In the wake of U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian military infrastructure, the financial press has reflexively focused on oil. Tanker traffic, Brent crude, and the risk of triple-digit prices dominate the discussion.
But oil is not the only commodity posing a serious long-term risk.
Another deep vulnerability runs through natural gas—and from there into nitrogen fertilizer. If commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz were significantly restricted, the impact would extend beyond fuel markets. It would reach directly into global food production.
That’s because the Gulf region is not just a major energy exporter. It is one of the world’s most important suppliers of nitrogen fertilizer—the foundation of modern agricultural yields.
The Energy Behind the Food System
Nitrogen fertilizer begins with natural gas. Through the Haber-Bosch process, methane is converted into ammonia, which is then upgraded into urea and other nitrogen products. In practical terms, nitrogen fertilizer is natural gas transformed into plant food.
Roughly half of global food production depends on synthetic nitrogen. Without it, crop yields would decline sharply.
Globally, about 180 million metric tons of nitrogen fertilizers are consumed each year (measured in nutrient terms). Of that, roughly 55 to 60 million metric tons of urea move through international seaborne trade annually. The Middle East accounts for approximately 40% to 50% of that traded volume.
And nearly all of those exports must transit the Strait of Hormuz.
Hellbound and Down 