Tag: iran

The very first story on the Drudge Report on both April 23 and 24 was headlined with a quote from Bernard Arnault saying if the Iran war was not quickly settled, it could be a “world catastrophe.”

I apparently do not keep up with world business as much as I should, because I did not know that Arnault is one the three richest men in the world along with Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos. They trade first, second and third depending on fluctuating stock prices.
Arnault heads a French conglomerate, LVMH, which specializes in luxury brands like Louis Vuitton and many others. He bought a struggling Christian Dior in 1984 for $15 million and Tiffany & Co. in 2021 for over $15 billion.

Arnault told the annual meeting of his Company: “Either it (the Iran War) will be a world catastrophe with very serious and very negative economic impacts – in which case, who can say how 2026 will unfold – or it will be resolved more rapidly in some shape or form that we all hope for – even if it doesn’t seem easy – in which case businesses will recover and resume their normal course.”

Newt Gingrich, the former Speaker of the House, almost always tries to speak in a positive way about Republican chances in elections. But he told the New York Times on April 28 that if the elections were in May, Republicans would lose.

He said: “The war, the sense of affordability, and gasoline – some of that has to be cleared up in order to win. If it doesn’t change, I’ll start tearing my hair out.”
President Trump is in an almost impossible situation. He is in between possibly the greatest rock and hard place in history.

I think Trump realizes that both the U.S. economy and the world economy will be greatly damaged and possibly go in to a major recession if the war is not ended very soon. JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said it “will be worse than people think.”
The President seems to be trying very hard to reach an agreement, but he knows Israel wants to go in the other direction and escalate the war even further. And he knows the Israel Lobby has almost total control of the Congress and will go along with Netanyahu no matter what.

John Mearsheimer is a West Point graduate, Air Force veteran, and longtime professor at the University of Chicago. He is one of the most well-respected foreign policy experts in this Country.

In an interview on April 27, he said “The world economy is teetering, and the longer this war goes on the worse the damage… and if we go up the escalation ladder, it will be another hammer blow to the world economy.”

He added: “Israel wants to continue the war. They want us to continue hammering away at Iran to try to beat them into submission and if we can’t beat them into submission, well we’ll just destroy them and do what we did in Gaza to Iran.”

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We noted in Part 1 that when confronted with the failure of 44 days of bombing Iran “back-to-the-stone-age”and, also, thankfully, being reluctant to send American boots into a Gallipoli-scale slaughter on the ground, the Donald turned to his goofy Secy of Treasury for a 4-D chess move.

To wit, a blockade of the Gulf of Oman, which commenced on April 13th. The latter was supposed to dry-up Iran’s cash flow from global oil sales and to then fill its oil storage tanks full to the rim, thereby causing the pipelines connecting to its 3.5 million b/d oil production apparatus to back up and then explode in a post-constipationary release.

Alas, the Donald’s genius boy band – also including Pete Hegseth and Little Marco Rubio – forget the elephant in the room. To wit, it was always a question of which of the dueling blockades – Iran’s at the Strait of Hormuz or the US Navy’s outside of the SOH on the Gulf of Oman – would run out of time first.

However, you only had to know a little bit about the world’s 103 million barrel per day petroleum supply, demand and storage system, and a tad more about oilfield engineering, production management and storage systems, to realize that there was never a doubt as to the outcome.

Namely, that the true-believers who run Iran, and in the face of an existential threat to their regime, were destined to outlast the world economy’s ability to function without the Persian Gulf’s massive flows of hydrocarbons and its derivatives. These crucial ingredients of global economic life ordinarily transit the Strait of Hormuz (SOH) to the tune of 30 million BOEs (barrels of oil equivalent) each and every day.

Of course, the truth is that the Donald is lazy, impatient and impulsive—and therefore is always ready to run with a factoid or cockamamie notion that suits his purposes at the moment. And regardless of whether it happens to be true, valid, plausible and or even rational.

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In a recent editorial exhorting President Trump to stay the course in Iran, the Wall Street Journal wrote, “Democrats in Congress are hoping for Mr. Trump’s failure in Iran, as if that wouldn’t also be America’s.”

For the life of me, I don’t see how Trump’s failure in Iran would also be America’s failure in Iran. I wish the Journal had explained its reasoning. I hope it still does.

This is Trump’s war. Not America’s. Trump’s!

Let’s keep in mind some basic facts. Trump launched this war all on his own. Well, okay, not entirely on his own. He launched it in consultation and partnership with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The two of them got together and decided to initiate their war on Iran, clearly thinking that it would be over within a few short weeks.

One fact is undisputed. Trump did not go to Congress, which consists of the elected representatives of the American people, to secure a declaration of war before launching his war of aggression on Iran. He (as well as the Wall Street Journal editorial board) knows full well that that is what the U.S. Constitution requires. The Constitution is the law. It is the higher law that we the people have imposed on Trump and all other federal officials. Trump is required to obey our law, just as the American people are required to obey laws enacted by Congress (and enforced by Trump and other executive branch officials).

Trump chose not to obey the law. He chose to break it. He chose to launch his war on Iran all on his own. He knew that when he launched his war, he was breaking the law — our law — the law of the Constitution.

Therefore, how in the world can Trump’s illegal war, which he launched without the consent of the American people, as required by law, possibly be converted into America’s war? I just don’t get it. I wish the Journal’s editorial board would explain its reasoning. If Trump’s illegal war of aggression against Iran results in his failure, why isn’t that his failure alone? Why is it also the failure of our country?

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