Tag: ukraine

Trump’s Doomed Plan for Ukraine

“I’m not looking to hurt Russia,” President Donald Trump recently declared in a statement he posted on his TruthSocial account. “I love the Russian people, and always had a very good relationship with President Putin.” 

Trump, however, comes from the school of “hard love,” where punishment is applied to achieve the desired results.

And punishment was on Trump’s mind as he expressed his love and admiration for the Russian people and their leader, Vladimir Putin.

“I’m going to do Russia,” Trump wrote, “whose Economy is failing, and President Putin, a very big FAVOR. Settle now, and STOP this ridiculous War! IT’S ONLY GOING TO GET WORSE.”

The odd use of capitalization aside, one would imagine that if you are in the business of expressing your love in a public fashion, you might want to make sure that your facts align with the reality of that for which you’ve declared amorous intent.

Otherwise, you will find yourself living in a fantasy world of your own construction, populated not by your ostensible paramours, but rather figments of your imagination.

If you’re sincere about doing the Russian people and Vladimir Putin a “big FAVOR,” you might want to make sure it’s a favor they want to receive.

Calling the Russian economy “failing” considering the plethora of data showing it is anything but that, probably isn’t the best way to start date night. 

“If we don’t make a ‘deal,’ and soon,” Trump threatened, “I have no other choice but to put high levels of Taxes, Tariffs, and Sanctions on anything being sold by Russia to the United States, and various other participating countries.”

“We can do it the easy way,” Trump warned, “or the hard way.”

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Top Ukrainian intelligence official warns that Ukraine could cease to exist if peace deal is not reached by summer

In a stark warning to Ukrainian lawmakers, Kirill Budanov, the chief of the Main Directorate of Intelligence, has reportedly said that Ukraine could cease to exist if peace talks with Russia are not initiated by summer. Budanov’s statement was made during a closed-door meeting in the Ukrainian parliament, as reported by local outlet Strana.ua on Monday.

The intelligence chief’s warning comes at a critical juncture in the ongoing conflict, where Ukrainian forces are facing significant challenges. Reports indicate that Russian troops have been pushing back across the front line, leaving Ukrainian officials and commanders to grapple with manpower shortages and resistance from reluctant draftees.

Ukraine’s current position is precarious, with the country heavily reliant on foreign aid, particularly from the United States and the European Union. However, this support is not indefinite; analysts predict that the cash stream from the US, which has been sustaining Ukraine’s military efforts, could run dry by 2025. This looming deadline underscores the urgency of Budanov’s warning.

The situation is further complicated by internal political dynamics and external pressures. Ukraine’s reluctance to abandon its NATO membership aspirations, coupled with Russia’s insistence on the country’s permanent neutrality, creates a deadlock that is challenging to navigate. As Budanov’s warning suggests, the window for negotiation is narrowing, and the stakes are higher than ever.

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“Ukraine Is Running Out Of Time” – Austrian Armed Forces Colonel Issues New Warning

Markus Reisner, colonel of the Austrian Armed Forces and Head of the Theresianum Military Academy’s Officer Basic Training Institute, answers questions from ZDF viewers several times a week regarding the war in Ukraine, writes Mandiner, and this past Saturday, he responded to viewers asking about the impact of Donald Trump’s inauguration on the war.

“Not once did the word ‘Ukraine’ or ‘Europe’ appear. This is a clear indication of the direction things could take,” Resner said, adding that it appears “the U.S. will no longer support Ukraine with the same intensity as before.”

The colonel said that “Russia sees itself on the path to victory,” so he does not necessarily think there is any reason to change its strategy or negotiate in terms of a possible Trump/Putin meeting and possible U.S. sanctions.

“Ukraine is running out of time. Ukraine is losing this war right now. We must be aware of this. The images from the front are absolutely clear,” he continued.

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Russia Says Ukrainian Drones Target Nuclear Power Plant

Ukraine launched over 100 drones targeting Russian energy infrastructure. One Russian official said that a nuclear power plant was among the targets.

According to the Russian Defense Ministry, overnight Tuesday, its forces downed more than 100 Ukrainian drones. The UAVs targeted Russian energy infrastructure over a widespread area.

One of the drones was downed in the Smolensk Region near a nuclear facility. “According to preliminary information, one of the drones was shot down during an attempt to attack a nuclear power facility,” the region’s Governor Vasily Anokhin said. “There were no casualties or damage,” he added.

In the Belgorod Region, Russian authorities reported a drone killed a woman and her 2-year-old child.

Recently, Kiev has stepped up its drone strikes in Russia. Earlier this month, Ukraine launched its largest drone and missile barrage of the war. Among the targets was the TurkStream pipeline, which transports gas from Russia to Turkey.

Moscow typically responds to Ukrainian attacks inside Russia by bombing cities and infrastructure. Following a Ukrainian drone attack on Russia in December, President Putin said, “Whoever and however tries to destroy something in our country, he will face destruction many times larger in his own country and will regret its attempts to do that in our country.”

