Tag: perpetual war

Visualizing Washington’s Key Role In Military Aid To Ukraine

As doubts over future American support for Ukraine and the Trump administration’s commitment to NATO loom large, European leaders have rallied to assure Ukraine of its unwavering support and to become more independent of their transatlantic partner. 

On Thursday, leaders gathered for a special European Council meeting, where the future of Europe’s security and the bloc’s role in Ukraine’s defense against Russian aggression was discussed.

“This is a watershed moment for Europe. And it is also a watershed moment for Ukraine, as part of our European family,” Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, said in a statement. 

“Europe faces a clear and present danger. And therefore, Europe has to be able to protect itself, to defend itself, as we have to put Ukraine in a position to protect itself, and to push for a lasting and just peace.”

As Statista’s Felix Richter reports, to be able to negotiate a “peace through strength”, as von der Leyen put it, the EU must quickly ramp up its military aid to Ukraine after U.S. President Donald Trump paused U.S. military support earlier this week. 

According to the IfW Kiel’s Ukraine Support Tracker, the EU’s 27 member states have allocated a total of $53.8 billion in military aid to Ukraine between January 24, 2022 and December 31, 2024. 

That’s equivalent to 39 percent of total military aid supplied to Ukraine during that time and roughly $15 billion short of what the U.S. supplied. 

Adding contributions from European non-EU members Norway and the UK, Europe’s military aid to Ukraine was roughly on par with U.S. support so far, meaning it would have to double its investment if the U.S. were to withdraw its support permanently.

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Was October 7 Avoidable?

After the Hamas-led offensive of October 7, 2023, it was portrayed as “Israel’s 9/11,” which came out of the blue. Yet, this assumption is not supported by verified facts, including ignored intelligence, abandoned hostages and neglected Israeli communities around Gaza.

A day after October 7, Eurasia Group’s Ian Bremmer said that the “massive attacks by Hamas leadership into Israel… is no less than Israel’s 9/11.” By contrast, in the same interview for CNBC, I said that October 7 did not come out of the blue. “The Israeli-Hamas War is a logical result of 50 years of failed military policies.” Our views were diametrically opposed.

I had warned of the ticking time bomb in Gaza already in 2018, half a decade before. A day or two before October 7, I wrote an essay on the coming explosion in Gaza. It was not prophetic insight. October 7, 2023, was the 50-year anniversary of the Yom Kippur War and I fully expected a high-profile reaction.

After the brutal Hamas-led assault, Israeli authorities vehemently condemned what they called “our September 11” and a “surprise attack.” But the hard questions were conveniently ignored – and still are.

A week ago, the Israeli Defense Forces’ landmark investigations into the October 7 attack disclosed severe, deep-rooted intelligence miscalculations and fundamental misconceptions on the nature of Hamas and its intentions by both the Israeli government and military. Probing the same attack, Shin Bet, Israel’s internal security service, recently pointed fingers at Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.  Typically, the prime mistakes featured the political conception of Hamas as an Israeli asset, the intelligence misjudgment that it couldn’t launch a large-scale attack, and weak defensive deployment.

The intriguing part of the story is that these facts were pretty well known already in the first days after October 7, 2023 – that is, more than a year ago – as I argue in The Fall of Israel. And there is more to the story.

Why was the abundant intelligence on the impending Hamas attack deliberately ignored? Why were the Israeli hostages effectively abandoned? Why were the strategic border communities neglected? With all its might, backed up with U.S. military aid and financing, how did Israel fail to see the writing on the wall? 

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Pausing Aid to Ukraine: The World Should Have Seen It Coming

At the end of June, 2024, the world got its first glimpse at what Donald Trump’s plan to end the war in Ukraine in one day might look like. Retired Lieutenant General Keith Kellogg and former CIA analyst Fred Fleitz submitted a plan to then candidate Trump. In an interview, Kellogg revealed that U.S. leverage would have two fronts. The first is you tell Putin, “He’s got to come to the table and if you don’t come to the table, then we’ll give Ukrainians everything they need to kill you in the field.” And the second is, “We tell the Ukrainians, ‘You’ve got to come to the table, and if you don’t come to the table, support from the United States will dry up.’”

Keith Kellogg now serves as Trump’s special presidential envoy for Ukraine and Russia.

The threat could not have been clearer: continued aid was conditional on Ukraine’s willingness to negotiate an end to the war, and if they were not, then U.S. aid would stop. Knowing that clear conditional, Ukraine’s President, Volodymyr Zelensky, sealed his fate with two sentences.

In the televised February 28 meeting at the White House, U.S. Vice-President J.D. Vance repeated the Trump policy that “the path to peace” is not the path of war, but the path of “engaging in diplomacy.” Zelensky publicly attempted to refute him with the historically revisionist objection that negotiations with Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, is impossible because Putin cannot be trusted not to break the agreements he signs in negotiations.  “What kind of diplomacy, JD, you are speaking about?” Zelensky objected. “What do you mean?”

