Tag: iran

Despite UN Diplomacy, the US and Iran Are Still Headed Toward More War

Just a few thoughts on the three-hour indirect meeting yesterday at the UN between US and Iranian officials, facilitated by the indefatigable Qataris.

It is undoubtedly a good thing that the two sides have resumed contact again, even though we are now back to Qatari mediators shuttling messages between them rather than the two sides talking directly to each other.

But it is also true that the two sides remain very far from each other. The positive manner in which Trump, in particular, described the meeting, as a result, leaves the impression that this was more performative than substantive. That is, yet another effort to calm the markets and reduce further negative impact on the upcoming elections. Why else would Trump insist that a deal will be reached after the midterms? That specificity gives the game away.

Indeed, part of the calculation on the American side is to make moves now to reduce the likelihood of an Iranian escalation before the midterms. As I have written before, Round 3 of the war is very likely, and from the US standpoint, the preferred timing is after the midterms. But the Iranians are no longer in a reactive mode; if war is coming, they may take preemptive action to deprive Trump of the luxury of choosing the timing of the next round. The most optimal moment to preempt a US attack would be a week or two before the midterms, which is why some limited diplomacy now with the partial aim of reducing the likelihood of such a preemption is deemed useful. And why its achievement is overstated.

To go beyond this, real concessions from both sides are needed. But right now, the key blockage is Trump’s refusal to lift the naval blockade on Iran, even if Tehran agrees to open the Strait of Hormuz. The US side fears that lifting the blockade would enable Iran to refill its coffers and provide it with much more time. Tehran would use this reprieve not to strike a deal with Washington, but to prolong the conflict for teh purpose of destroying Trump’s presidency.

Tehran, in turn, is unlikely to give any concessions of significance unless Trump lifts the blockade. Trump’s refusal to do so is interpreted by the Iranians as a reflection of his desire to overthrow the Islamic Republic or force it to surrender.

To break such a deadlock, small steps like the meeting in New York may prove useful, if not necessary. But thus far, while the resumption of (indirect) talks is a breakthrough of sorts, it is not course correction: The US and Iran are unfortunately still headed toward another round of war.

I am also linking to my conversation with Glenn Diesen from earlier this week. It quickly went to very dark places. But the situation in the Middle East/US/Iran is unravelling, and measures and scenarios that were unthinkable just a few months ago are increasingly being discussed at the government level. So we had to have an honest conversation about these previously unthinkable scenarios.

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‘Survival Mode’ – Farmers Crushed As Trump’s War On Iran Sends Diesel Cost Soaring

As Donald Trump’s war on Iran nears the seven-month mark, the economic damage is reverberating all over the world, and all across the United States. Among the Americans who are feeling the most pain from a war their federal legislators never declared are the nation’s farmers, who are growing increasingly desperate under the weight of rising costs for diesel, fertilizer and equipment.

It’s a demographic that leans hard to the right, but now feels let down by Trump and others in Washington. “It’s his war that caused this, this war in Iran. We’re not winning that war. And many farmers feel like we shouldn’t be there,” farmer John Boyd, Jr told CNN. Trump says the war in Iran is necessary to prevent the country from building a nuclear weapon. However, going back to 2007 and up to the eve of the war, the US intelligence committee has repeatedly assessed that Iran was not building one. 

“I’ve done this 34 years. I have never worried and stressed like I have the last year,” North Carolina farmer Matt Bell told CBS News. “We’ve cut everything we can cut.” Trying every option he can think of to improve his cash flow, Bell has put off replacing equipment, produced some of his own fertilizer, and opened a pumpkin patch and hayride business for the fall. The rising costs come after a difficult period had already weakened his operation’s financial security. 

“The last several years in agriculture have been terrible, and we have just cut the fat anywhere we could. But we’re just getting to the point now there’s nothing left to cut. You cannot run without fuel. You cannot run without fertilizer. You have to have that,” Bell said. 

