Yesterday, as part of laying out the two paths I can see the economy taking, I wrote that beneath the surface, the American consumer is tapped out. The average consumer – AKA the “retail investor” – has been a key in driving the stock market higher the past half decade.
This morning, I noticed two reports that came out yesterday that add to the conclusion that this “retail investor” looks increasingly broke.
Yesterday The Wall Street Journal highlighted how rising prices and the highest interest rates in decades have pushed even relatively high-income households into financial distress. One example was a hospital operations director earning nearly $200,000 annually who accumulated $15,000 in credit card debt at a 26% interest rate. Despite making the minimum payments, the balance barely moved.
And the broader data confirms this isn’t an isolated story.
As I’ve noted, the percentage of credit card balances that are 90+ days delinquent climbed to 13.1% in the first quarter, the highest level in 15 years and the worst reading since the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis. Total credit card balances reached a record $1.25 trillion for a first quarter, while average credit card interest rates have surged from 14.6% in early 2022 to roughly 21% today.
Delinquency rates have risen across low-, middle-, and high-income households alike. In other words, this is no longer just a lower-income problem. The financial strain is moving up the income ladder, which fits perfectly with what I’ve been writing about for months.
Student loan delinquencies have also exploded higher as repayment obligations returned. Credit card delinquencies have surged to post-financial-crisis highs.
Auto loan defaults, particularly among subprime borrowers, are sitting near multi-decade extremes. New data from Experian shows that nearly 19% of new vehicle loans now carry monthly payments of at least $1,000, up from 17.4% a year ago and more than triple the 5.4% level seen just five years ago.
Contrary to popular belief, these aren’t primarily luxury vehicles, either. Roughly three-quarters of the loans are tied to mainstream models, led by popular pickup trucks like the Ford F-150, Chevrolet Silverado, and Ram 1500.
The surge reflects years of rising vehicle prices and larger loan balances, with the average amount financed reaching a record $43,952 and the average monthly payment climbing to an all-time high of $770. While delinquency rates remain below 2018 levels overall, both 30- and 60-day late payments are increasing, with the most significant stress emerging among subprime borrowers, who face the highest risk of default as elevated rates and larger loan balances continue to strain household finances.
Meanwhile, as noted yesterday, the personal savings rate has collapsed back toward historic lows as households burn through what little financial cushion remains.
Hellbound and Down 