Tag: taiwan

U.S. Arms Sales to Taiwan Risk Accelerating China’s Timeline for Unification

President Donald Trump’s administration has announced a massive package of arms sales to Taiwan valued at more than $11 billion that cover eight items, including 420 Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) and 82 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS). If completed, it would be one of Washington’s biggest-ever military sales to Taiwan.

The long-standing policy of U.S. arms sales to Taiwan, intended to maintain the status quo in the Taiwan Strait, is having a dangerously counterproductive effect. 11 days after the US announced $11.1 billion in arms sales to Taiwan, China holds the “Justice Mission 2025” exercise, demonstrating its dual focus on deterring Taiwan independence and countering external interference. The drills showcased A2/AD capabilities with a reach potentially extending to Okinawa and Guam.

Analysts increasingly suggest that these arms transfers are not deterring conflict but may instead be compelling China to consider more aggressive options for unification. This dynamic creates a perilous cycle: each new weapons package prompts greater Chinese military pressure, which in turn is used to justify further arms sales. The situation risks spiraling toward a direct military confrontation that neither Washington nor Beijing may be able to control.

1. Arms Sales as a Catalyst for Provocation and Miscalculation

The steady flow of advanced U.S. weaponry to Taiwan risks emboldening Taipei’s leadership, fostering a false sense of security that could lead to reckless provocations against China. Latest arms sale shows Washington has continued to assist Taipei in “rapidly building robust deterrence capabilities”, Taiwan’s defense ministry said in a statement. Weapons transfers are perceived in Taipei as tangible proof of Washington’s security commitment, a perception that may encourage riskier behavior.

This concern is echoed by regional security experts. Lyle Goldstein, director of the Asia Program at Defense Priorities, has warned the U.S. to be wary of a “reckless leader” in Taipei who might miscalculate. William Lai has lurched toward formal independence with a succession of speeches making the case for Taiwanese nationhood.

2. The Erosion of U.S. Credibility and China’s Countermeasures

Washington has long relied on a policy called “strategic ambiguity” to maintain the status quo in the Taiwan Strait. However, this policy is now facing an increasingly severe “credibility” crisis. The paradox lies in the fact that actions aimed at deterring both sides of the Strait are, in turn, eroding the foundation of its own “One China” policy.

This perceived “duplicity” has triggered a determined and multifaceted response from Beijing. China has introduced economic, diplomatic, and military countermeasures. If the U.S. continues to escalate ties with Taiwan through expanded arms sales or official exchanges – for instance, by supporting the renewal of formal Honduras-Taiwan relations – China may take additional steps, potentially including a full ban on rare earth exports. Recent Chinese sanctions against U.S. defense contractors highlight the resolve behind this stance.

3. From Military Deterrence to the Specter of Actual Combat

In response to what it views as escalating collusion between the U.S. and Taiwan, China is not merely stepping up military deterrence – it is actively preparing for the possibility of turning it into actual combat. The scale and complexity of People’s Liberation Army (PLA) exercises around Taiwan have been systematically upgraded from simple shows of force to integrated rehearsals for invasion scenarios.

The Pentagon’s 2025 report to Congress provides a sobering assessment of Beijing’s evolving calculus. It shows that China expects to be able to fight and win a war on Taiwan by the end of 2027. It outlines a spectrum of military options China is refining, from coercive blockades and precision strikes to the most decisive and risky option: a full-scale joint island landing campaign (JILC), or amphibious invasion. This preparation makes the risk of accidental escalation or miscalculated fire during routine exercises or standoffs a constant danger.

“A conflict would be disastrous for all sides. The US would have to project power several thousand miles away, no mean feat, especially since allied support is not guaranteed, ” Former Reagan White House Official and Expert Doug Bandow writes in his new analysis.

Keep reading

Pentagon Awards $328.5 Million Lockheed Martin Contract to Boost Taiwan’s Air Force

The Pentagon on Dec. 31 announced that Lockheed Martin had been awarded a contract to sell military equipment to Taiwan, as the island remains on high alert amid repeated military drills by Beijing.

In a news release, the Pentagon said it was issuing the $328.5 million ceiling contract to “meet the urgent operational need of the Taiwan Air Force.”

“This contract provides for the procurement and delivery of fifty-five Infrared Search and Track Legion Enhanced Sensor pods, processors, pod containers, and processor containers,” the Pentagon stated.

Foreign military sales worth $157.3 million are obligated at the time of the award. The work, which will be conducted in Orlando, Florida, is expected to be completed by June 30, 2031, the Pentagon stated.

