The Black Sea is rapidly becoming too dangerous for international commerce. Commercial vessels have been attacked near Romania, Bulgaria, Ukraine, and Russia within days of one another. Ships carrying agricultural products and petroleum are being dragged into a war. Politicians seem to forget that global trade depends on moving goods safely between nations. Once commercial shipping becomes a target, the economic consequences extend far beyond Russia and Ukraine. Insurance premiums rise, freight rates increase, and eventually those additional costs are passed directly to consumers who have absolutely nothing to do with this war.
On October 5, a commercial vessel caught fire and sank off Romania, killing two people. The following day, two additional merchant vessels were struck by drones inside Bulgaria’s exclusive economic zone, with one reportedly sinking. Another vessel carrying agricultural oil was attacked near Odesa, while an oil tanker was struck off Russia’s Black Sea coast. Responsibility for some of these incidents remains disputed, but the economic consequences do not depend on which side launched the drones. Shipping companies must now calculate the possibility of losing an entire vessel and its cargo. Insurers must price that risk, and nobody in this business operates on charity.
People do not understand how quickly the cost of war moves through the global economy. A ship owner facing increased war-risk insurance premiums will demand higher compensation to enter dangerous waters. Charter rates rise, cargo owners seek alternative routes, and ports become increasingly expensive to operate. If insurance becomes unavailable at a commercially reasonable price, vessels simply stop sailing certain routes. Every additional expense becomes part of the final price, whether that means wheat, cooking oil, gasoline, or the thousands of other products.
