Futures Soar On Optimism For Tariff Deals

After three days of big losses and record-breaking volatility, equity futures are rebounding sharply following somewhat soothing comments from Treasury Secretary Bessent (although how long the relative calm lasts is anyone’s guess, given there’s little clarity about what Trump wants in exchange for cutting tariffs). As of 8:10am, S&P futures are 2.9% higher, a bounce which started around the time we informed readers that Goldman’s head of risk of risk had turned bullish yesterday afternoonNasdaq futures are up 2.7%, with all Mag7 names higher with Semis and Cyclicals also outperforming. European and Asian markets are also broadly higher. The VIX is down 10 vols below 40, while Chinese ADRs are mixed. Bond yields have reversed earlier losses and are up 1bp to 4.22% with the USD dropping. Todays’ macro data focus is the Small Business Optimism report which saw sentiment tumble to 97.4 from 100.7 the lowest since the Trump election (Hiring Plans also slumped; these tend to have a lagged but positive correlation to NFP).

In premarket trading, Nvidia is leading the Magnificent Seven higher (Nvidia +4%, Amazon +3.3%, Meta +3%, Tesla +3.0%, Alphabet +2.5%, Apple +1.6%, Microsoft little changed). Health insurance stocks are rallying after the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services finalized a 5.06% average increase in payments to Medicare Advantage plans from 2025 to 2026, an increase from its earlier projection (Humana +14%, Alignment Healthcare +10%, CVS +8.8%, UnitedHealth +7.2%, Centene +4.9%). Here are some other notable premarket movers:

  • Agco Corp. (AGCO) rises 2% after Citi upgraded the agricultural equipment company to buy, saying that the company is “favorably positioned given its ~65% exposure to Europe and South America, which we anticipate recovering ahead” of North America.
  • Blackstone (BX) rises 3% after the private equity firm is upgraded to market outperform from market perform at Citizens.
  • Chegg (CHGG) falls 2% as JPMorgan downgrades its rating to underweight, saying the education technology company is facing secular headwinds.
  • CME (CME) rises 2.5% and Charles Schwab (SCHW) gains 3.4% after Morgan Stanley upgrades its ratings across exchange operators and brokers in a hunt for more defensive exposure.
  • El Pollo Loco (LOCO) rises 10% after receiving an unsolicited, non-binding indication of interest from Biglari Capital Corp.
  • Eli Lilly & Co (LLY) climbs 2% after Goldman Sachs upgraded the obesity drugmaker to buy, citing a “compelling entry point into the sector’s premier topline grower” at current levels.
  • Levi Strauss (LEVI) jumps 11% after the apparel retailer maintained its full-year outlook in the face of sweeping new US tariffs that are poised to significantly raise costs for multinational apparel companies.
  • Marvell Technology (MRVL) climbs 4% after Infineon agreed to buy the chip designer’s automotive networking business for $2.5 billion. The deal makes sense given the firm’s strategic focus on artificial intelligence, analysts say.
  • Nu Holdings (NU) rises 4% after JPMorgan upgraded the bank to overweight, saying “even in our more conservative estimates we see Nu growing earnings more than 30% in next 3 years, something hard to find.”
  • Teradata Corp. (TDC) rises 4% after Morgan Stanley upgraded the database management company to overweight, saying “we acknowledge the company remains a model in transition with risk of extending sales cycles,” but at the current valuation, “we believe this is more than priced in.”

Traders are dipping back into risk assets after one of the most brutal selloffs in years, with some taking hints that President Donald Trump might be willing to ease his position on trade terms after Japan pushed ahead with talks. That sent the Nikkei 225 index to a 6% surge. Goldman traders are turning outright bullish anticipating a big bounce in stocks here, with many citing expectations that Trump will cut trade deals.

“The Trump administration is signaling his openness to trade deals,” said Elias Haddad, a strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman. “Regardless, the pervasive uncertainty created by continuously changing US tariff threats and the scope of potential retaliatory measures remain a major blow to the global economy. Bottom line: relief rallies in risk assets will likely be short-lived.”

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Trump’s Reciprocal Tariffs Prompt Japan Trade Negotiations with U.S.

President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs have helped open trade negotiations between the United States and one of its key economic partners — Japan.

