Germany is now one of several nations that is talking about bringing it back.

In addition to the military draft, the guidelines state that skilled citizens over the age of 18 could be forced to work in some types of civilian jobs that would be deemed useful in wartime, such as nursing or baking bread. Meanwhile, hospitals must prepare to take on a significant influx of patients.

In a statement about the new guidelines, Interior Minister Nancy Faeser said: “As a result of Russian aggression, we have a completely changed security situation in Europe.”

Parts of Germany could be fully evacuated, and the country will advise its citizens to shelter in “solid-construction” basements, subway stations and underground garages for protection during air raids; they note that attacks could take place with “sometimes extremely short warning times.”

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US ‘flirting with neo-Nazis’ – Kremlin

Washington will stop at nothing, including the use of neo-Nazis, to damage Russia, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Tuesday, following a US decision to lift a ban on supplying weapons to Ukraine’s Azov Brigade.

The unit has notoriously welcomed into its ranks people who espouse ultranationalist and neo-Nazi ideologies, and has been described by the Western press as a magnet for such individuals from across the world.

On Monday, the US Department of State cleared the brigade to receive American military assistance, stating that it found no evidence of human rights violations by the group.

“This sudden change of stance by Washington proves that [US officials] would stoop to anything in their attempts to suppress Russia, using the Ukrainian people as a tool. They are even fine with flirting with neo-Nazis,” Peskov told journalists during a media briefing.

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Yemen strikes UK warship in response to Israel’s Nuseirat massacre

Yemen’s Armed Forces announced on 9 June several operations in the Red and Arabian Seas, including the targeting of a UK warship. 

The operations were carried out as a response to Israel’s massacre in central Gaza’s Nuseirat refugee camp on 8 June, which killed nearly 300 Palestinian civilians during an operation to retrieve four living Israeli captives. 

“In response to the Zionist enemy’s crime in the Nuseirat camp yesterday … The missile force carried out a military operation targeting the British warship destroyer (Diamond) in the Red Sea with a number of ballistic missiles, and the hit was accurate,” said army spokesman Yahya Saree.

“The naval forces, missile force, and unmanned air force of the Yemeni [army] also carried out two joint military operations against two ships belonging to companies that violated the decision to ban access to the ports of occupied Palestine. They are the NORDERNEY ship, which was directly hit, causing a fire to break out, and the MSC TAVVISHI ship, in the Arabian Sea, which was directly hit,” Saree added.

“The two operations were carried out with a number of naval and ballistic missiles and drones.” 

The UK maritime security firm Ambrey reported on Sunday that a cargo transport vessel flying the flag of Antigua and Barbuda was hit by a missile 83 nautical miles southeast of Yemen’s Aden. The British Maritime Trade Operations Authority reported on Saturday another incident on a ship 80 nautical miles southeast of Aden.

Saree’s announcement came a day after 274 Palestinians were killed and nearly 700 injured during an Israeli military operation to rescue captives in central Gaza’s Nuseirat refugee camp. Israeli undercover units, aided by US forces, infiltrated Nuseirat disguised as displaced civilians and using an aid truck as cover before indiscriminate bombardment wreaked havoc upon the camp 

Four prisoners were retrieved alive, and one Israeli officer was killed. The spokesman for Hamas’ Qassam Brigades said a number of Israeli captives were killed in the operation.  

As part of the naval campaign waged by the Ansarallah movement and the armed forces of Yemen’s Sanaa government in solidarity with the people and resistance in Gaza, Yemeni forces have recently expanded their operations against Israeli maritime interests to include the Mediterranean Sea.

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Israel perpetrated Nuseirat massacre to ‘block’ ceasefire deal: Hamas

Ismail Haniyeh, the head of the Hamas movement’s political bureau, says Israel launched its bloody massacre and captive rescue operation in Gaza’s Nuseirat camp Saturday to block a ceasefire deal.