Additionally, the Kremlin often blames Washington for its role in supplying Kiev with the necessary arms, funding, and intelligence to conduct attacks in Russia.

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Putin Declares He Won’t Negotiate With Zelensky As Ukrainian Leader Has Outlawed Peace Talks

In a huge development which significantly raises the stakes for any future potential Trump-backed negotiations related to seeking ceasefire in the Ukraine war, President Vladimir Putin has said that he won’t negotiate with Ukraine so long as President Volodymyr Zelensky is in power, and on the other side of talks.

“If he wants to take part in negotiations, I will select such people, it’s not an issue. The question is about the final signing of the documents,” Putin said in a state broadcast TV interview on Tuesday. He argued that because of canceled elections Zelensky’s legitimacy has expired, and this means he “does not have the right to sign anything.”

Early in the war Zelensky had authorized a decree outlawing peace negotiations with Moscow. This happened in 2022 and there have not been direct engagements since, other than UAE-brokered POW swaps.

It was actually Zelensky who long ago declared that it is Putin who is illegitimate, and that Ukraine won’t enter peace negotiations so long as Putin is in power. It appears the Russian leader is now using the same tactic to turn the table, and create additional leverage at a moment Trump is pushing for talks and a final deal.

“On the question of the final signing of the documents…there cannot be a single mistake or wrinkle. Everything must be polished,” Putin emphasized.

But Putin in the fresh comments did leave an opening. “If there is a desire, any legal question can be resolved. So far, we simply don’t see such a desire” from the Ukrainian side, Putin stressed.

Essentially Putin is saying Zelensky would have to ‘move first’ to cancel that prior law banning talks with Putin’s government. This could by why the Kremlin is slow-playing Trump overtures which are meant to encourage everyone to get to the negotiating table.

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Trump & Ukraine: The Coming Battle Over Conscription

There may be a battle looming, not just between the Trump administration and Ukraine over the conscription of men between the ages of 18 and 25, but also within the Trump administration.

The call for Ukraine to cast a wider conscription net predates the Trump administration. Facing imminent loss on the battlefield, after NATO had bankrupted its supply of weapons, demanding that Ukraine throw more men into battle emerged as the last grasp solution during the Biden administration.

National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said, “In fact, we believe manpower is the most vital need they have. So, we’re also ready to ramp up our training capacity if they take appropriate steps to fill out their ranks.” Secretary of State Antony Blinken explained that “getting younger people into the fight, we think, many of us think, is necessary. Right now, 18 to 25-year olds are not in the fight.”

That call was picked up by Trump’s national security advisor, Mike Waltz, who said “one of the things we’ll be asking of the Ukrainians is, they have real manpower issues. Their draft age right now is 26 years old, not 18. I don’t think a lot of people realise that they could generate hundreds of thousands of new soldiers… [I]f the Ukrainians have asked the entire world to be all in for democracy, we need them to be all in for democracy.”

But Trump’s secretary of state, Marco Rubio, seemed to take the opposing view to Waltz, recognizing that throwing more Ukrainians into the battle compounds Ukraine’s problems rather than solving them. “The problem with Ukraine is not that they’re running out of money,” Rubio said at his January 22 confirmation hearing, “but that they’re running out of Ukrainians.”

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Zelensky Demands U.S. Troops Put Their Lives On The Line In Ukraine For Peace Deal

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has sparked outrage by insisting that American troops must be deployed to Ukraine as part of any potential peace deal with Russia.

Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, this week, Zelensky called for a massive Western peacekeeping force, including 200,000 European soldiers and U.S. troops, to enforce a ceasefire. His demand has drawn sharp criticism, particularly from those who question why American lives should be risked in a conflict thousands of miles from U.S. soil.

Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin has signaled openness to meeting with former U.S. President Donald Trump to discuss ending the war, further complicating the diplomatic landscape.

Zelensky’s bold request

Zelensky’s remarks at Davos were nothing short of audacious. “We need contingents with a very strong number of soldiers,” he declared. “From all the Europeans? Two hundred thousand. It’s a minimum. Otherwise, it’s nothing.”

He doubled down in an interview with Bloomberg, emphasizing that U.S. involvement is non-negotiable. “It can’t be without the United States. Even if some European friends think it can be, no, it can’t be. Nobody will risk without the United States,” he said.

The Ukrainian leader’s demand comes as Russia continues to advance in eastern Ukraine, with Moscow firmly rejecting any peace deal that includes a significant Western military presence. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has already dismissed similar proposals, stating that Moscow is “certainly not satisfied” with such arrangements. For Russia, Ukrainian neutrality is a key condition for peace, making Zelensky’s call for foreign troops a non-starter.

Zelensky’s insistence on U.S. troop deployment has drawn sharp criticism from those who argue that American soldiers should not be sent to die in a foreign conflict. Critics point out that Ukraine’s war with Russia is a regional dispute, and while the U.S. has provided significant military and financial aid, direct involvement risks escalating tensions and entangling the U.S. in a prolonged conflict.

