For the first time, I show the directly standardized survival curves for each 5 year age group in the Czech Republic using the publicly released record-level data.
This data consistently shows the people who got the Moderna vaccine were much more likely to die than those of the same age who got the Pfizer shot. The relative risk (RR) was >1.5 for those under age 60 which is a huge difference.
The comorbidity distribution for both groups of a given age range was very similar (SMD=.05)
This isn’t because Pfizer is more protective of a COVID death because the differences were not specific to COVID periods (and were too large to be explained by effectiveness differences).
There are two remaining explanations:
- The Moderna vaccine was more deadly
- There was a systematic distribution of vaccines in Czech Republic that no matter what age you were, if you were more likely to die, you were given the Moderna shots.
Explanation is 2 is much less likely because there was no systematic bias in vaccine distribution by brand, and even if there were, the fact that the DCCI distributions were similar and that the younger you were, the more pronounced the effect, would be unusual since 45 year old people are not concentrated in elderly homes and hospital beds.
So the most likely explanation is Moderna was more deadly.
Hellbound and Down 