Ireland’s energy regulator has warned that a national electricity shortage is a “plausible” scenario within the next five years if peak demand reaches currently projected levels.
The assessment was published by the Commission for Regulation of Utilities (CRU) as part of its Risk Preparedness Plan (RPP). The report, a legal requirement for all EU member states every four years, examines potential disaster scenarios to assess their hypothetical severity and likelihood.
“CRISIS-TYPE SCENARIOS”
Working in “close collaboration” with grid operator EirGrid, the CRU examined “crisis-type scenarios” that could “lead to significant national-scale impacts on the electricity system” and the general public.
The findings were based on the All-Island Resource Adequacy Assessment 2025–2034 (AIRAA), a joint report by EirGrid and SONI which forecasts how supply and demand will align over the coming decade.
“If the maximum demand forecast trajectory described in the AIRAA materialised, it is plausible that there could be an electricity shortage event within the next 2 to 5 year period,” the CRU stated, noting that “as such mitigation plans to address this must be put in place.”
“REASONABLE WORST-CASE SCENARIOS”, NOT “PREDICTIONS”
However, the regulator stressed that the findings should be viewed as “reasonable worst-case scenarios” rather than “predictions”. The RPP is designed to ensure the energy system can plan and prepare for potential crises.
“These are not predictions of what will happen, but are plausible events that could occur in a reasonable worst case and typically would involve the alignment / occurrence of a number of simultaneous issues to occur to be actualised,” the regulator said.
The report noted that Ireland shares common risks with other EU nations, including extreme weather, natural disasters, malicious cyber attacks, pandemics, solar storms, and supply chain disruptions.
MITIGATION EFFORTS
To manage these risks, the CRU pointed to existing mitigation measures, including the Security of Supply (SoS) Programme and the recently introduced Large Energy User (LEU) connection policy.
The LEU policy specifically targets the power demands of new data centres, which accounted for 22% of Ireland’s total metered electricity in 2024, according to Central Statistics Office (CSO) figures. Under the new rules, these facilities are required to provide 80% of their power from renewable generation to reduce pressure on the national grid.
Further investment is also underway following the CRU’s approval in November of an €18.9 billion capital programme. The five-year plan aims to modernise the existing network and build new infrastructure to meet rising demand.
As an additional safeguard, the Moneypoint power station has been reconfigured as a backup facility. Following the end of coal-fired generation at the site last year, the plant now operates using Heavy Fuel Oil (HFO).
“Moneypoint power station is available as a generator of last resort since the start of July 2025,” the CRU confirmed. The facility will remain in place as an emergency “strategic reserve” until 2029.
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