Moreover, Zelensky’s demand raises questions about his strategy. By calling for a massive foreign military presence, he risks alienating allies who are already wary of escalating the conflict. His comments also highlight the growing desperation in Kyiv as Russian forces continue to make gains on the battlefield.

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How Washington Helps: Bloody Lessons From Ukraine to Bosnia

Nearly three years after Russian President Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine, Kiev’s outlook appears worse than ever. Ukrainian forces, facing manpower shortages, are losing territory at a faster pace than in the first 30 months of the conflict.

Now, Kiev looks at an evolving political situation where future support is less certain. President Donald Trump has promised to end the war in Ukraine, and several prominent figures in the MAGA movement are calling for an end to shipping billions of dollars to Kiev as Americans struggle.

If Kiev is going to make a deal to end the war, it will be decidedly worse than the one that was on the table in 2022. In April, just two months after the invasion, an agreement between Moscow and Kiev was nearly completed that would have seen Ukraine retain all its territory except for the Crimean Peninsula, which was annexed in 2014.

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Everyone Wants US Forces in Ukraine Except the US

Russia’s now unstoppable advance across eastern Ukraine ushers in the inevitability that Ukraine has lost, and the war will end. The election of Donald Trump ushers in the inevitability that the war will end with a negotiated settlement. Two things are now clear about that settlement: Ukraine will not be in NATO, and Russia will be in Ukraine.

Ukraine will not be in NATO because Russia will continue the war if NATO membership is on the agenda in the negotiations. But Ukraine will also not be in NATO because Trump has made it clear that he will not support NATO membership for Ukraine.

Russia will be in Ukraine because Russia will not return Crimea or, at least part of, the Donbas. But Russia will also be in Ukraine because Ukraine has now accepted that de facto reality. Though he refuses to legally acknowledge it, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has conceded that Crimea and the Donbas are lost to Ukraine. “De facto,” he said, “these territories are now controlled by the Russians. We don’t have the strength to bring them back.”

That leaves security guarantees for the remaining sovereign Ukraine as the key issue in the coming negotiations. Zelensky seems to now recognize that. In a January 22 Bloomberg interview, Zelensky said, “The only question is what security guarantees and honestly I want to have understanding before the talks. If [Trump] can guarantee this strong and irreversible security for Ukraine, we will move along this diplomatic path.”

Though Zelensky has said that “the only guarantee, currently or in the future, is NATO,” he will have to settle for his second choice. That second choice is a large European peace keeping force with the fully committed support of U.S. troops.

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The Europeans Are Unlikely To Accede To Zelensky’s Demand For 200,000 Peacekeepers

Zelensky demanded a minimum of 200,000 European peacekeepers during the panel session that followed his speech at Davos, which itself saw him propose that France, Germany, Italy, and the UK combine their forces with Ukraine’s in order to counter Russia’s in nearly equal numbers. He also suggested that Trump will abandon Europe in order to cut a deal over Ukraine with Russia and China. The subtext is that they should organize a large-scale peacekeeping mission before that happens.

They’re unlikely to accede to his demand, however, for the same reason that the UK is unlikely to actually establish a military base in Ukraine like it agreed to explore doing in their new 100-year partnership pact. None of the Europeans want to risk a war with Russia where they’d be left fighting on their own without American support, not even the nuclear-armed UK and France, since Trump isn’t expected to extend Article 5 mutual defense guarantees to allies’ forces in third countries like Ukraine.

He, who loves having as much control over everything as possible, naturally wouldn’t feel comfortable knowing that others could provoke a war with Russia that might then drag in the US. Trump’s grand strategic goal is to wrap up the Ukrainian Conflict as soon as possible so as to prioritize his far-reaching domestic reform plans while “Pivoting (back) to Asia” to more muscularly contain China. Anything that could come in the way of that agenda, especially others provoking a war with Russia, is anathema.

That said, it can’t be ruled out the Europeans might assemble a large-scale force on Ukraine’s Polish and Romanian borders for rapid deployment in the event of future hostilities, regardless of whether this is coordinated through US-controlled NATO or outside of it. For that to happen, however, Polish–Ukrainian ties would have to improve (Zelensky ignored Poland in his speech despite it having NATO’s third-largest army) and Romania’s populist frontrunner would have to lose May’s presidential election rerun.

Moreover, Europe would need to make meaningful progress on building the “military Schengen” for facilitating the movement of troops and equipment through the bloc to its eastern borders, otherwise whatever it assembles on the Ukrainian frontier and then sends across it would be logistically vulnerable. Polish-Ukrainian ties haven’t yet improved, Romania’s presidential election rerun hasn’t yet happened, and the “military Schengen” remains mostly on paper, all of which work against Zelensky’s plans.

Consequently, the likelihood of the Europeans assembling a large-scale force on Ukraine’s Polish and Romanian borders anytime soon is low, let alone them unilaterally deploying peacekeepers – whether 200,000 or just 2,000 – to Ukraine without prior US approval. Nevertheless, Zelensky’s Davos speech and panel session might serve to plant the seed of “ambitious thinking” in European policymakers’ minds, which could lead to them initiating such discussions with the US.

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