As a result of a major reduction in oil exports from the Persian Gulf, the nationwide average cost for a gallon of diesel hit $6.49 this week, up 75% from a year ago, according to the AAA. Lately, the price volatility has led Bell’s diesel distributors to offer price quotations that are only good for a matter of hours. He’d budgeted $35,000 for fuel in 2026, but blew past that number in August. “Every piece of equipment on this farm runs on diesel,” he emphasized. 

In an interview with Sky News, Texas cattle rancher Lynn Fleming said her August outlay for few was almost double what she’d paid in recent years. “Obviously the main [factor] is what we’re facing everyday with the Iranian situation,” Fleming said. Her husband, Robert, said he felt blindsided by the war. “We had no idea that he was going to pull the prank with the Strait of Hormuz. He didn’t tell us … he was going to go do the military maneuvers and try to control the oil supply over there. We had no warning of what was going to happen.” A major cornerstone of Trump’s 2024 campaign was his pledge to be a “peace president” who would refrain from starting any new wars.    

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Unknown Flying Object Observed Over Iran Last Night – What Was It?

This was seen in the sky over Iran tonight. What the hell is it? Are we looking at a UFO?

Al Jazeera also reported on the sighting.

A mysterious object filmed hovering over Tehran has sparked online speculation, with theories ranging from a children’s kite to advanced military surveillance equipment, while Iranian authorities have not identified it.

If the US was trying to get some attention and scare the hell out of the terrorist Islamic regime ruling over Iran, I would think this worked. Some individuals believe this is the TR-3B that has been reported in the past. Could it be?

|The unidentified glowing object spotted in the night sky over Tehran’s Azadegan Expressway on the evening of September 20 was neither the first nor the last of its kind. While U.S. officials have consistently denied the existence of the TR-3B for three decades, the appearance of a triangular craft over Iranian airspace reveals a distinct pattern: the U.S. is utilizing its most classified aircraft to conduct missions in Iranian airspace that it publicly denies undertaking.

TR-3B “Black Manta”: America’s Deepest Secret

The TR-3B “Black Manta” is an anti-gravity tactical reconnaissance aircraft allegedly developed in secret by the U.S. under the “Aurora” program, utilizing funding from the SDI (Strategic Defense Initiative) and “black budget” resources.

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Bessent Says Rates Will Drop When Iran War Ends, Defends Trump On Media Ban And AI Policy

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent was a guest on CNBC’s Squawk Box this morning and covered a lot of ground including the interest rates, the China trade talks, AI accountability and the President’s decision to ban the White House press corps of MS NOW, CNN and Politico.

Bessent, in an interview that aired Monday morning on CNBC’s Squawk Box, shrugged off last week’s decision by the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates to 3.75% to 4% — its first rate hike since February 2023. “Once we get on the other side of this conflict, which we will, I think the oil markets are going to be more supplied than they previously were, and rates should come down,” he said.

Right now the 10-year note is yielding at 5% plus or minus on the treasuries. That’s up 100 basis points since the war with Iran began in late February. He admitted that the Treasury Department’s $5 billion plus buyback of 10- and 20-year notes on September 10 did nothing to bring down the yields on long-term bonds in the aftermath of the announcement. However, he said they would have gone up even more without the announcement.

“Since President Trump has come in, the U.S. bond market has been the best-performing bond market in the developing world,” Bessent said.

The official also spoke at length about his 12-hour meeting on Sunday with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng ahead of the Trump-Xi summit at the White House later this week. He outlined a safety framework for AI with He and established a channel to deal with any future incidents — whether caused by “uncontrollable agents,” nonstate cyber attackers, or even bioweapons. He also spoke about the November 10 expiration of the U.S.-China trade truce and how Iran’s biggest trading partner is China.

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Bessent Declares All Iran Airlines To Be ‘Shut Down Around The World’ Wednesday

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent declared on Monday that by Wednesday Sept. 23, “all the Iranian airlines will be shut down around the world.“

“If they land, you cannot provide them with fuel, you cannot provide them with landing services, you cannot sell them tickets, or you will be knocked out of the dollar system,” he described.

