Tag: syria

US In ‘Direct Contact’ With Designated Terror Group HTS, Blinken Admits

The US has made “direct contact” with the group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) under Abu Mohammad al-Jolani which now holds Damascus and most major Syrian cities in the wake of Assad’s fall.

“We’ve been in contact with HTS and with other parties,” US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said following talks with Arab diplomats in Aqaba, Jordan.

This is the first official acknowledgement that the Biden administration is interacting with HTS, which has long been an officially US-designated terror organization, as it originated as Syrian al-Qaeda. Jolani also was once the personal envoy of ISIS terror leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.

NBC News has underscored, “The U.S. designates HTS a terrorist organization, making it legally impossible to work with the group, but contact underscores ongoing efforts to change that designation as the U.S. and its allies look to support Syria’s transition from Assad rule.”

A statement from Blinken’s meetings in Aqaba and signed by representatives of the US, EU, Turkey and several Arab countries called for a “a more hopeful, secure and peaceful future”. It urged the protection of women and all ethnic and religious minorities, and for the preventing of “the reemergence of all terrorist groups.”

Also, Jordan’s foreign minister stressed that regional powers don’t want to see post-Assad Syria “descend into chaos”. Given that it remains formally listed as a terror group, HTS was not represented in the Jordan meeting.

The EU has also listed HTS as a terror group. Jolani still has a $10 million bounty on his head. Ironically he has been seen openly at well-known areas of Damascus, and the US could target him if it wanted to – but is clearly not.

“As we see Syria move in that direction and, in a Syrian-led and Syrian-owned process, take these steps, we in turn will look at various sanctions and other measures that we’ve taken and respond in kind,” Blinken said from Aqaba.

Blinken affirmed the US position on Syria has been “communicated” to the new HTS leaders. Ironically, this comes after years of the US refusing to engage diplomatically with Bashar al-Assad, who was a secular ruler.

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Trading Iran for Al-Qaeda

In a reversal of the old proverb “Better the devil you know,” the U.S. and its partners in the Political West have embraced the devil they don’t. In Syria, they have traded Iran for al-Qaeda.

When Bashar al-Assad fell, many of his international partners suffered injuries. But none was hurt so badly as Iran. Unable to compete militarily with its far better armed enemies, Iran relied on a series of regional proxies. That front line of defense and deterrence has now been dismantled.

If Hezbollah was the heart of the proxy system, Syria was the logistical bridge between Iran and Lebanon upon which it depended. The effectiveness of Hezbollah was contingent upon the security of Syria. Syria was the bridge over which Iranian arms flowed to Lebanon. That bridge has now been broken.

Iran relied heavily on military bases and missile factories in Syria that have now all been lost. They have been lost both politically and physically. They have been lost politically because the new rulers of Syria, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), have sworn enmity to Iran. In his victory speech, HTS leader Abu Mohammad al-Jolani said that Assad had made Syria “a playground for Iranian ambitions.” No sooner had Damascus been captured than the Iranian embassy was stormed by Syrian rebels. Al-Jolani, has said, “We are open to friendship with everyone in the region – including Israel. We don’t have enemies other than the Assad regime, Hezbollah and Iran.”

They have been lost physically because, now with no air defenses at all, hundreds of air strikes have eliminated virtually all the military structures and weapons in Syria to ensure a toothless new regime. Israel has warned that “If the new regime in Syria allows Iran to re-establish itself, or allows the transfer of Iranian weapons to Hezbollah – we will respond forcefully and we will exact a heavy price.”

Asaad was a was an ineffective and brutal dictator. In the end, he fell, in large part, because he lost the support of his military and his people. The Syrian Army was not willing to die to save Asaad. But Asaad has been traded for al-Qaeda.

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What’s Really Behind Israel’s “Shock & Awe” Campaign In Syria?

A confluence of interests explains its actions, but these same actions also have some unintended consequences.