The United States transitioned from officially recognizing Taiwan to maintaining formal diplomatic ties with China after adopting the U.S.-P.R.C. Joint Communique in 1979, essentially recognizing the People’s Republic of China—the Chinese communist regime—as the “sole legal government of China,” according to the State Department.

Even though the United States has upheld unofficial ties with Taiwan since 1979, the Taiwan Relations Act of that same year requires the Pentagon to supply Taiwan with “defensive capability” as a means of allowing the island to defend itself.

Keep reading

U.S. Approves Largest-Ever Military Package for Taiwan — $11 Billion in Precision Weapons

The Trump administration has approved one of its largest-ever arms packages for Taiwan, with total sales valued at up to $11 billion.

The move is intended to strengthen Taiwan’s ability to defend itself against China, but it is almost certain to provoke anger in Beijing.

The package covers a wide range of weapons and systems, including missiles, drones, artillery, and advanced battlefield software.

The most significant item is the HIMARS rocket system, which has played a major role in Ukraine’s defense against Russia.

Taiwan will also receive self-propelled howitzers and a new digital command network that allows military units to share real-time information during operations.

Keep reading

Taiwan Announces $40 Billion Defense Spending Boost to Protect from China

Taiwanese President William Lai ChinCap Video – No Adsg-te on Wednesday announced a $40 billion boost to defense spending to counter “intensifying” threats from China, which he said is “speeding up military preparations to take Taiwan by force.”

“Taiwan must not become a weak point in regional security. Among all the possible scenarios for China’s annexation of Taiwan, the biggest threat is not force – it is our own surrender,” Lai declared.

Lai said his government was prepared to counter any efforts at “repression” by China, and pledged to achieve a “high level of combat preparedness” within two years, including major upgrades to missile, drone, and artificial intelligence capabilities.

“China’s threats to Taiwan and the Indo-Pacific region are escalating. Recently, various types of military intrusions, maritime gray zones and disinformation campaigns have been occurring in Japan, the Philippines and around the Taiwan Strait,” he warned, “causing deep unease and distress to all parties in the region.” 

“Taiwan, as the most important and most critical part of the first island chain, must demonstrate our determination and take on a greater responsibility in self-defense,” he said.

Lai’s language was bound to raise China’s blood pressure, because “first island chain” means the string of islands and reefs from Taiwan to Japan that China is attempting to seize through force and intimidation, even though Beijing’s claims have been rejected by international tribunals.

China is currently embroiled in a highly public feud with Japan because Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae told her parliament that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be a “survival-threatening situation” – in other words, a situation that would justify the use of military force under Japan’s pacifist constitution.

Japanese leaders have never before used those exact words to describe their alliance with Taiwan. China’s seemingly hysterical reaction was triggered in part because Beijing fears the increasingly strong alliance between other Pacific powers aligned with the United States. Lai’s announcement on Wednesday reinforced the importance of that alliance, and supported Takaichi’s contention that a Chinese attack on Taiwan would be a threat to every nation in the island chain.

“We hope China can understand that each country in the Indo-Pacific region has a responsibility to its peace and stability, and that we especially hope China, as a major power in the region, would also demonstrate the responsibilities of a major power,” Lai said, directly referencing the dispute between Beijing and Tokyo.

“Instead, it has continued to raise threats and attacks toward neighboring countries. This is not the way a responsible major power acts,” he lamented.

The extra spending announced by President Lai, which would be spread out over eight years, brings Taiwan’s defense budget up to 3.3 percent of GDP. Lai has said he plans to bring spending up to five percent of GDP, while President Donald Trump has asked the imperiled island nation to shoot for ten percent.

Lai wrote an op-ed for the Washington Post on Tuesday in which he expressed gratitude to President Trump for pursuing “peace through strength,” and said Taiwan is fully on board with that principle, as demonstrated by his $40 billion supplemental defense spending plan.

“This landmark package will not only fund significant new arms acquisitions from the United States, but also vastly enhance Taiwan’s asymmetrical capabilities,” he wrote. “In doing so, we aim to bolster deterrence by inserting greater costs and uncertainties into Beijing’s decision-making on the use of force.”

“My message here is clear: Taiwan’s dedication to peace and stability is unwavering. No country will be more determined in safeguarding Taiwan’s future than our own,” he declared.

Keep reading

US approves new $330m arms deal for Taiwan

Washington has cleared a $330-million package of aircraft parts and maintenance support for Taiwan on 13 November, marking the first US arms sale since President Donald Trump returned to office. 

Taiwan’s Foreign Ministry welcomed the approval and thanked Washington for continuing what it described as a policy of regularized arms sales.

