Already US officials have signaled they may just abandon hard-hit bases in the Middle East altogether, in the wake of Iran’s retaliation as a result of Operation Epic Fury, and a conflict that’s dragged on for nearly six months.
On Tuesday The Washington Post reviews the damage control underway, as the Pentagon ‘evaluates’ its future military footprint. All of this is framed as if Washington has a choice and full control over the matter, when it seems that all along the Trump administration was woefully underestimating what an Iranian response would look like.
“The Pentagon is evaluating its military footprint in the Middle East in an early sign of the Iran war’s potential to transform the U.S. presence in the region, according to eight people, including officials and others familiar with the matter,” Washington Post writes.
“One of the key areas the Defense Department is assessing is whether to pull back troops from the Persian Gulf, where America’s large overseas military bases have been battered by months of Iranian strikes, two people familiar with the ongoing analysis said,” it adds, further calling this a “once-in-a-generation” chance for the Pentagon to alter its presence in the region.
The whole thing is being reported as if the ‘smart people’ are in the room and in control, and also as if the US hegemon in the region didn’t already take a massive reputational hit following ‘forever wars’ and occupations in Iraq and Afghanistan. Over 20 years after the initial invasions, the Taliban remains in firm control of Kabul and Afghanistan, and Shiite pro-Iranian politicians run Baghdad.
And now a half-year into a war where the response should have been entirely anticipated (having been predicted by years and decades of Persian Gulf war-gaming and intelligence papers), this is where things stand:
“The war really did highlight the vulnerability … of U.S. forces in the region,” said Michael Ratney, a former diplomat who served as the U.S. ambassador to Saudi Arabia and the deputy chief of mission in Qatar.
Moving troops and equipment further west to Jordan, Israel or the Red Sea coast of Saudi Arabia could help alleviate some of the pressure, he argued, while noting the added distance wasn’t a “perfect solution to this problem.”
Iran has already demonstrated it can strike faraway targets in Jordan and Israel. Last month an Iranian attack on Jordan killed four U.S. service members.
Anyone with eyes to see knows that this is already happening. For months at this point, dozens of US refueling aircraft have clogged up Tel Aviv’s Ben Gurion airport, for just one example.
Hellbound and Down 