Israel carried out one of the largest attack operations in its history after launching nearly 500 strikes in post-Assad Syria, which has just been taken over by a group of “rebels” led by the terrorist-designated and Turkish-backed Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), formerly known as Al Qaeda in Syria. The goal is to create a “sterile defense zone”, to which end the IDF broached the Golan Heights buffer zone and advanced along the Syrian-Lebanese border, ending up just kilometers away from Damascus.

The operation is ongoing and it’s possible that Israel will push further, whether deeper into Syria and/or perhaps flanking Lebanon to reinvade Hezbollah from behind the defense lines that it built. It also can’t be ruled out that Israel will expand its annexed portion of the Golan Heights to include Syria’s portion and even areas beyond. Complementarily, Israel could arm nearby Druze to carve out a client state in southern Syria, even if such never declares independence. All of this advances the “Greater Israel” plan.

Russian Permanent Representative to the UN Vasily Nebenzia condemned “the continuing aggression of Israel against Syria”, though the argument can be made that Israel’s “demilitarization” of post-Assad Syria prevents strategic Soviet- and Russian-era weaponry from being sent to Turkiye and onward to Ukraine. The “rebels” and terrorists can’t operate them without extensive training anyway so they might have passed them along to their Western patrons as payment for their support if they weren’t destroyed.

Their loss of this equipment, and the possibility that former members of the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) who were trained to operate such could be allowed to join the new armed forces as part of the ongoing “nation-rebuilding” efforts, interestingly creates a military-technical opportunity for Russia. TASS reported on what Ibragim Ibragimov, a researcher at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations, told Vedomosti earlier this week.

In his view, “I don’t exclude that a new format of military-technical cooperation will appear soon and that Russian military instructors will play a role in establishing a new Syrian army.” It might be this possible opportunity that accounts for publicly financed Russian media’s restrained response to the Syrian regime change that was analyzed here. The explanation is that Russia might want to replace these wares, which the new ruling arrangement needs, so it’s mutually beneficial to remain cordial for now.

Therefore, it could turn out that Israel’s “demilitarization” of post-Assad Syria inadvertently serves to perpetuate Russia’s military presence, though other unrelated developments could still occur to ensure its phased but dignified withdrawal like some observers expect might be inevitable. It’s also interesting to wonder why Israel waited until now to destroy all of Syria’s strategic weaponry and didn’t do so earlier. The answer appears to be that Israel didn’t feel as threatened by Assad as it does by HTS.

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Commentary on Ukraine & Syria & Big Picture

Today’s Simplicius article focused on Zelensky’s dilemma to lower the draft age to satisfy the blood-hungry Outlaw US Empire politicos who demand such an act in exchange for more weapons that don’t work, thus making clearer than ever their policy of fighting Russia to the last Ukrainian. And then there’s the fact that Europe will be forced to pay for its own defense which is one of the main causes for the political chaos we’re seeing. Here’s my comment:

What we haven’t seen is mass kidnaping of people in far western Ukraine for military servitude, which is also where the bulk of Ukraine’s remaining economy resides. However, as I’ve commented here before, the best Ukie soldiers are now deployed in the major cities that are already or soon to come under attack. Outlying areas can thus be rapidly advanced over since what troops are there lack will and means–a company holding a village is reduced to a platoon or two that then retreats to the next village to augment the company that’s there, and the situation gets repeated over and over. This is seen a lot, which enables Russia to allow rather large flank areas thinly defended for long periods. The methodical advancement in Toretsk and Chasov Yar suggest Russian taking few casualties while almost all Ukie resistance is KIA’d via bombardment. A slow-moving Pac Man gobbling up everything is an a-visual analog to what’s happening on the ground. And the Russian advance seems slow because the high frequency of rotation, which keeps down casualties–fresh, warm, alert troops fight better and safer as they don’t need to take big risks.

