Dear readers, I am delighted to share with you the fruits of a massive research project I’ve been working on, which is the reason why you haven’t heard from me in a very long time.
I quickly realised after I started working on it that I would have to prioritise it at the neglect of posting here. I got so swept up in it that I didn’t even have time to post about my Process 1 vs Process 2 work. I hope you will agree it was worth it.
I will start with the key findings and then try to explain the methodology in plain language. The paper is based on analysis of electronic health records (EHR) from one of Israel’s largest health insurance funds. For those of you who would rather read the paper itself, here’s a PDF.
Key findings
Here are the key findings (as summarised in a post on X).
Women vaccinated in early pregnancy (weeks 8-13) had a higher-than-expected number of foetal losses:
- Dose 1 = 3.9 more per 100 women [43% higher than expected: 13 vs 9]
- Dose 3 = 1.9 more per 100 women [19% higher than expected: 12 vs 10]
Late pregnancy losses were a big part of the signal.
Among all women, 1.1% lost their pregnancy after week 24, compared to 2.7% of women who received dose 1 in early weeks, and 1.8% of women who received dose 3 in early weeks.
Hellbound and Down 