Last week, Trump announced reciprocal tariffs, a policy that has the United States set tariffs based on the rate that each country in the world imposes on the U.S. For Japan, the tariff rate with the U.S. is now 24 percent.

As a result, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is looking to negotiate trade with the Trump administration.

“Countries from all over the world are talking to us. Tough but fair parameters are being set. Spoke to the Japanese Prime Minister this morning. He is sending a top team to negotiate!” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “They have treated the U.S. very poorly on trade. They don’t take our cars, but we take MILLIONS of theirs. Likewise, agriculture, and many other ‘things.’ It all has to change, but especially with CHINA!!!”

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Taiwan Offers Zero Tariffs and More Investment in U.S.

Taiwanese President William Lai Ching-te on Sunday proposed zero tariffs, lower trade barriers, and more investment in the United States instead of retaliating against President Donald Trump’s tariff increases.

President Trump’s tariff announcement on Wednesday included 32 percent on all Taiwanese exports except semiconductors, which are Taiwan’s most celebrated and economically significant product.

Trump had threatened in March to include Taiwanese semiconductors on his tariff list, because he said Taiwan “stole” the industry from America with unfair trade practices.

“They stole it from us. They took it from us, and I don’t blame them. I give them credit. I blame the people that were sitting in this seat because they allowed it to happen,” Trump said in March.

The president’s position on Taiwanese semiconductors softened a little after the island’s biggest chipmaker, TSMC, pledged to spend $100 billion on five new semiconductor factories in Arizona over the next four years.

Officials in Taipei were stunned when Trump slapped 32-percent tariffs on everything except semiconductors last week. Taiwanese cabinet spokeswoman Michelle Lee called the tariffs “deeply unreasonable” and “highly regrettable.”

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We Didn’t Start the Trade War—We’ve Just Finally Joined It

When President Donald Trump slapped a fresh round of tariffs on European and Asian imports, the professional hand-wringers and legacy press clodpolls sprang into choreographed action.

Headlines and television anchors blared warnings of trade wars, economic isolation, and diplomatic fallout. The bureaucratic priesthood that worships at the altar of “free trade” without reciprocity—from Brussels to Brookings—launched into familiar homilies: tariffs are regressive, Trump is reckless, and globalism is gospel.

But let’s pause the hysteria momentarily and apply something vanishingly rare in today’s media-industrial complex: perspective.

The prevailing orthodoxy treats tariffs as anathema to prosperity—an outdated relic of 19th-century mercantilism. But this overlooks a simple truth: for trade to be free, it must also be fair. For decades, American policymakers—both Democrats and Republicans—have tolerated a grotesquely asymmetrical global trade regime that has hollowed out the American industrial base and made us dangerously dependent on foreign powers, friend and foe alike.

Trump’s critics are wrong. These tariffs aren’t a calamity. They’re a much-needed course correction

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Art of the Deal: EU Offers Trump ‘Zero-for-Zero Tariffs’ on Industrial Goods with United States

EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on Monday that the bloc has offered a “zero-for-zero tariff” trade arrangement on industrial goods with the United States in a bid to avoid a full-on trade war.

While the EU chief continued to condemn the reciprocal tariff measures enacted by U.S. President Donald Trump to rectify the long-standing transatlantic trade imbalance, as pressure from the markets began to take shape, Von der Leyen and other top eurocrats expressed willingness to negotiate with the White House.

“We stand ready to negotiate with the US,” the EU president said. “We have offered zero-for-zero tariffs for industrial goods as we have successfully done with many other trading partners. Because Europe is always ready for a good deal. So we keep it on the table.”

However, the German politician did not address other significant areas of concern expressed by the Trump administration, such as restrictions on American food imports or, perhaps more significantly, on EU tariffs against U.S. made automobiles, which currently stand at around four times the rate European cars are taxed when sent to the United States.

Von der Leyen warned that Brussels is “prepared to respond through countermeasures and defend our interests if the trade dispute continues.” The EU chief said that Brussels will take a two-pronged approach towards the Trump tariffs, firstly by reducing internal barriers within the bloc — as opposed to reducing further barriers with the U.S. — and of “diversifying” Europe’s trading partners.

