John Lott, who was hired by the Justice Department in October as senior adviser for Research and Statistics at the Office of Justice Programs, has published a study concluding that as many as 368,000 “excess votes” tipped the election outcome to favor Joe Biden in two consequential battleground states.
“Increased fraud can take many forms: higher rates of filling out absentee ballots for people who hadn’t voted, dead people voting, ineligible people voting, or even payments to legally registered people for their votes,” reads the study’s summary. “The estimates here indicate that there were 70,000 to 79,000 ‘excess’ votes in Georgia and Pennsylvania.”
The best estimate shows an unusual 7.81% drop in Trump’s percentage of the absentee ballots for Fulton County alone of 11,350 votes, or over 80% of Biden’s vote lead in Georgia. The same approach is applied to Allegheny County in Pennsylvania for both absentee and provisional ballots. The estimated number of fraudulent votes from those two sources is about 55,270 votes.
The study aimed to quantify how large of a problem voter fraud and other election irregularities were in the 2020 election. “The process is applicable to other states where precinct-level data is available on voting by absentee and in-person voting,” explains the study’s introduction.
Lott concludes that the discrepancies in absentee voting are not likely to have been caused by a shift by Democrats to vote absentee because of the pandemic, as the study controlled for in-person voting.
“In layman’s terms, in precincts with alleged fraud, Trump’s proportion of absentee votes was depressed – even when such precincts had similar in-person Trump vote shares to their surrounding countries,” Lott explains. “The fact that the shift happens only in absentee ballots, and when a country line is crossed, is suspicious.”
“The precinct level estimates for Georgia and Pennsylvania indicate that vote fraud may account for Biden’s win in both states,” Lott concludes.
Hellbound and Down 