Speaking with Al Jazeera Arabic on 10 June about the US-proposed ceasefire deal and prospects for ending the war, Haniyeh said Israel attacked the Nuseirat camp, killing at least 274 Palestinians and retrieving four Israeli captives to block any agreement that would end the war.

Israeli forces bombed various civilian areas of Gaza from the air to create chaos and pave the way for Saturday’s operation while executing Palestinians in cold blood in their homes where no Israeli captives were present.

Haniyeh also accused the US of being a part of the attack, saying the Biden White House is “no less criminal” than the Israeli leadership.

A video posted by an Israeli soldier showed the captives being extracted by helicopter from the beach in Gaza where the US built a floating port, allegedly to deliver humanitarian aid.

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US Deploys Sub Hunter P-8 Poseidon Off Florida Coast To ‘Shadow’ Russian Flotilla

According to Newsweek, multiple open-source intelligence analysts have said the US has deployed air and naval assets off Florida’s eastern coast to ‘shadow’ Russian warships. This comes as Russian warships are expected to arrive in Cuba this week ahead of military drills in the Caribbean.

Open source intelligence (OSINT) analysts on Tuesday posted updates showing the CG Stone coastguard vessel, the USS Truxtun and USS Donald Cook destroyers, and the Royal Canadian Navy frigate HMCS Ville de Quebec travelling southwards down the Florida coast, purportedly following the Russian ships headed to Cuba. Above them, at least one US Navy P-8A Poseidon appeared to be conducting surveillance. -Newsweek

OSINT analysts on X weren’t clear which of Russia’s four-ship grouping, made up of the Gorshkov frigate, the nuclear-powered submarine Kazan, the fleet oil tanker Pashin, and the rescue tug Nikolai Chiker, were transiting in international waters off the coast of Florida. Still, they posted flight tracking data that showed at least one Boeing P-8 Poseidon circling above. 

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Biden to Ukraine: You’re not getting into NATO, but that doesn’t mean you can stop bleeding for us

If Vladimir Zelensky is Ukraine’s most inflated politician, its most important one is not from Ukraine at all. Kiev’s war and its political regime both vitally depend on Washington’s faltering, though obstinate, octogenarian, President Joe Biden. Without his support, Western support as a whole would either collapse entirely or decrease decisively; the war would be over, and so would Zelensky.

That is why an interview that his US counterpart recently gave to Time Magazine was a severe blow to Kiev’s ruler, as even the ultra-hawkish British Telegraph noted. NATO, Biden explained, is not part of his plans for Ukraine’s future. To be precise, while NATO membership during an ongoing war has always been an absurd idea, Biden has ruled it out for the future postwar peace as well. Instead, he suggested that Ukraine would be supplied with weapons so “they can defend themselves.”

To add insult to injury, the American president also mentioned Ukraine’s record of “significant corruption,” a thing he should know a thing or two about from family experience: It was money from nepotistic non-work for the Ukrainian company Burisma that, according to Biden’s son Hunter’s own autobiography, “turned into a major enabler during my steepest skid into addiction,” while enabling him to “spend recklessly, dangerously, destructively. Humiliatingly.”

Let’s set aside the fact that Joe Biden’s statements contradict Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s recent promise that the upcoming NATO meeting in Washington will be used to build a “strong and well-lit bridge” to membership for Ukraine. Bridge to nowhere, it turns out, at least according to Blinken’s boss.

Is Biden reliable? Of course not. For one thing, he is clearly incapable of remembering most of his own statements. Indeed, the Time interview as a whole displays his rambling confusion all too clearly. (Almost as if he had been set up by those among the Democrats who’d still like to replace him with another candidate, but let’s not dwell on that.) In addition, even among politicians, he stands out as unusually immoral (ask the Palestinians), dishonest, and corrupt. And by openly permitting Ukraine to use American arms to strike within Russia (if with restrictions, for now), he has just shown again that his own declared ‘red lines’ are always up for revision.

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