“This is why we are deepening our relations with our trading partners: You know the deals we have done with Mercosur, Mexico, Switzerland, and we are working with India, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia and many others. With that, we want to be very clear: Europe stands together for our businesses and with our businesses for all Europeans in the European Union and beyond,” she said.

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Tariffs Also Counter VAT Taxes, Currency Manipulation, Dumping, Export Subsidies, Fake Standards

During an appearance on FNC’s “Sunday Morning Futures,” White House senior economic counselor Peter Navarro explained the long-term implications for the Trump administration’s tariffs and how they will function to ensure fair trade for the United States.

“Let’s not forget, every economic report that’s been coming out in the last month has been pushing us towards expansion and strength,” Navarro said. “And we just had a blowout jobs number on Friday, 228,000 jobs. That was 50 percent higher than was predicted. So, again, there’s cognitive dissonance between what the media is saying, wanted to push us into recession, and what’s actually happening. I think you’re right, Jackie, that the tariff and trade policy is just one chapter in a book that contains all these other beautiful things that we’re going to do. If you just take, for example, the oil prices, oil prices were a dollar higher during the Biden years. For a commuting, working family, that’s about $1,000 worth of gas prices they had to pay. We’re going to get that back for them. These tariff revenues, by the way, Jackie, $600 billion, $700 billion they are going to raise a year, $6 trillion to $7 trillion over the 10-year period. They’re going to help pay for the tax cuts. I will tell you this, Jackie. Every single dollar that comes in, in tariff revenues that we take from the foreigners who have been cheating us are going to go right to the American public in terms of tax cuts and debt reduction.”

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Why is Trump Using Tariffs? The Truth That Has Misled the World on Tariffs

For all the criticism of Trump and the risk of a global trade war, as Macron wants to unleash a trade war to elevate France to the top of the EU, if we just look at the data, we can see why Trump has taken this approach. Even those Republicans like Rand Paul joining the Democrats in calling tariffs a tax, none of them are looking at this issue objectively or seriously. Under the Biden Administration, not only was there a wholesale invasion of illegal immigrants, but on the trade front, he paid no attention at all, and most seemed to assume he was too senile to pay attention.

They are resoundingly calling Trump insane, mainly because they have something to lose. Free Trade has been one-sided. There is a risk that France will push to impose trade barriers against others to support their Marxist agenda. That will be devastating, but we see the world economy headed into a recession for the USA, yet a Depression for the EU. The fact that Trump imposed a 10% tariff on the UK but 20% on the EU is actually driving a wedge between Starmer’s dream of overruling BREXIT to get back into the Marxist utopia of the EU.

In addition, the belligerence of Macron is having an impact. There is a growing discontent with the European Union and the 20% tariff on the EU, with Macron vowing that full retaliation may prove to be the wedge that starts the fragmentation of the EU. Hungary has its own currency and can quickly leave the EU and resume trade with both the USA and Russia. Ukraine has long suppressed the Hungarian people trapped within the boundaries of Ukraine. The same is true for all of those members questioning the EU yet did not join the euro.

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Trump’s Tariff Order Is Clear, Strategic, and Necessary—Critics Just Aren’t Reading It

Critics of President Trump’s April 2, 2025, executive order on tariffs argue that the policy lacks clarity or direction. Yet the order is anything but vague. In fact, it offers one of the most detailed diagnoses of America’s structural trade imbalances in decades—backed by specific data, a national security framework, and a roadmap for restoring fairness in global trade.

The problem isn’t the order’s content—it’s that few critics have bothered to read it.

At the heart of the executive order is the assertion that large and persistent U.S. goods trade deficits—totaling $1.2 trillion in 2024 and up over 40% in just five years—represent an “unusual and extraordinary threat” to America’s economy and national security.

These deficits, it explains, are not merely the result of market forces but the product of “disparate tariff rates and non-tariff barriers” erected by America’s trading partners.

The order doesn’t just assert this—it proves it. According to the World Trade Organization, the U.S. has one of the world’s lowest simple average Most-Favored-Nation (MFN) tariff rates at 3.3%.

In comparison: Brazil charges 11.2%, China 7.5%, the European Union 5.0%, India 17%, and Vietnam 9.4%.

The imbalance becomes even more striking in specific sectors. The U.S. imposes just a 2.5% tariff on passenger vehicle imports with internal combustion engines, while the EU charges 10%, China 15%, and India a staggering 70%. On network switches and routers, the U.S. imposes no tariff at all, but India levies 10%.