The new warning and ‘promise’ was issued after the US earlier this month imposed sanctions on “all remaining Iranian airlines” which had yet to face such penalties – thus Bessent’s new declaration is that these entities are about to collapse under the weight of Washington actions, which now is to include secondary targeting.

The Treasury Department has also lately targeted Iranian companies and industries supporting Iran’s aviation sector.

Some 27 airlines have already been sanctioned – also most recently the major Mahan Air has faced expanded sanctions (after first being targeted by Washington all the way back in 2011).

The Treasury has famed all of this as part of efforts to deny the Iranian government the ability to move “weapons, personnel, and illicit cargo”.

Bessent stated to CNBC that all Iranian airlines will be shut down globally on Sept. 23 – given that any fuel, landing, and ticket providers involved with the companies risk dollar-system exclusion.

Ironically, Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian and his delegation is expected to fly into New York City just the day prior, on Tuesday – to attend the UN General Assembly. He is set to give a formal address to the UN body on Wednesday.

This will provide rare opportunity for potential White House diplomacy to take place on the sidelines, which could happen as early as Tuesday.

As for the heavily sanctioned aviation industry, in recent years the Islamic Republic has suffered some significant aerial disasters, which included the May 19, 2024 death of President Ebrahim Raisi. His military helicopter went down in a rugged, mountainous area of northwestern Iran.

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$28 Billion in Munitions Later, What’s Left for a China Fight?

Twenty-eight billion dollars buys a tremendous amount of ammunition. It also raises a fairly important question when much of what was fired can’t quickly be replaced.

A new U.S. Central Command estimate puts the cost of the Iran war at roughly $43.6 billion through September 3. About $28.1 billion of that total reflects munitions expended during the conflict, an increase of more than $6 billion in weapons costs in barely a month.

From the Associated Press:

The financial cost is just one measure of the impact of the Iran war, which also is affecting oil prices and the stock market and has led to deaths and injuries of American troops. The political costs will be calculated in November’s midterm congressional elections, with Republicans facing increasing headwinds from the war’s unpopularity.

The latest cost estimate has emerged as the Trump administration pushes for a historic $1.5 trillion military budget proposal. The White House also is asking Congress to approve a $95 billion package that would help fund the Iran war and other priorities.

The Congressional Budget Office looked at the same war from another direction. Its Sept. 15 assessment estimated roughly $38 billion in Defense Department costs through Aug. 1, including replacement weapons, lost equipment, increased flying hours, operations, and fuel.

The dollars weren’t the CBO’s biggest warning.

The CBO identified America’s heavy expenditure of missile-defense interceptors as the conflict’s main military opportunity cost. The agency says U.S. interceptor inventories will remain reduced for several years because replacements can’t simply be produced overnight.

Then, the CBO brought up China.

A reduced interceptor stockpile would become especially troublesome during a conflict with an enemy possessing large inventories of ballistic and cruise missiles. The CBO specifically identified China and noted those weapons would probably play a major role in military conflict involving Taiwan.

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WW3 Near-Miss? AI Hallucinated Nuclear Weapons Components Aboard Chinese Vessel Bound For Iran

Could runaway artificial intelligence (AI) spark a future WW3?

We don’t need movies like Terminator 2 and its SkyNet to help us imagine this, it’s 2026 and there is already a terrifying real-world precedent that could have kicked off a shooting war with nuclear-armed China.

A human analyst within the US intelligence community utilized data gathered by AI for a report that was later widely circulated across classified Pentagon channels, except that the chatbot which was relied upon in effect hallucinated nuclear weapons components being transported aboard a Chinese vessel bound for Iran.

Naturally this set off the highest alerts in Washington in the middle of an active hot war which President Trump launched ostensibly to prevent this very thing – Iran obtaining a nuke and atomic weapons components.

