Tag: lebanon

Among the more interesting positions which the Biden White House has recently articulated to Arab allies in the Middle East is that the Untied States cannot restrain Israel if it decides to launch new offensives, namely against Lebanon.

Axios has revealed that during his trip to Beirut last week, Biden’s special envoy Amos Hochstein warned the Lebanese government, “The US won’t be able to hold Israel back if the situation on the border continues to escalate and that Hezbollah needs to indirectly negotiate with Israel instead of ratcheting up tensions.”

“The situation is serious. What President Biden wants to do is to avoid a further escalation to a greater war,” Hochstein had additionally said. “It will take everyone’s interest in ending this conflict now. And we believe that there is a pathway diplomatically to do it. If the sides agree to it.”

But what do the Lebanese see of US foreign policy? And what do Arab leaders and their population see? Israel has for decades topped the list of US foreign aid recipients, receiving a consistent $3+ billion annually. Washington regularly makes arms deals with Tel Aviv to the tune of hundreds of millions of dollars as well.

Some Israeli leaders have lately gone so far as to admit that Israel’s military might not be able to persist in its Gaza operations without the steady flow of US arms and ammo.

But the US has even reached out to Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, via intermediaries, to warn that it can’t hold Israel back in the event of escalation.

“During his meeting with Berri in Beirut, Hochsteim asked the speaker of the Lebanese Parliament to pass a message to Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah, that his assumption that the U.S. controls Israel is wrong, the sources said,” Axios wrote.

“According to the sources, Hochstein said the U.S. won’t be able to hold Israel back if the situation on the border continues to escalate and that Hezbollah needs to indirectly negotiate with Israel instead of ratcheting up tensions,” the report continued.

The US and European partners, especially France, have recently sought to entice and pressure the Lebanese government to reign in Hezbollah, something it has very limited capability in doing. The Lebanese Army is in reality almost powerless in dealing with Hezbollah, also as it has no air force to speak of. 

The US itself has imposed sanctions and limits on what aircraft Lebanon can obtain, fearing that it could be used in a conflict with Israel.

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The US has warned Israel against waging war in Lebanon, US and Israeli officials told Axios on 6 June. 

The officials told the outlet that a “limited war” against Hezbollah in Lebanon, which would entail an Israeli ground invasion, “would likely push Iran to intervene,” even if the operation stays in areas close to the border. 

According to Axios, the US has warned Israel about a scenario where pro-Iran fighters from Syria, Iraq, and elsewhere could flood into Lebanon to join the fighting in the event of an expanded war. 

The officials said that the Israeli army and defense establishment are increasingly concerned that the situation in Lebanon “is reaching a turning point,” Axios added. 

“The situation has been escalating since May because Hezbollah conducted more successful drone attacks against Israeli targets that weren’t intercepted,” a senior Israeli army official said. 

Washington has warned that escalation is not a “realistic option,” as it would be hard to stop it from “spinning out of control,” according to US officials. 

Axios notes that the administration of US President Joe Biden believes it is impossible to de-escalate the situation in Lebanon without first reaching a ceasefire in Gaza. This comes after months of Washington and Paris pushing infeasible de-escalation proposals for south Lebanon. 

Israeli officials have recently signaled that expanding the already indiscriminate campaign of airstrikes against south Lebanon, potentially into a ground invasion, could be imminent. 

Hebrew media outlets and Israeli journalists have highlighted that a decision of this sort would be devastating for Israel. 

“The war with Hezbollah will bring a great challenge to the home front, as the north and center will face a threat of a size and intensity they have not faced before,” said Haaretz newspaper’s Amos Harel. 

“It is difficult to report any good news on the horizon. As we enter the ninth month of the war … a series of conversations conducted over the past two weeks with officials in the security and military institutions raise more and more evidence that Israel is heading toward a multidimensional failure,” Harel added. 

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According to sources from the American intelligence community, Israel is reportedly flirting with the idea of launching a military incursion into southern Lebanon in the spring or at the start of summer should diplomatic efforts to keep Lebanon off the border fail. 

“We are operating in the assumption that an Israeli military operation is in the coming months,” an anonymous US official said to CNN on February 29, 2024. 

“Not necessarily imminently in the next few weeks but perhaps later this spring. An Israeli military operation is a distinct possibility,” the official stated. 

“I think what Israel is doing is they are raising this threat in the hope that there will be a negotiated agreement. Some Israeli officials suggest that it is more of an effort at creating a threat that they can utilize. Others speak of it more as a military necessity that’s going to happen.” 

Another American official indicated that there are factions of the Israeli government that are in favor of launching a ground operation in southern Lebanon, but others who are against such a measure. The second official added that any Israeli incursion into Lebanon could lead to an escalation that will get out of control. 

Per CNN, there is also a strong chance that the present Israeli aerial bombing campaign against Lebanon could broaden.

This bombing campaign could reach “much further north into populated areas of Lebanon and eventually grow to a ground component as well,” a third source connected to US intelligence informed the outlet. 

Israel has recently ramped up its attacks on Lebanon. As a response, Hezbollah militants have expanded their target range and launched rocket attacks deeper into northern Israel. 

Authorities in the US and France have been advocating for a de-escalation proposal with respect to Lebanon since the start of February. The main demand of the western proposal is a withdrawal of Hezbollah from the southern border region. 

According to a report by The Cradle, the proposal does not feature any Israeli concessions to Lebanon, such as withdrawing forces from areas that have been occupied for decades. Instead, Israel will be pushed to carry out small-scale withdrawals of its reservist forces from the border area. 

On top of that, the proposed deal features an ambiguous border demarcation agreement. Lebanese Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib recently described this proposal as a “partial” solution. 

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