Zelensky rejected negotiations as the path to peace. But willingness to travel that path was the condition for continued aid. “If you don’t come to the table,” the plan said, “support from the United States will dry up.’”

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US B-52 Bomber Flies With Israeli Jets Over Eastern Mediterranean

A US B-52 Stratrofortress bomber flew over the eastern Mediterranean Sea on March 4, marking the third US flyover of the Middle East in the past month, shows of force that are meant as threats toward Iran and its allies in the region.

“Israeli F-35i and F-15i aircraft flew alongside an American US B-52 strategic bomber,” the Israeli military said in a statement on Thursday. “During the flight, the forces practiced operational coordination between the two militaries to enhance their ability to address various regional threats.”

US Central Command (CENTCOM) confirmed that it conducted a “Bomber Task Force Mission in the Middle East.” It said the B-52, which is capable of carrying nuclear weapons, took off from a base in the UK and flew across Europe on its way to the Middle East.

According to Air & Space Forces Magazine, the US bomber “orbited off the coast of Israel,” meaning it likely flew near the besieged Gaza Strip.

The flight came just two weeks after the US sent two B-52 bombers over the Middle East on February 20. CENTCOM said the two bombers “flew across Europe and six partner countries in CENTCOM’s area of responsibility during their mission, which included aerial refueling and training missions at ranges.”

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Israel Cuts Electricity to Gaza, Ramping Up Collective Punishment

Israel on Sunday said it was cutting off electricity to the Gaza Strip as it ramps up the collective punishment of the civilian population to pressure Hamas to release Israeli hostages, violating the ceasefire deal reached in January.

Israeli Energy Minister Eli Cohen made the announcement, saying he instructed the Israel Electric Corporation to immediately stop selling electricity to power stations in Gaza.

“We will employ all the tools available to us so that all the hostages will return, and we will ensure that Hamas won’t be in Gaza on the ‘day after,’” Cohen said. The move is expected to impact Gaza’s water supply since electricity powers desalination plants that produce drinking water.

Since March 2, Israel has blocked the entry of aid, medicine, fuel, and all other goods into Gaza. The UN’s World Food Program has warned that it’s running out of food supplies in Gaza, and Palestinians report a sharp rise in prices since Israel imposed the total siege.

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What is Happening in Syria is Just What Obama and Biden Wanted

The news out of Syria is nothing short of horrific, and it provides a fresh illustration of what a catastrophic failure the Obama strategy in the Middle East has been. 

Greek City Times reported that “hundreds of Christians, including Greek Orthodox, and Alawites have been killed after clashes broke out on Thursday in the Latakia and Tartous regions on Syria’s Mediterranean coast, according to a human rights monitoring group.” 

That death toll may be a tragic underestimation. Greek City Times added that “the Syrian Network for Human Rights (SNHR) said on Friday that more than 225 people have been killed since Thursday. However, this is believed to be a gross underreporting, with activists on the ground, such as Coast Youth Forum, believing the death toll could be as high as 1,800, mostly Alawites, but also Christians.”

The perpetrators are members of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the Islamic jihad group that toppled the Assad regime and took control of Syria several months ago. But the groundwork for what is happening in Syria now was laid years ago, and is the direct result of policies that Barack Obama and Old Joe Biden (you know, the guy known as “Obama’s Third Term”) pursued. According to a revealing Apr. 2022 piece in RealClearInvestigations, Obama apparatchiks who had returned to positions in the Biden regime “coordinated with the jihadist franchise in an effort to topple the Syrian regime – while claiming they backed only the ‘moderate opposition.’” 

The article noted that “in waging a multi-billion dollar covert war in support of the insurgency against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, top Obama officials who now serve under Biden made it American policy to enable and arm terrorist groups that attracted jihadi fighters from across the globe. This regime change campaign, undertaken one decade after Al Qaeda attacked the U.S. on 9/11, helped a sworn U.S. enemy establish the Idlib safe haven that it still controls today.” In the course of this astoundingly foolish campaign, Old Joe’s future National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, who was then Director of Policy Planning, wrote to his boss, then-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, “AQ [Al Qaeda] is on our side in Syria.” 

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Report Suggests U.S. Will Cease Future Military Exercises in Europe

According to reports, the U.S. has conveyed to its allies that it does not plan to participate in future military exercises in Europe.

Exercises scheduled through 2025 are not impacted by the freeze.

Swedish outlet Expressen reports, “If the ruling remains in force, it means that Sweden and the rest of the NATO member states will have to plan exercises without the participation of the United States or small American units in the air force.”

