Tag: debt

Washington’s Fiscal Doom-Loop

With U.S. gross debt now at a staggering $37 trillion—roughly equivalent to the combined debt of all other major advanced economies—Washington is trapped in a fiscal doom loop of its own making. Decades of bipartisan overspending have pushed the nation to a point where a mere 1% increase in mean Treasury interest rates adds $370 billion to annual debt service costs. The arithmetic is unforgiving. Yet, Donald Trump’s second administration is doubling down, pursuing policies that risk accelerating the crisis.

Consider the following combination: President Trump’s push for the Federal Reserve to slash interest rates by as much as 3%, his aggressive mix of tax cuts, tariffs, and subsidies aimed at “reshoring” American manufacturing, his championing of increased military spending and expanded domestic outlays. Absent fanciful projections about growth rates, it is overwhelmingly likely that tax revenues would plummet while spending obligations soar, widening the already yawning fiscal gap.

Already the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) estimates annual deficits of 6-7% percent of GDP over the next decade, regardless of which party controls Congress. Trump’s first term saw the national debt rise by $7.8 trillion, driven by the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), COVID spending, and bipartisan spending increases. Biden picked up where Trump left off, and Trump in his second term is promising more of the same, with proposals to extend the TCJA and cut corporate taxes further, potentially adding an additional $5 trillion to $11.2 trillion to the debt by 2035.

Those hoping the Federal Reserve will be able to do anything to help, including President Trump, are bound to be disappointed. In the case of hoping for lower interest rates to finance yet more spending, while the Fed does control short-term rates, longer-term yields are market-driven. Aggressive rate cuts could spark inflation fears, pushing up 10- and 30-year bond yields, as economists Ryan McMaken and Kenneth Rogoff have noted. Long-term rates will likely rise despite the cut. This dynamic is already evident, with markets resisting Fed dovishness by increasing Treasury borrowing costs.

The Fed faces a trap: tightening policy balloons debt service costs, while loosening invites market backlash, undermining the dollar and raising long-term rates. In 2024, net interest payments reached $879.9 billion, surpassing defense and Medicare spending. With the debt-to-GDP ratio at 119.4% in mid-2025, the Fed’s room to maneuver is shrinking.

Then there is the fading “Dollar Discount”: For decades, the dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency has shaved 0.5 to 1% off annual Treasury borrowing costs. However, in an increasingly multipolar world—where China, Europe, and others are developing parallel payment systems and central banks are diversifying their holdings—this “exorbitant privilege” is at risk. The so-called “Mar-a-Lago Accord,” a rumored proposal for selective default on foreign-held debt, has heightened doubts about U.S. creditworthiness. Moody’s downgrade of the U.S. credit rating in 2025 cited unsustainable deficits and growing interest costs, warning that the debt-to-GDP ratio could hit 134% by 2035. Eroding confidence in the dollar will drive borrowing costs higher, compounding the crisis

Keep reading

National debt to rise to 120% of GDP by 2035, budget watchdog warns

The national debt is projected to rise from 100% of the U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at present to 120% of GDP by 2035, according to the latest figures from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), a nonpartisan fiscal policy think tank, based on baseline budget data from the Congressional Budget Office.

The CRFB released an adjusted August 2025 baseline, which found that annual deficits will “remain above 6% of GDP throughout most of the decade,” which is “more than twice the 3% target advocated by some policymakers.”

The budget watchdog group estimated that bringing the federal deficit down gradually to 3% of GDP would require around $3.5 trillion in savings over five years, including interest, or $7.5 trillion over ten years.

“To hold debt at 100% of GDP, approximately $4 trillion is needed over five years, or $9 trillion over the decade,” read their analysis.

The CRFB found that achieving a deficit equal to 4% of GDP would require about $5 trillion in savings while balancing the full federal budget, including interest, would require about $15.5 trillion in total savings.

The watchdog group noted that economic growth alone cannot solely take the place of major fiscal policy changes to get the fisacl situation in the U.S. under control. The CRFB recommended that the U.S government implement “super PAYGO” as well as trust fund reform and other spending reduction initiatives.

“Under Super PAYGO, every dollar of new spending or tax cuts would be offset by at least two dollars of revenue increases or spending reductions, thus ensuring that new tax cut and mandatory spending legislation also includes deficit reduction,” the CRFB said.

CRFB noted that “faster growth can make these fiscal goals easier.” However, the watchdog group said that “thoughtful pro-growth deficit reduction and reform is likely the best way to put the country on a sustainable fiscal path.”

