As the U.S. Supreme Court prepares to decide whether states can ban AR-15s and other commonly owned semiautomatic rifles, a new analysis of FBI crime data is challenging one of the gun-control lobby’s central arguments. Despite decades of warnings about the supposed dangers of these firearms, rifles account for a smaller share of firearm murders today than they did when the federal government’s so-called “assault weapons” ban was in effect.
According to a November 4 analysis published by the Crime Prevention Research Center (CPRC), rifles accounted for an average of 4.9% of firearm murders during the federal ban from 1995 through 2004. After the ban expired, that figure fell to just 3.6%, even as the estimated number of AR-15s and AK-47s in civilian circulation increased dramatically.
The findings arrive ahead of December 2, 2026, when the Supreme Court will hear oral arguments in Viramontes v. Cook County and Grant v. Higgins, two consolidated cases challenging bans on commonly owned semiautomatic rifles. The cases could determine whether politicians can continue prohibiting America’s most popular rifle platform despite its widespread lawful ownership and the constitutional protections recognized in District of Columbia v. Heller.
