After elections held earlier this month, Brazil looked like it could swing to the right and away from a fourth term for its little communist dictator, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Lula’s opponent, Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, achieved far more of the vote than expected. However, neither candidate received enough to avoid a runoff.
But it wasn’t just that. What happened down the ballot looked like a good indicator of what was to come. A win for Flávio, a win for the right, and a win for Brazil and the entire Western Hemisphere. I’ll admit that I’ve been analyzing this for a year and felt very confident about it (and I’ve yet to be wrong about these things; not to toot my own horn), but I also knew it was possible that Lula would cheat. Commies gonna commie, right?
For many of us here in the United States, it reeked of 2020. An incumbent who trailed in the first round staged a late surge to claim victory after a last-minute judicial intervention extended voting hours, transport disruptions appeared in areas favorable to the eventual winner, and the losing candidate immediately refused to concede while alleging the rules had been changed midstream. Several Spanish-speaking media outlets have quoted Donald Trump as saying it was like something out of the “Joe Biden playbook,” but I haven’t been able to confirm that quote myself, though he wouldn’t be wrong. It’s also giving me 2024 Nicolás Maduro vibes.
Many are calling the win “historic” because it’s been nearly four decades since an incumbent who trailed in the first round made such a comeback. But is it historic? Or did someone have this planned all along?
On October 4, Lula finished second with roughly 45.16% to Bolsonaro’s 47.03%. Three weeks later, the certified totals showed Lula at 51.79%, with about 64.3 million votes, and Bolsonaro at 48.21%.