From there military planning kicked into high gear, with a special forces boarding operation imminent. Supposedly elite assets were already airborne, ready to descend on the Chinese ship in question.

But then, “the operation was halted only after officials took a closer look at the intelligence report and discovered that it had been produced with assistance from an AI chatbot,” CNN reports in a bombshell Friday exclusive. The episode reportedly happened last spring.

The severe error was realized with barely enough time to call off what could have been the geopolitical blunder and disaster of the century, “The chatbot had incorrectly identified the material the vessel was carrying.“

In essence the United States found itself based on completely manufactured ‘intel’ potentially headed for conflict with China.

As if to to preempt anyone who might be tempted to think the account is merely being hyperbolic or needlessly sensational, one official (unnamed) source told CNN that the intelligence assessment, which was “entirely false” – in the end “almost started a war.“

While Pentagon leadership, including US Special Operations Command Pacific, has yet to respond to CNN’s queries, the outlet pieces together the alleged chain of events and how this could have possibly happened in the following:

In this particular instance, the analyst queried a chatbot about some intelligence reporting on the ship’s manifest that originated with US Special Operations Command Pacific, based in Hawaii. It was not clear whether the chatbot was a commercially available one or a US government product.

“The internal tools are mostly just copies of the commercial stuff wearing lipstick,” a former senior US official familiar with the AI systems used by military and intelligence analysts.

The bot fused together open-source intelligence with secret signals intelligence in government holdings and reached its fateful conclusion about the material the ship was carrying.

The analyst then used AI again to package the findings into a standard intelligence report — the kind that is trusted by military officials — and disseminated it.

The report seems to be suggesting that the unknown AI tool that was utilized would be deemed substandard and weak for such an important assessment in the first place.

Further “comforting” for readers is that given heavy AI-integration seems the “irreversible” trend of the day across the DoD/Depart of War and IC, similar near-misses in the near and distant future are bound to happen.

CNN underscores, “Across the US military and the intelligence community, officials are pushing to weave AI into nearly every facet of their work, from analyzing the huge volumes of raw intelligence the US collects and selecting targets for strikes, to more mundane applications like managing budgeting, logistics and supply chains.”

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War, What Is It Good For?

I was almost six years old when the Korean War began and Korea was a mere 7,000 or so miles from Washington, D.C. I’m now 82 years old and my country is at war with Iran, whose capital, Tehran, is — phew! — only about 6,300 miles from Washington, D.C. What a relief!

By the time I’m 110, there’s a dim possibility that, should that be a pattern (and don’t forget Vietnam, a mere 9,000 miles from Washington; Afghanistan, a mere 7,000 miles away; or Iraq, a mere 6,000-odd miles offshore of the United States, all of which suggest that distance has indeed been a significant — and significantly unnerving — part of American imperial warmaking since 1945), the U.S. might be warring with a country merely 5,000-odd miles from our capital. And by the time I’m 126, the war of that moment might, for all I know, be right next door. (Of course, if Donald Trump, who would then be 124 years old, is still president, it might even be in Canada, “our cherished Fifty First State.”)

I should, in truth, be more used to my country’s distant wars by now. After all, I can still remember my opposition to the Vietnam War, a moment when I actually took to the streets and turned in my draft card in public protest — yes, back then, the military wasn’t an all-volunteer outfit — and also learned how to be a draft counselor to help potential draftees like me, who were against that all too literal war from hell.

Almost 60 years later, I find it strange that my country is once again fighting a distant war for reasons that, at best, make no sense whatsoever to me, and at worst are simply horrific and repetitive beyond belief. It’s a war that, as the New York Times reported, was essentially sold to the president by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, as a “near-certain victory” against a weak Iranian regime that would prove incapable (no question about it!) of blockading the Strait of Hormuz, could do little harm to America’s allies in the Middle East, and “could foster the conditions for the Iranian opposition to overthrow the regime.”