Politically, EU/NATO is proving to all that it’s a liberal totalitarian entity as Rutte demanded all EU/NATO states give up social spending to support the war. Macron went to Poland because he has no government in France. The majority of Europeans have no will nor reason to fight Russia–it’s only those bribed by the Outlaw US Empire or EU/NATO freaks who insist. Many are thinking that they didn’t get freed from Soviet Colonialism to become serfs to US Colonialism. And we haven’t even entered the deeper half of Winter yet. Richard Wolff said it well today that Europeans are being forced to do something they don’t want to do and enter a future very few want, and the only way to avoid both is to revolt.

Syria is and will remain a tragedy for an unknown amount of time. Pepe Escobar wrote a very dark article on the situation, which also explains why Assad was never able to reconstitute the Syria that existed before 2010—the vast multitude of factions most of which could easily be bought and owned to be used as proxies. Nothing like Hezbollah or IRG existed in Syria that could form the power core for the political class. Politically, the situation was similar to Lebanon but much worse factions-wise: There’ were never enough unifiers and still aren’t. And for the ordinary apolitical people, it’s either go along to get along or become a refugee—neither of which will be easy to do. And as Escobar notes, the Zionist advance into Syria exposes Hezbollah’s left flank, which it probably never considered needed extensive defenses; now it does. More than ever the economic siege on the Genocidalists needs to be kept and escalated. That Hamas congratulated HTS is significant, but to what degree remains unknown.

Many interesting points were again made by the Hudson/Wolff duo on Nima’s show this morning that’s linked to above. One item I caught while looking for news was Medvedev’s visit to China for talks with Xi using his position as head of the United Russia party instead of his Security Council position. IMO, the ruse didn’t fool anyone as Putin has a very heavy domestic calendar, more of which will be posted later. Today he was very busy presenting state awards. One of the issued discussed by Hudson was should BRICS become a military alliance to counter NATO? Now, both Russia and China have made great efforts to note that neither the SCO or BRICS is or intends to become a military alliance. SCO already has a very potent anti-terrorism program—and we know who the #1 terrorist is—which is ready to confront the Outlaw US Empire’s Terrorist Foreign Legion. I agree that the only real power projection ability remaining for the Empire is its Terrorists, thus BRICS and the Global Majority only need to prepare themselves to combat that, not full-scale military operations. Having missiles capable of keeping the USN at bay as Ansarallah has shown ought to be enough for most nations. That leaves far more capital available for development.

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How the US and Israel Destroyed Syria and Called it Peace

In the famous lines of Tacitus, Roman historian, “To ravage, to slaughter, to usurp under false titles, they call empire; and where they make a desert, they call it peace.”

In our age, it is Israel and the U.S. that make a desert and call it peace.

The story is simple. In stark violation of international law, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his ministers claim the right to rule over seven million Palestinian Arabs. When Israel’s occupation of Palestinian lands leads to militant resistance, Israel labels the resistance “terrorism” and calls on the U.S. to overthrow the Middle East governments that back the “terrorists.” The U.S., under the sway of the Israel Lobby, goes to war on Israel’s behalf.

The fall of Syria this week is the culmination of the Israel-U.S. campaign against Syria that goes back to 1996 with Netanyahu’s arrival to office as Prime Minister. The Israel-U.S. war on Syria escalated in 2011 and 2012, when Barack Obama covertly tasked the CIA with the overthrow of the Syrian Government in Operation Timber Sycamore. That effort finally came to “fruition” this week, after more than 300,000 deaths in the Syrian war since 2011.

Syria’s fall came swiftly because of more than a decade of crushing economic sanctions, the burdens of war, the U.S. seizure of Syria’s oil, Russia’s priorities regarding the conflict in Ukraine, and most immediately, Israel’s attacks on Hezbollah, which was the key military backstop to the Syrian Government. No doubt Assad often misplayed his own hand and faced severe internal discontent, but his regime was targeted for collapse for decades by the U.S. and Israel.

Since 2011, the Israel-U.S. perpetual war on Syria, including bombing, jihadists, economic sanctions, U.S. seizure of Syria’s oil fields, and more, has sunk the Syrian people into misery.

