The explosion of mainstream media headlines following the release of the Hallett Inquiry module two report has concentrated on the conclusion that 23,000 deaths occurred as a result of governmental delays in enforcing lockdowns. While I admire the precision (not 22,000, not 24,000) the 23,000 figure is, as the inquiry states, an estimate based on modelling.
Whose modelling? If that of Neil Ferguson, who had previously been alarmist to the point of hysteria over a foot and mouth outbreak, then the model is fit for the dustbin. Garbage in, garbage out. But Baroness Hallett may not be so wrong – indeed the 23,000 may be an underestimate, but not for the reasons she has wrongly adduced.
SARS-CoV-2 was a novel virus. We now know, but not at the time, that it was accidentally released in China, but the exact mechanisms leading to that need not bother us. What mattered was that it appeared to be both very infectious and potentially fatal. However the fatality numbers are missing something (ignoring whether the figures were of deaths from Covid or deaths with Covid but from something else). Why was it fatal, leading to the acute syndrome of respiratory and other organ failure we now know as COVID-19?
I have read the lengthy report published on November 20th. It is a remarkable catalogue of governmental goings-on, but there is a glaring omission: there is nothing about medicine. There is science, epidemiology, statistics, models, but the fundamental question should have been: what is happening when people get suddenly sick, and how do we treat them if they do? If an infection does not kill people it is usually unimportant: we don’t go berserk over the common cold. If it does we need to know why and fix it. This is not an investigation for epidemiologists, scientists, statisticians, public health doctors, politicians and others who have no experience of managing acute medical emergencies. It is for clinicians – front-line doctors who see an illness, do investigations and arrange treatment.
Where were they? And why has this report completely failed to ask the question – where were the clinical experts?
Hellbound and Down 