The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recently reported that overdose deaths during the 12-month period ending in December 2025 declined by 13.9 percent compared to the previous year, reaching a total of 69,973, the overwhelming majority of which were due to fentanyl. While a drop in overdose deaths is welcome news, it is important to keep in mind that the total number of overdose deaths for the year ending in December 2019 was 70,630. Researchers at the University of Pittsburgh found that the pre-pandemic trend line had grown exponentially since the late 1970s before the COVID pandemic disrupted that trend with spikes in overdose deaths, substance use, and suicide rates. The new numbers may signal a return to that trend.
Younger Americans Are Using Fewer Drugs
Another factor that may be contributing to the decline in overdose deaths is that younger Americans appear to be using many psychoactive substances less than previous generations. Federally funded surveys, such as the Monitoring the Future survey, have documented substantial long-term declines in adolescent cigarette smoking, alcohol use, and many illicit drugs, while CDC Youth Risk Behavior Survey data show major reductions in teen alcohol use and cigarette smoking over the past two decades. Even youth vaping rates have fallen from their 2019 peak, according to the FDA/CDC National Youth Tobacco Survey.
Researchers increasingly describe Gen Z as engaging in less risk-taking behavior overall than earlier cohorts, including less drinking, smoking, and drug use. While this trend alone probably does not fully explain the recent decline in overdose deaths, particularly since most fatal overdoses occur among adults in their 30s to 50s, it may reduce the number of younger people who progress into the highest-risk patterns of substance use associated with overdose mortality.
As pandemic-era supply chain and transportation disruptions eased, illicit drug markets also have become more diversified. During the pandemic, fentanyl largely displaced heroin in many regions of the country. More recently, some researchers and harm-reduction workers have reported signs that heroin availability has modestly rebounded in certain markets. Because heroin is less potent and generally longer-acting than fentanyl, some opioid users who developed tolerance to fentanyl may prefer heroin when it is available, potentially reducing exposure to the highly concentrated fentanyl products that drove record overdose deaths during the pandemic.
Hellbound and Down 