In defending his state’s sanctuary laws, California Governor Gavin Newsom warned that Immigration and Customs Enforcement might show up at polling places to “chill participation.”
That statement was an admission: Democrats know non-citizens are voting—and they are relying on it.
For years, Democrats and allied media have insisted that non-citizen voting is a “myth.”
Yet extensive research contradicts them. A 2014 Electoral Studies paper found that about one-quarter of non-citizens were likely registered, and over six percent voted in 2008.
The study concluded those votes “likely” changed key elections for Democrats, including Electoral College outcomes and a Senate race that enabled passage of Obamacare.
It also reported that 81.8% of non-citizens who admitted voting in 2008 supported Barack Obama.
Those findings were reinforced by Just Facts, which updated the estimates using 2022 Census data.
They determined that between 10% and 27% of non-citizens nationwide are illegally registered to vote.
With 19.7 million non-citizen adults counted in 2022, that means two to five million names appear illegally on voter rolls.
Given turnout rates, between one million and nearly three million non-citizens could cast ballots in 2024.
That is enough to swing battleground states and determine control of Congress.
The argument that those numbers are “too small” collapses when compared to recent election margins.
In 2020, Biden carried Arizona by just over 10,000 votes. Georgia’s margin was fewer than 12,000.
If even a fraction of the non-citizen votes identified occurred in those states, outcomes could have flipped.
Hellbound and Down 