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Trump’s Syrian Opportunity

With the shock overthrow of the Assad dynastic dictatorship that ruled Syria since 1971, new diplomatic opportunities are opening for the incoming administration. If President-elect Donald Trump is serious about his “ending forever wars” rhetoric, Syria offers him a chance to grab a low-hanging fruit.

Encouragingly, Trump himself seems to realize that. Commenting on Syria, he suggested that the events unfolding there are “not our fight”. He said that the “U.S. should have nothing to do with it (the situation in Syria). Let it play out. Do not get involved”. 

The Vice-President-elect JD Vance echoed this sentiment. When the neoconservative Washington Post columnist Josh Rogin categorically declared that in Syria “Freedom won[;] Russia, Iran, Hezbollah and Assad lost,” Vance admitted that such comments “made him nervous because the last time this guy was celebrating events in Syria, we saw the mass slaughter of Christians and a refugee crisis that destabilized Europe”. 

Trump-Vance’s prudence, as opposed to the wildly optimistic hawkish takes, is well advised. As Stimson Center’s Emma Ashford warned, “the track record of Arab Spring revolutions suggests a healthy amount of caution is warranted on where this is headed”. 

That certainly applies to Syria. Assad’s regime was an odious tyranny even by Middle Eastern standards, and its collapse is unlamented. The leader of the Islamist terrorist opposition Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)—formerly associated with Al-Qaeda—and the de facto new ruler of Syria is Ahmed al-Sharaa, more widely known as Mohammed al-Jolani, who is considered a terrorist by the U.S. and has a bounty of $10 million on his head. Since seizing power, he has embarked on a charm offensive promising an inclusive governance respectful of Syria’s ethnic and confessional diversity. Yet gruesome details of the extrajudicial executions of former regime officials and members of the Alawite religious group (to which the Assad clan happens to belong) are already emerging.

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The Syrian Rebellion: Who Are the Big Losers?

After an inconceivably fast twelve day march through Syria by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is in exile in Moscow, his government has fallen, the more than five decade’s long Ba’ath rule of Syria is over and a group descended from Al-Qaeda is in control of Syria.

The Assad regime only survived as long as it did because of Hezbollah ground support, Russian air support and significant Iranian assistance in the first round of the Syrian rebellion over a decade ago. This time, none of that was available.

Hezbollah had been critically wounded by airstrikes and assassinations in its war with Israel. To concentrate on its war with Israel, Hezbollah had withdrawn forces from Syria. And its ceasefire agreement with Israel prevented its presence in South Lebanon, hampering its ability to assist Syria. Iran had been weakened both locally by its exchange of attacks with Israel and regionally by the weakening of Hezbollah. Russia was focussed on its own war with Ukraine.

But it is not entirely clear that Iran and Russia lacked the ability to come to Syria’s aid more significantly. Despite the forces and material being committed to Ukraine, a recent report by Chatham House concludes that “Russia’s global power projection capabilities are undiminished.” General Christopher Cavoli, the commander of United States European Command and Supreme Allied Commander Europe, similarly told a congressional audience of the House Armed Services Committee that “Much of the Russian military has not been affected negatively by this conflict… despite all of the efforts they’ve undertaken inside Ukraine.”

Russia promised to “continue to provide support to President Assad.” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Russia is “actively studying measures needed to stabilise the situation in the region,” and Syrian military sources said Russia had promised that more military aid would start arriving withing 72 hours.

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US joins Israel in destroying Syrian military facilities and its navy by launching attacks against ISIS targets in Syria – 350 Israeli strikes, 75 US strikes – so far.

It’s only a matter of time before the supporters of Assad are rounded up and “prosecuted”.

Here’s a few headlines, the first describes events so far.

Syria – live: Israel fires more than 350 strikes against Syria as Mohammed al-Bashir appointed temporary PM

Here’s a report of US strikes:

Shockwaves in Syria – U.S. Targets Extremists After Regime Topples | RightWing

And another from a UK tabloid about the looting of the presidential palace, Iranian, Italian and Iraqi embassies and the central bank.