Per Expressen: (via Google Translate)

The information is scarce, but the announcement concerns exercises where the US is an important piece of the puzzle for the entirety of the exercise activities in Europe and, by extension, the defense of the European continent.

According to Expressen’s sources, the American planning freeze does not apply to exercises that have been decided to be carried out in 2025.

It concerns exercises that are currently on the “drawing board”, i.e. a little further ahead, says one of Expressen’s sources.

If the announcement stands, it means that Sweden and other NATO countries are forced to plan exercises without American participation or with only small American units in the exercises.

The news, if accurate, underscores President Trump’s position regarding NATO countries and his criticism of their failure to meet the current goal of spending two percent of GDP on defense.

President Trump has asserted that the U.S. accounts for over 70% of NATO’s funding.

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A Disastrous British-Led Operation in Ukraine: ‘The Krynky Landing’

UK military operation planners became central to an investigation after a failed mission that involved Ukrainian troops attempting to establish a foothold on the left bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast. This operation dubbed “Krynky Landing” initiated in October 2023, aimed to seize and maintain control over a section of territory held by the Russians, before pushing toward Crimea, and reaching all the way to the Perekop isthmus. It ended in tragedy in July of 2024.

As a result, an estimated 788 Ukrainian soldiers who defended Krynky in Kherson Oblast are now reported to be either dead or ‘missing in action.’

Not surprisingly, both Ukrainian officials and their NATO supervisors are keen to bury this story, as well as the massive number of Ukrainian casualties incurred during this military debacle.

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Poland & Baltic Nations Welcome Macron’s Words Of Nuclear Escalation Aimed At Russia

Poland as well as Baltic nations have expressed approval of Wednesday’s ultra-provocative words by French President Emmanuel Macron which floated the idea of using France’s nuclear deterrent to protect the European continent from Russian threats.

Macron said he is opening a “strategic debate” on possibly extending France’s nuclear umbrella to all of Europe – a role currently played by US nukes stationed in NATO countries. He claimed in the televised address that unless Putin is defeated in Ukraine, he will threaten other European countries with invasion. 

Throughout the more than three-year long Ukraine war the tiny Baltic countries of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania have been outsized in their hawkish anti-Moscow rhetoric.

France remains the only nuclear power in the European Union, and it possesses some 290 nuclear warheads – according to media estimates – which is why Russian leaders quickly slammed the Macron comments as “extremely confrontational”

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‘We Can’t Stop Them’ – Thousands Of Ukraine Troops Suddenly Face Encirclement In Russia’s Kursk

The fuse has been burning slowly, but Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s risky August invasion of Russia’s Kursk region is about to blow up in his face in spectacular fashion — as thousands of Ukrainian soldiers are suddenly in imminent peril of being encircled, according to open source intelligence analysts. The crisis comes as Zelensky is under increasing US pressure to reach a negotiated end to the war — and a loss of captured Russian territory promises to make his already-deteriorated bargaining position even weaker. 

According to DeepStateMAP.live, an interactive map of the war run by Ukrainian military bloggers, their country’s forces in Kursk are nearly cleaved into two, with roughly three-quarters of Ukraine’s forces in Russia almost entirely surrounded on Friday. Their last connection between the two forces was a kilometer long and under 500 meters wide at its thinnest section. 

Black Bird Group military analyst Pasi Paroinen summed up the state of affairs for Reuters: 

“The situation (for Ukraine in Kursk) is very bad. Now there is not much left until Ukrainian forces will either be encircled or forced to withdraw. And withdrawal would mean running a dangerous gauntlet, where the forces would be constantly threatened by Russian drones and artillery.” 

Ukraine’s Kursk gambit, which surprised the world, was intended to stall Russia’s steady advances in eastern Ukraine, with hopes that Russia would be forced to engage in a major redeployment of forces to deal with the capture of Russian territory. Ukraine’s hold on the territory was also seen as a bargaining chip for Zelensky as the war now seems destined for a negotiated end. Not only does that chip appear to be vanishing, Putin could end up with a some new chips of its own — as Russia may soon have thousands more Ukrainian prisoners of war among its assets.  

In late February, Russia’s defense ministry said its forces had regained control of 64% of Kursk territory initially seized by Ukraine. Kiev’s cross-border offensive started in early August 2024 and has managed to control dozens of towns and villages and hundreds of square kilometers of territory. That accomplishment has reportedly been aided by thousands of North Korean soldiers, with reports that one to three thousand more were being sent in February. North Korea has denied its soldiers are fighting in the war.  

The New York Times reports that Russia is on the brink of a major victory in Kursk thanks to the coordinated work of North Korean troops and Russian drone units, advancing with the aid of intense Russian artillery and air bombardment. Ukrainian soldiers report an overwhelming concentration of new, fiber-optic drones that are controlled by an ultrathin cable rather than radio signals that are vulnerable to electronic jamming.

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