Europe depends on the United States for intelligence because it never built the systems the U.S. operates. It has no missile early-warning satellites, few reconnaissance satellites, and no EU-level intelligence service capable of collecting intelligence. It relies on U.S.-built AWACS aircraft and surveillance drones, along with a U.S.-sponsored NATO fusion centre. Funded European replacements are not expected to become operational until 2029 or the early 2030s.
On the evening of October 12, Russia fired five Iskander-M ballistic missiles at Kyiv from its Bryansk region, according to the Ukrainian Air Force. The missiles hit civilian infrastructure. In a Facebook post, Zelensky said, “There was no warning from our partners regarding this strike.” He did not identify the partner involved.
Air Force spokesman Yurii Ihnat said Ukraine receives intelligence from partners on Russian strategic aviation, ships in the Black and Caspian Seas, and ballistic missile launches from Russia’s northern regions and occupied Crimea. He said this information sometimes fails to reach Ukraine, cited technical issues, and noted that this was not the first such instance. The Air Force is investigating why it received no launch information.
The EU’s Institute for Security Studies reported that U.S. satellites provide round-the-clock intelligence across the entire front line. It concluded that Europe’s ability to match the quality and quantity of that intelligence is limited.
Europe’s own defense also relies on American support. NATO’s Intelligence Fusion Centre, which provides all-source intelligence to the alliance, is a U.S.-sponsored organization.
Space-based missile launch warnings for Ukraine and NATO come from American satellites. The U.S. Space Force has launched 12 satellites carrying SBIRS or STSS missile-warning payloads. Its replacement constellation, Next Gen OPIR, will add five more. Allies receive the data through the Shared Early Warning System, a U.S.-only program that distributes American missile-warning data to select foreign nations.
Europe has no operational equivalent. The EU’s space-based early-warning program, ODIN’S EYE, began in 2021 as a €7.5 million EU-funded study, followed by a €90 million design-phase contract in 2023. Germany and France have since signed an agreement to implement the system. Their joint JEWEL framework targets initial capability in the early 2030s.