Yes, it’s true that my country may indeed have been the most imperial — in the sense of influencing so much of the world — country in history with a truly global reach. Of course, there were also the other two great powers of the last half century. There was the Soviet Union — now, Vladimir Putin’s Russia, which, to give him credit of an unnerving sort, is at least fighting his nightmarish war against Ukraine right at or near its own border rather than in Asia, Africa, or Latin America. And then there is China, which has so far proven itself a remarkable imperial force by having but a single military base anywhere else on the planet — unlike the 750 American ones scattered around the globe — and not fighting a war anywhere other than not particularly successfully against Vietnam in 1979 and border skirmishes with India in 2020 and 2021 (which, historically speaking on this planet of ours, is almost the imperial equivalent of pacifism).

No such luck for the United States of Donald J. Trump, of course. “Our” latest president has continued a tradition now more than 75 years old of launching distant wars that simply never succeed. Never.

You would think, of course, that there might be some extremely modest learning curve when it came to such conflicts, but if so, you would think wrong. Logical as that might appear, it’s proven to be anything but the reality of our world. And after so many failed wars globally, that’s once again our reality in relation to Iran, despite the fact that “our” president in his first term in office offered this description of himself: “They said: ‘He will start a war.’ I’m not going to start a war. I’m going to stop wars.”

And curiously enough, with the exception of an ongoing conflict in Syria, he stuck to his… oh, sorry, but it is the phrase… guns then. No such luck recently, of course. And Iran is turning into a disaster first class, while the harm to that country is, as with all such wars (remember the millions killed in Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia), or at least should be considered, unbearable. And mind you, while “our” president was turning our world into an ever greater mess at home and abroad, he was still planning to extend his renaming frenzy from the Gulf of Mexico (oh, sorry, the Gulf of America) and Lake Ontario (oh, sorry, again, Lake America) to the Strait of Hormuz, which he was hoping, believe it or not, could be renamed the “Trump Strait.” As he wrote at his Truth Social account, “Now that we have it under U.S.A. control, should we change the name Hormuz Strait to TRUMP STRAIT??? Like America itself, it would be ‘hotter’ than ever before! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP.”

Imagine that, will you — not that the Strait of Whatever You Want to Call It was, in fact, faintly under American control.

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Pentagon’s Iran war costs hit $38 billion in five months – budget office

The US war with Iran cost the Pentagon approximately $38 billion in its first five months, according to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). The bill could rise by another $2 billion to $3 billion for every additional month of fighting – and by more if hostilities intensify.

In a report released on Tuesday, the CBO estimated Defense Department expenses from the start of US combat operations on February 28 through August 1. The figure includes the estimated cost of replacing expended munitions and equipment lost in battle, as well as additional flying hours, military operations, and higher fuel costs.

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US Troops Leak New Iran War Photos Of Gulf Bases: ‘Major Damage Hidden From American Public’

As we’ve been documenting, it is clear that major damage has yet to be communicated to the American public regarding Iran’s major retaliation on US bases in the Gulf and Mideast since the start of Trump’s Operation Epic Fury. 

During the same week that a long awaited Pentagon/Department of War Inspector General’s report was released covering the first four months of the Iran War, new leaked photographs have emerged of never-before-seen base damage.

“New photos obtained exclusively by CBS News reveal for the first time the widespread damage and destruction of buildings and vehicles at multiple U.S. positions across the Middle East, as a result of Iranian missile and drone attacks,” according to a bombshell Tuesday CBS report.

The outlet describes that the photos have been submitted by US service members under strict secrecy and anonymity – given the Pentagon has sought to enforce a crackdown on troops sharing the extent of damage, and amid orders aimed at maintaining operational security. But critics say the Pentagon and Trump administration are engaged in a cover-up and propaganda. 

“This is major damage to our bases that hasn’t been communicated to the American public,” an actively deployed unnamed service member said to CBS News.

The service member added: “We’re standing there with our eyes closed getting punched in the face.”

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