A New York Times report says that in late September and early October the CIA produced analyses that suggested violence would be coming from Gaza but did not predict the large-scale attack on Israel stemming from Hamas militants just days into October.
Intelligence collected by the CIA and other partner agencies was used by analysts to create the reports, which cited a recent wave of protests in Gaza that could turn violent.
However, the CIA has not prioritized intelligence in the Gaza Strip for several years, due to other threats in the region that were seen as larger or more concerning, which gives a possible explanation as to why U.S. and Israeli intelligence was apparently caught off guard by the surprise attack on Oct. 7.
Hellbound and Down 