The CBO recently released a separate estimate which found that the Trump administration’s tariffs will cut the U.S. federal deficit by $4 trillion through 2035. 

The analysis found the tariffs would lead to $3.3 trillion in direct tariff revenue and $700 billion in savings from lower interest payments on borrowing. These projections are revised from CBO’s earlier estimates. In June, the CBO had estimated that tariffs would offset budget shortfalls by $3 trillion.

Keep reading

On The Road To A Hyperstate: EU Commission Circumvents Financing Rules

The European Union is funded by contributions from its member states. At least, that’s what the founding treaties say. In practice, however, the EU has long been taking other paths.

At the core of Europe’s financial architecture lies a clear separation of responsibility and liability: Article 125 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union (TFEU), the so-called “No-Bailout Clause.” It states, unequivocally, that neither the Union nor individual member states may assume the debts of other states. The purpose of this provision is to prevent free-rider effects (moral hazard) at the expense of other member states: each state is responsible for its own obligations.

Still, the clause does not exclude political support, as long as it does not mean assuming the existing debts of other states. A notable example of this practice were the bailout programs for Greece during the sovereign debt crisis one and a half decades ago.

Article 310 TFEU further regulates the EU budget: revenues and expenditures must be balanced every year, and the budget may only be financed through own resources such as member contributions, tariffs, or approved revenues. Independent loans by the EU Commission exceeding the approved framework are prohibited.

Together, these rules form the legal backbone of EU financial policy: no automatic liability, no autonomous EU debt, and only fully covered spending.

This design was deliberately chosen to prevent the emergence of a supra-state in Brussels and to defend the national scope of action of member states against an expanding Brussels bureaucracy.

Theory vs. Practice

That’s the theory. In practice, the EU has steadily increased its presence as a borrower in the bond market. It began in 1976 with the first European Community bond to support Italy and Ireland during the oil crisis. In the 1980s and 1990s, further issues followed for France, Greece, and Portugal—always aimed at demonstrating collective solidarity and easing fiscal tensions.

The 2008/2010 financial crisis marked a decisive turning point: with the European Financial Stabilisation Mechanism (EFSM) and, in 2012, the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), the EU began deliberately supporting over-indebted member states via bond issuance. In 2010, the European Central Bank announced it would purchase euro sovereign bonds on the open market to prevent the collapse of the monetary union—always in close coordination with EU institutions.

The COVID years saw a new dimension in 2020: for the first time, the EU issued Social Bonds under the “SURE” fund. At the same time, the “Next Generation EU” program started, providing around €800 billion in crisis aid. Since 2025, the Union has increasingly relied on so-called “sustainable bonds” (Green Bonds) and plans to issue short-term treasury bills for improved liquidity management.

The EU and ECB now operate in tandem, integrating ever-new financing instruments into the capital markets. The signal to the market is clear: we are ready to meet growing demand for euro bonds. And as collateral, not only the European taxpayer but also the ECB’s virtually unlimited liquidity is on standby. What could possibly go wrong?

Keep reading

The Debt And Deficit Problem Isn’t What You Think

In recent months, much debate has been about rising debt and increasing deficit levels in the U.S. For example, here is a recent headline from CNBC…

The article’s author suggests that U.S. federal deficits are ballooning, with spending surging due to the combined impact of tax cuts, expansive stimulus, and entitlement expenditures. Of course, with institutions like Yale, Wharton, and the CBO warning that this trend has pushed interest costs to new heights, now exceeding defense outlays, concerns about domestic solvency are rising. Even prominent figures in the media, from Larry Summers to Ray Dalio, argue that drastic action is urgently needed, otherwise another “financial crisis” is imminent.

The problem with Larry Summers’, Ray Dalio’s, and many others’ warnings of impending financial doom is that they have been warning of that very problem for decades. Such was the point of our previous discussion:

“It doesn’t take much to understand that Ray Dalio, a hedge fund titan, is like every other human being and is prone to error. I will not dismiss Dalio entirely, as his track record of managing money at Bridgewater is nothing to be scoffed at. However, his track record is far less enviable regarding debt crisis predictions. Here is a brief timeline.”

