In a press conference with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to “finish the job” against Iran with the support of President Trump.
Ever since his rise to power in the late 1990s, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has worked toward a war with Iran, presumably to demolish Tehran’s nuclear facilities but also to ensure its power projection in the region.
Now the emboldened Netanyahu wants to finish the job, decimate Iran’s nascent nuclear capabilities, undermine Tehran’s future and overthrow its rulers. After the misguided wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, Washington’s neoconservative empire-builders are also back, pushing still another forever war for a “paradigm shift in the Middle East.”
The Israel-Iran scenarios
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has discussed with Trump several possible levels of American backing. According to Israeli observers, there are now four viable scenarios for an Israeli attack against Iran’s nuclear facilities, as seen in the light of US-Israeli relations. Let’s name them.
In the cooperative scenario, the US and Israel cooperate in an attack against Iran’s nuclear sites, which will be followed by Trump’s ultimatum that Iran must entirely dismantle its military nuclear program.
In the clash scenario, the Trump administration would build on diplomacy to seal a nuclear deal. Yet, Israel would attack on its own and thereby undermine Trump’s efforts causing a bilateral drift between the two countries.
In the investment scenario, Saudi Arabia would offer the US hundreds of billions of dollars in investment, to avoid a destabilization in the region that could undermine Riyadh’s 2030 modernization program.
In the solo scenario, Israel attacks Israel’s nuclear facilities without direct US cooperation, but with the tacit consent of the White House. This would happen after the Trump administration’s threats and coercive diplomacy against Iran.
Ultimately, US priorities will matter the most. But these can be elusive and contradictory. Some in the Congress have called for more US military action, including direct attacks against Iran. Others have echoed the Biden Administration’s calls for restraint and de-escalation.
Here’s the problem: any escalation with Iran, whether by the US, Israel or both would likely regionalize the Gaza devastation, which is mis-aligned with Trumps’ economic and geopolitical goals in the Middle East.
Hellbound and Down 