If you cannot make a model to predict the outcome of the next draw from a lottery ball machine, you are unable to make a model to predict the future of the climate, suggests former computer modeller Greg Chapman, in a recent essay in Quadrant. Chapman holds a PhD in physics and notes that the climate system is chaotic, which means “any model will be a poor predictor of the future”. A lottery ball machine, he observes, “is a comparatively much simpler and smaller interacting system”.
Most climate models run hot, a polite term for endless failed predictions of runaway global warming. If this was a “real scientific process’” argues Chapman, the hottest two thirds of the models would be rejected by the International Panel for Climate Change (IPCC). If that happened, he continues, there would be outrage amongst the climate scientists community, especially from the rejected teams, “due to their subsequent loss of funding”. More importantly, he added, “the so-called 97% consensus would instantly evaporate”. Once the hottest models were rejected, the temperature rise to 2100 would be 1.5°C since pre-industrial times, mostly due to natural warming. “There would be no panic, and the gravy train would end,” he said
As COP27 enters its second week, the Roger Hallam-grade hysteria – the intelligence-insulting ‘highway to hell’ narrative – continues to be ramped up. Invariably behind all of these claims is a climate model or a corrupt, adjusted surface temperature database. In a recent essay also published in Quadrant, the geologist Professor Ian Plimer notes that COP27 is “the biggest public policy disaster in a lifetime”. In a blistering attack on climate extremism, he writes:
We are reaping the rewards of 50 years of dumbing down education, politicised poor science, a green public service, tampering with the primary temperature data record and the dismissal of common sense as extreme right-wing politics. There has been a deliberate attempt to frighten poorly-educated young people about a hypothetical climate emergency by the mainstream media, uncritically acting as stenographers for green activists.
In his detailed essay, Chapman explains that all the forecasts of global warming arise from the “black box” of climate models. If the amount of warming was calculated from the “simple, well known relationship between CO2 and solar energy spectrum absorption”, it would only be 0.5°C if the gas doubled in the atmosphere. This is due to the logarithmic nature of the relationship.