Syrian rebels loot banks, ransack Assad’s millions & storm embassies after toppling tyrant as nation descends into chaos | The Sun

Lots of embedded videos and pictures in those articles.

Israel is going to establish a “sterile zone” beyond the Golan Heights whilst the US is poised to recognise the rebel leader, as he says that elections will be held by March 2025.

There is no mention of UK and EU military involvement.

No doubt tens of billions of dollars are on the way from NATO countries – starting with humanitarian aid to the areas that have been blown to bits.

There are estimates of a million displaced Syrians out of the country’s 22 million or so remaining people.

There is also no news of any Russian, Iranian, Iraqi or Turkish military operations. Neither is there any news about the activity of Kurds seeking to establish an autonomous region in the north of Syria.

Right now, the Israeli and US forces are acting with impunity and with no consequences for their actions.

I doubt this is the end of the conflict or its repercussions.

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IDF Tanks Reach Just 25km From Damascus As Netanyahu Declares Golan Is ‘Ours Forever’

With Assad overthrown and Syria in shambles, Israel has declared the permanent annexation of the Golan Heights. “The Golan Heights,” announced Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, “will forever be an inseparable part of the State of Israel.”

He said that control over this historical Syrian territory “guarantees” Israel’s security and sovereignty and is of “great importance”. The announcement came as Israel pounded with airstrikes numerous Syrian bases, abandoned army assets, parked warplanes and helicopters, and even naval ships off Latakia.

The attacks kept going throughout the night, as Israeli and international sources describe:

Regional security sources and officers within the now-fallen Syrian army who spoke to Reuters described Tuesday morning’s airstrikes as the heaviest yet, hitting military installations and airbases across Syria, destroying dozens of helicopters and jets, as well as Republican Guard assets in and around Damascus.

“The rough tally of 200 raids overnight had left nothing of the Syrian army’s assets, said the sources,” the report adds.

Netanyahu further hailed that this signals the start of a “new and dramatic chapter” in the history of the Middle East. He called Assad a “central element of Iran’s axis of evil” but that Iran over-invested and everything collapsed.

Israeli media has further confirmed that after Israeli forces crossed the Golan area deeper into southern Syria, establishing a so-called security and buffer zone, IDF tanks are closer to the Syrian capital than ever before in history.

The Times of Israel details:

An Israeli military incursion into southern Syria has reached about 25 kilometers (16 miles) southwest of the capital Damascus, two regional security sources and one Syrian security source says.

The Syrian security source says Israeli troops reached Qatana, which is 10 kilometers (6 miles) into Syrian territory, east of a demilitarized zone separating the Golan Heights from Syria.

Despite the claims, the IDF has indicated that it only plans to operate on the ground inside the buffer zone, and not beyond it.

Some critics of the now ruling Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) have pointed out that this supposed “revolution” has resulted in a situation where Turkey is carving up the north and Israel is carving up the south, while the whole country is defenseless, without anti-air protection, against Israeli strikes.

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Muhammad al-Bashir Authorized to Form Interim Government in Syria

Mohammed al-Bashir, the head of the so-called “salvation government,” said on Tuesday that the Syrian opposition had authorized him to form an interim government in the country.

“By decision of the General Command, we have been authorized to form an interim government. This will be done tentatively by March 1, 2025,” al-Bashir told Al Hadath broadcaster.

The so-called “salvation government” was formed by opposition forces in Idlib since January 2024.

Syrian armed opposition groups captured Damascus on Sunday. Syrian Prime Minister Mohammad Ghazi al-Jalali said that he and 18 other ministers had decided to remain in the capital. Jalali also said he was in contact with the leaders of militant groups that had entered the city. The Russian Foreign Ministry said that Syrian President Bashar Assad had stepped down and left Syria after negotiations with some participants in the Syrian conflict.

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