After an inconceivably fast twelve day march through Syria by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is in exile in Moscow, his government has fallen, the more than five decade’s long Ba’ath rule of Syria is over and a group descended from Al-Qaeda is in control of Syria.
The Assad regime only survived as long as it did because of Hezbollah ground support, Russian air support and significant Iranian assistance in the first round of the Syrian rebellion over a decade ago. This time, none of that was available.
Hezbollah had been critically wounded by airstrikes and assassinations in its war with Israel. To concentrate on its war with Israel, Hezbollah had withdrawn forces from Syria. And its ceasefire agreement with Israel prevented its presence in South Lebanon, hampering its ability to assist Syria. Iran had been weakened both locally by its exchange of attacks with Israel and regionally by the weakening of Hezbollah. Russia was focussed on its own war with Ukraine.
But it is not entirely clear that Iran and Russia lacked the ability to come to Syria’s aid more significantly. Despite the forces and material being committed to Ukraine, a recent report by Chatham House concludes that “Russia’s global power projection capabilities are undiminished.” General Christopher Cavoli, the commander of United States European Command and Supreme Allied Commander Europe, similarly told a congressional audience of the House Armed Services Committee that “Much of the Russian military has not been affected negatively by this conflict… despite all of the efforts they’ve undertaken inside Ukraine.”
Russia promised to “continue to provide support to President Assad.” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Russia is “actively studying measures needed to stabilise the situation in the region,” and Syrian military sources said Russia had promised that more military aid would start arriving withing 72 hours.
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