Is the Chinese economy collapsing? Or is something worse waiting in the wings? The short answer is that we could be looking at something much worse than a crashing economy. China could be part of a collapse of the global monetary system.
We’ll begin the analysis with the latest official economic releases from China. These releases showed some of the weakest performance by the Chinese economy since the 2020 pandemic collapse.
Things Aren’t Looking Good
Industrial production growth for October declined to 4.9% (year-over-year) from a prior level of 6.5%. This was the weakest reading since August 2024. Some sectors receiving state support such as autos, computers, shipbuilding and telecommunications did better than average, but the broader manufacturing sector slowed materially, and mining output also weakened.
Retail sales in October were also fragile. There was overall growth of 2.9%, but certain sectors crashed, including household appliances (- 14.9%), building materials (- 8.3%), and automobiles (- 6.6%).
Sectors showing strength included jewelry (+37.6%, although this can be partly a proxy for buying gold in the form of jewelry) and cosmetics (+9.6%). This was the smallest increase in retail sales in years and is especially weak considering that October traditionally marks the beginning of a seasonal buying surge.
The most disastrous data came from fixed-asset investment (FAI), which showed a 1.7% year-to-date decline. This is the steepest decline since the pandemic crash year of 2020.
Hellbound and Down 