The State Department decision includes equipment, spare parts, and repair services for Taiwan’s fleet of US-made F-16 and C-130 aircraft, as well as components for its domestically produced Indigenous Defense Fighter (IDF). 

The Pentagon said the proposed sale “will improve the recipient’s capability to meet current and future threats by maintaining the operational readiness of the recipient’s fleet of F-16, C-130,” and other aircraft.

Taiwan’s Defense Ministry said the package will help maintain fighter readiness, bolster air defenses, and strengthen the island’s ability to respond to China’s “gray-zone” incursions. 

President Lai Ching-te’s government has vowed to ramp up defense spending amid China’s continued military pressure around the island. 

Taiwan’s presidential office called the deepening security partnership with Washington “an important cornerstone of peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region.”

Beijing expressed anger at the sale, repeating its claim that Taiwan is part of its territory. 

China’s Foreign Ministry said “the Taiwan question is the core of China’s core interests and the first red line that must not be crossed in China–US relations,” and warned that China will do what is necessary to defend its “sovereignty, territorial integrity and security.”

Taiwan requested the package earlier this year, seeking “non-standard components, spare and repair parts, consumables and accessories, and repair and return support for F-16, C-130, and Indigenous Defense Fighter (IDF) aircraft,” according to the Defense Security Cooperation Agency.

Trump has said Chinese President Xi Jinping told him he would not invade Taiwan while Trump is in office, a remark made after the two leaders met in South Korea as trade discussions continued. 

Reuters reported there had been “fear in Taipei that there could have been some sort of ‘selling out’ of Taiwan’s interests,” which did not materialize as Washington proceeded with the sale.

Keep reading

Will the Taiwan Issue Stay Quiet During Trump’s Term?

President Trump professed to be extremely pleased with the results of his recent summit meeting with Xi Jinping in South Korea.  Indeed, with his typical hyperbole, he rated it “a 12 out of 10.” Trump expressed special satisfaction with the conclusion of new trade agreements that significantly eased bilateral economic tensions between the United States and the People’s Republic of China (PRC).  In what amounted to a casual comment, he also stated that he had received a pledge from Xi that the PRC would not take any military action to change Taiwan’s political status during the remainder of Trump’s term.  Interestingly, neither the U.S. nor PRC documents summarizing the summit indicated that the Taiwan issue was discussed at all – a very surprising omission given the usual importance of the topic.

More-neutral observers were less overwhelmed by the summit’s results.  Critics contended that the economic agreements amounted to little more than a temporary cease fire in the tariff wars that had raged between the two countries since Trump took office in January 2025.  The new steps largely restored the status quo ante, with tariff rates mostly returning to the levels that existed before all the recent posturing and blustering by Washington and Beijing.

Trump’s comments about his alleged pledge from Xi are more interesting and potentially much more significant.  If such a substantive “understanding” now exists between Beijing and Washington that the PRC will not take any military actions to change Taiwan’s political status, it would ease tensions in an especially volatile and dangerous global geostrategic hotspot.  There are, however, some reasons to doubt Trump’s rosy interpretation.  For one thing, the alleged pledge would be a sharp change in Beijing’s rhetoric and conduct for the past several years.

The PRC sought to strangle Taiwan in the global diplomatic arena throughout the 8-year tenure of former Taiwanese president Tsai Ing-wen.  In response to vigorous lobbying campaigns by Beijing that combined roughly equal amounts of bribery and threats, 10 of the 22 small nations that still maintained diplomatic relations with Taipei when Tsai took office in 2016 switched ties to Beijing.  The attempted intimidation, coercion, and isolation of Taiwan occurred not only on the diplomatic front, however.  Beijing also sharply increased the number and scope of its military exercises in the vicinity of Taiwan.

Both trends have grown more pronounced under Tsai’s successor, Lai Ching-te (William Lai) since he took office in May 2024.  The PRC’s menacing military maneuvers are especially noticeable.   Beijing dislikes Lai even more intensely than it did Tsai.  She was a member of the “light green” (more restrained and pragmatic) faction of the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP).  Lai unsubtly favors the goal of formal independence that the “deep green” faction pursues.  His confrontational course seems aimed at securing eventual international recognition of Taiwan’s (currently de facto) independence and a firm commitment from the United States and its allies to defend Taiwan from PRC coercion.

Lai also is waging a bitter internal political war with the more moderate Kuomintang Party, which favors a decidedly softer, less confrontational policy for dealing with Beijing.  The DPP and its rival have both adopted highly questionable tactics to undermine the other.  It is an increasingly tense political environment with Lai holding the presidency but a KMT-led coalition controlling the legislative branch. In July, 2025, voters rejected an effort by Lai to purge targeted opposition legislators through an unprecedented recall vote.