  • March 2015 – Hedge Funder Dalio Thinks the Fed Can Repeat 1937 All Over Again
  • January 2016 – The 75-Year Debt Supercycle Is Coming To An End
  • September 2018 – Ray Dalio Says The Economy Looks Like 1937 And A Downturn Is Coming In About Two Years
  • January 2019 – Ray Dalio Sees Significant Risk Of A US Recession
  • October 2022 – Dalio Warns Of Perfect Storm For The Economy (That was also the stock market low.)
  • September 2023 – Dalio Says The US Is Going To Have A Debt Crisis

But you can even go further back than these when he wrote about some of his biggest mistakes about a decade ago:

Keep reading

Wind & Solar Energy Bankrupting Sunshine State

The State of Florida, long a model of economic growth and conservative fiscal policy, now faces a paradox: while bathed in sunshine and surrounded by natural beauty, it is flirting with energy insolvency. Despite its bounty of natural gas and a history of reliable and affordable electric power, the Sunshine State is increasingly embracing wind and solar energy—two intermittent sources heavily reliant on subsidies, regulatory distortion and taxpayer support.

According to energy analyst Dave Walsh, a speaker at last weekend’s Reclaim Campaign event in Venice, Florida, this green energy shift is not only misguided—it is a direct threat to Florida’s economic sustainability.

Dave Walsh, former president of Mitsubishi-Hitachi Power Americas and a frequent commentator on energy policy, has issued repeated warnings about the consequences of an overreliance on renewable energy. His central thesis is simple: wind and solar power are not financially or technically viable replacements for baseload energy.

Unlike clean coal, natural gas or nuclear—which produce consistent power regardless of time or weather—wind and solar depend on conditions beyond human control. In Florida, that volatility translates into higher costs, increasing grid instability, and growing dependence on backup generation that negates many of the claimed environmental benefits.

Keep reading

Think Uncle Sam Owes $37 Trillion? It’s Far Worse Than That

When asked how far the US government has plunged into the red, many fiscally-conscious Americans will tell you the national debt has reached $37 trillion. As distressing as that official number is, America’s true fiscal situation is even worse — far worse. According to a barely-publicized Treasury report, the actual grand total of Uncle Sam’s obligations is more than $151 trillion.

That huge discrepancy springs from the fact that the federal government doesn’t hold itself to the same accounting standards it imposes on businesses. Rather than using accrual accounting — which recognizes expenses when they’re incurred — our Washington overlords self-servingly use simple cash accounting, only recognizing expenses when they’re paid. As a result, discourse on federal obligations solely focuses on the national debt, comprising Treasury bills, notes and bonds.

Once a year, however, an obscure report delivers a more accurate version of Uncle Sam’s balance sheet. While it receives almost no attention from journalists or public officials, the Treasury Department is required to submit an annual report to Congress detailing the government’s financial condition. Critically, the 1994 law compelling this report mandates that it reflect “unfunded liabilities” — that is, commitments made without any dedicated assets or income streams to ensure they’ll be kept.

Keep reading

Waste Of The Day: Puerto Rico, Guam, Others In Debt

Topline: The five inhabited U.S. territories are collectively $57.8 billion in debt and have issues with their financial statements that “can lead to poor financial decisions and lost access to capital markets,” according to a new report from the Government Accountability Office.

Key facts: The GAO suggested that the territories may struggle to repay their debt even more than the 50 U.S. states. The territories have high energy and import costs, extreme weather, economies that rely on just a few industries, and had a population decrease from 2010 to 2020.

Puerto Rico holds the most debt by far with $52.8 billion as of 2022, which is 47% of its gross domestic product. Guam ($2.5 billion of debt as of 2023), the Virgin Islands ($2.2 billion as of 2021), the Northern Mariana Islands ($121 million as of 2021) and American Samoa ($145 million as of 2023) are also struggling to balance their budgets.

If some of those statistics seem outdated, it’s because they are. The territories are supposed to release financial statements nine months after each fiscal year ends, but American Samoa is the only one meeting that deadline.

While Guam includes 2023 figures, it issued them seven months late.

The delays could hurt the territories’ credit rating, making future borrowing more expensive, according to the GAO. The territories also can’t be audited if they don’t have financial statements, which the GAO says will make it more difficult to identify potential fraud.

American Samoa is also the only territory properly managing its federal funds. The other four territories all had “questioned costs” in the most recent audits of their financial statements, which could mean “there was a violation or possible violation of a statute, regulation, or the terms and conditions of a federal award.” 

Keep reading

France’s Fiscal Reckoning: Is The Eurozone’s Second Giant Next In Line?

France is caught in a debt spiral. Now the president of the French Court of Auditors is warning of the consequences of political inaction.

Pierre Moscovici has served as president of the French Court of Auditors for five years, overseeing regular audits of the nation’s public finances. From 2012 to 2014, he was France’s finance minister and then spent five years as EU Commissioner for Economic and Financial Affairs, Taxation and Customs. The man knows his way around empty coffers.