For apples, the U.S. allows duty-free imports; meanwhile, India charges 50% and Turkey over 60%. These are not rhetorical flourishes—they are hard data used effectively to show just how unreciprocated U.S. market access has become.

More importantly, the order does not treat trade policy as a narrow economic matter—it places it squarely within the realm of national security.

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Trump’s Tariffs Are Working — Here Are All The Countries Already Backing Down

President Trump’s tariffs are already having an impact.

Earlier this week, Trump announced a sweeping new trade policy that included a universal 10 percent tariff on all imports into the United States.

In addition to this baseline measure, the administration introduced a system of reciprocal tariffs targeting countries with significant trade surpluses over the U.S.

The tariffs vary in severity, with higher rates imposed on nations deemed to have particularly unbalanced trade relationships or who refuse to buy American goods.

However, many countries are already offering the U.S. concessions:

Vietnam — Following the announcement of a nearly 50 percent tariff on their imports, Vietnam has immediately entered negotiations with the White House.

President Trump reported a “very productive call” with Vietnam’s Communist Party General Secretary To Lam, during which Lam expressed a willingness to reduce tariffs to zero contingent on the signing of a free trade agreement.

India — India has initiated discussions with the U.S. to address the trade barriers.

Officials are reportedly exploring the possibility of reducing or eliminating tariffs on certain U.S. imports and increasing purchases of American goods.

Israel — Israel wants to negotiate terms and potentially secure exemptions or reductions and has already agreed to scrap all its tariffs on U.S. imports.

Prime Minister Netanyahu will further discuss the issue with Trump on Monday.

European Union (27 countries) — The EU has proposed lowering car tariffs and increasing purchases of U.S. energy and military equipment in an effort to negotiate exemptions and reductions.

Trump has long complained about the EU’s unwilligness to buy American cars.

Japan — Japan has signaled a willingness to negotiate by pledging increased imports of U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) and investments in artificial intelligence.

South Korea — South Korea is looking at possible trade concessions that would involve leveraging strategic sectors like semiconductors to reach a favorable agreement.

Thailand — Facing the prospect of billions in losses, the Thai government is planning to increase imports from the U.S. and reduce tariffs on American products to address the trade imbalance. 

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Other Countries Seem To Like Tariffs… So Why Are People Opposed To Trump’s Tariffs?

April 3, President Donald Trump announced it as “Liberation Day.” And by that he meant we were going to be liberated from asymmetrical tariffs of the last 50 years. And it was going to inaugurate a new what he called “golden age” of trade parity, greater investment in the United States, but mostly, greater job opportunities and higher-paying jobs for Americans.

And yet, the world seemed to erupt in anger. It was very strange. 

Even people on the libertarian right and, of course, the left were very angry. The Wall Street Journal pilloried Donald Trump.

But here’s my question. 

China has prohibitive tariffs, so does Vietnam, so does Mexico, so does Europe. 

So do a lot of countries. 

So does India. 

But if tariffs are so destructive of their economies, why is China booming? 

How did India become an economic powerhouse when it has these exorbitant tariffs on American imports? 

How did Vietnam, of all places, become such a different country even though it has these prohibitive tariffs? 

Why isn’t Germany, before its energy problems, why wasn’t it a wreck? It’s got tariffs on almost everything that we send them. 

How is the EU even functioning with these tariffs?

I thought tariffs destroyed an economy, but they seem to like them. And they’re angry that they’re no longer asymmetrical. 

Apparently, people who are tariffing us think tariffs improve their economy. Maybe they’re right. I don’t know.

The second thing is, why would you get angry at the person who is reacting to the asymmetrical tariff and not the people who inaugurated the tariff?

Why is Canada mad at us when it’s running a $63 billion surplus and it has tariffs on some American products at 250%. Doesn’t it seem like the people who started this asymmetrical—if I could use the word—trade war should be the culpable people, not the people who are reluctantly reacting to it?

Sort of like Ukraine and Russia. Russia invaded Ukraine. Do we blame Ukraine for defending itself and trying to reciprocate? No, we don’t. We don’t blame America because it finally woke up and said, “Whatever they tariff us we’re gonna tariff them.” 

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