Keep reading

Ukraine to help Taiwan build combat drones

A Ukrainian tech hub has signed a deal with a Taiwanese defense company to design and build combat drones, according to an announcement on Wednesday. Poland will also provide expertise.

The move was announced at the International Defense Industry Exhibition (MSPO) in Kielce, Poland, and comes amid heightened tensions between Washington and Beijing in the South China Sea.

According to Focus Taiwan, Ukraine will contribute research and development, Poland will provide expertise, and Taichung-based firm Thunder Tiger will supply technology and components. Earlier this year, Thunder Tiger unveiled an FPV drone capable of carrying an 81mm mortar as well as a new naval kamikaze

Keep reading

UK Warns Of War With China Over Taiwan

The United Kingdom is warning that it could start a war with China over Taiwan. British Defense Secretary John Healey has said that force is possible, but he emphasized that London continues to prefer a diplomatic resolution to the conflict.

The UK seems to be anything but diplomatic and peaceful lately, though.

Healey said Britain would “secure peace through strength” if necessary, while speaking with The Telegraph in Australia.  This speech marks one of the clearest signals yet from a senior UK official regarding the possibility of a direct military confrontation with China.

”If we have to fight, as we have done in the past, Australia and the UK are nations that will fight together. We exercise together and by exercising together and being more ready to fight, we deter better together,” Healey said when asked what London would do in case of an escalation around Taiwan.

The secretary then said he was speaking in “general terms.” According to Healey, London’s approach to Taiwan has not changed.

Keep reading

Bomb Threats Against Shen Yun Dance and Music Shows Traced to CCP’s Huawei-Linked Institute

Taiwan’s Criminal Police Bureau has reportedly traced a recent wave of mass violence threats targeting Shen Yun Performing Arts shows to an institute affiliated with Chinese tech giant Huawei, according to a new report by Liberty Times.

The investigation comes in response to a surge of emailed threats over the past week, which targeted Shen Yun performances and several Taiwanese government institutions. The messages included bomb and shooting threats, warning of violence unless the performances were canceled. On a single day alone, authorities documented 13 such threats sent to public offices, train stations, and cultural venues across cities, including Taipei, Taichung, Tainan, and Keelung.

After launching a cross-agency task force, Taiwanese police say they traced the origin of the emails to the Huawei Xi’an Institute in Shaanxi Province, China. Though the threats appeared to have been routed through multiple international VPNs, digital forensics reportedly led investigators to a network connected to the Huawei facility. Officials noted that personnel tied to the institute may have been involved and did not rule out links to China’s notorious online influence operations, often dubbed the “Internet Army.”

The threatening emails contained politically charged language, including usernames referencing “8964,” an apparent nod to the 1989 Tiananmen Square crackdown. Investigators believe this suggests possible state-sponsored psychological operations targeting Taiwan’s social and cultural stability.

Shen Yun, a U.S.-based performing arts company affiliated with the Falun Gong spiritual movement, has long drawn the ire of Beijing due to its strong anti-Communist message and depictions of religious persecution in China. The troupe’s performances, which blend classical Chinese dance with original orchestral music, are frequently disrupted by Chinese interference campaigns abroad.

In response to the findings, Shen Yun spokesperson Leeshai Lemish, who has served as the company’s master of ceremonies since 2006, urged U.S. authorities to take the threats seriously.

Keep reading

Taiwan Offers Zero Tariffs and More Investment in U.S.

Taiwanese President William Lai Ching-te on Sunday proposed zero tariffs, lower trade barriers, and more investment in the United States instead of retaliating against President Donald Trump’s tariff increases.

President Trump’s tariff announcement on Wednesday included 32 percent on all Taiwanese exports except semiconductors, which are Taiwan’s most celebrated and economically significant product.

Trump had threatened in March to include Taiwanese semiconductors on his tariff list, because he said Taiwan “stole” the industry from America with unfair trade practices.

“They stole it from us. They took it from us, and I don’t blame them. I give them credit. I blame the people that were sitting in this seat because they allowed it to happen,” Trump said in March.

The president’s position on Taiwanese semiconductors softened a little after the island’s biggest chipmaker, TSMC, pledged to spend $100 billion on five new semiconductor factories in Arizona over the next four years.

Officials in Taipei were stunned when Trump slapped 32-percent tariffs on everything except semiconductors last week. Taiwanese cabinet spokeswoman Michelle Lee called the tariffs “deeply unreasonable” and “highly regrettable.”

Keep reading