On Wednesday, Moscovici called on Prime Minister François Bayrou to take urgent steps to consolidate public finances. France’s budgetary situation, he said, has spun out of control, especially in 2023 and 2024. If a turnaround is not achieved soon, the capital markets will force one. “We can still act voluntarily,” he warned the government, “but tomorrow, the markets may impose austerity.”

For Now, Calm in the Bond Markets

Once the dominoes start falling, it goes fast. Investors dump French government bonds en masse. Yields spike, prices plummet, and refinancing the country’s massive debt becomes even more costly. Already, interest payments consume 10.6% of France’s state budget—roughly the same as education spending. As debt levels rise, fiscal maneuvering space shrinks.

With sovereign debt at 114% of GDP, the trap could snap shut unexpectedly. For now, European officials still point fingers at the U.S., whose debt ratios are similar. But no one can say how long that deflection tactic will work. Credit risk materializes suddenly—usually without warning.

Keep reading

Americans Carry Median Non-Mortgage Debt of Nearly $19,000: Report

Americans in 100 of the largest metropolitan areas now have a median non-mortgage debt of $18,762 across four generations—baby boomers, Gen X, millennials, and Gen Z—which is down by 23.9 percent compared with $24,668 in 2024, financial services company LendingTree said in a June 24 report.

Non-mortgage debt includes personal loans, auto loans, credit card debt, student loans, and other debt.

Gen Xers, aged 45 to 60 years, have the highest median debt, at $26,207.

This was followed by millennials (aged 29 to 44 years), with a debt of $24,810; Gen Zers (aged 18 to 28), with $12,715; and finally baby boomers (aged 61 to 79), with $10,272.

The median debt fell in all four generations, with baby boomers seeing the largest decline at 45.3 percent. For the remaining three generations, debt fell by about 18 percent to 23 percent.

Matt Schulz, chief consumer finance analyst at LendingTree, called the decline in debt across generations a significant decrease.

Keep reading

Belated Republican Objections to the One Big Beautiful Bill Glide Over Its Blatant Fiscal Irresponsibility

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which the House of Representatives narrowly approved early in the morning on Thursday, May 22, lives up to its name in at least one respect: It is big, weighing in at 1,037 pages and nearly 200,000 words. Since the bill’s final text was not available until 10:40 p.m. on Wednesday, about eight hours before it passed by a single-vote margin shortly before 7 a.m. the next day, it would not be surprising if bleary-eyed legislators overlooked some of its nuances in their hurry to deliver the package that President Donald Trump demanded. As Reason‘s Liz Wolfe notes, at least two Republicans—Reps. Mike Flood (R–Neb.) and Marjorie Taylor Greene (R–Ga.)—have publicly admitted as much, saying they missed objectionable parts of the bill when they voted for it.

If Flood and Greene had voted no, it would have been enough to change the outcome. Furthermore, it seems safe to assume that at least some of their colleagues had similar regrets but are too embarrassed to admit that they failed to exercise the minimum diligence that should be expected from members of Congress. But the complaints from Flood and Greene are notable for another reason: They have nothing to do with the bill’s blatant fiscal irresponsibility, the main flaw highlighted by critics such as Rep. Thomas Massie (R–Ky.), Sen. Rand Paul (R–Ky.), and Elon Musk, who on Tuesday condemned “this massive, outrageous, pork-filled Congressional spending bill” as “a disgusting abomination.”

That much was clear prior to the House vote. As Reason‘s Eric Boehm noted the day before Flood and Greene gave their crucial assent to the bill, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projected that it would add $2.3 trillion to the national debt over 10 years—an estimate that the CBO upped to $2.4 trillion this week. Boehm added that “other assessments of the bill” by the Yale Budget Lab (originally published on May 16) and the Penn Wharton Budget Project (published three days later) estimated that it would add “more than $3 trillion” to the debt.

Those are low-ball estimates, based on the unrealistic assumption that Congress will allow Trump-favored tax cuts to lapse toward the end of that period. If “temporary provisions in the bill are made permanent,” Boehm reported, the Yale Budget Lab estimated that it would trigger $5 trillion in new borrowing.

The national debt currently exceeds $35 trillion, including about $29 trillion in debt held by the public, which is about the size of the entire U.S. economy. In January, the CBO projected that publicly held debt would hit 119 percent of GDP by 2035. Two months later, Trump promised to do something about that. “In the near future,” he told Congress, “I want to do what has not been done in 24 years—balance the federal budget. We’re gonna balance it.” But the glaring gap between that promise and the One Big Beautiful Bill Act did not faze Flood or Greene, whose concerns are much narrower.

Keep reading