he U.S.-Mexico border remains a flashpoint for debates over guns and crime. Mexico has long complained that guns from American firearms stores flow south to killer cartels responsible for tens of thousands of deaths each year.
In fact, in 2021, the Mexican government sued U.S. gun manufacturers blaming them for the bloodshed. It claimed that up to 90% of guns recovered at Mexican crime scenes trace back to the U.S. This figure, often echoed by U.S. policymakers, has fueled calls for tighter gun laws.
But a Full Measure investigation found the reality to be far different.
“Ever since I was first assigned to work on firearms trafficking on the Southwest border, it has widely been reported and utilized that the U.S. civilian firearms market is responsible for the majority of crime guns being recovered in Mexico,” former Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms Special Agent John Dodson tells Full Measure. “[That] our right to bear arms is to blame for the violence in Mexico and along the southwest border. [But] the vast majority of crime guns recovered in Mexico are purchased directly by the Mexican government.”
Dodson says it’s an important fact that is often kept hidden from the public. Most of those guns flowing to Mexico and recovered at crime scenes there were sold legally to the Mexican government – by the US government in a well-intentioned program that dates back to the early 2000s.
“Why is the US government selling so many guns to the Mexican government?” Full Measure asked Dodson in an interview.
“When we first started telling the Mexicans, ‘You have to do something to stop the drug trafficking coming north of the border,’ the Mexican authorities needed resources and funds to do that,” he replied. “They needed to get the equipment to combat the Mexican drug cartels. So we started funding these operations, providing them with military surplus equipment, helicopters, firearms, providing them with hundreds of millions of dollars to purchase equipment. Much of that firearms.”
The U.S. gave Mexico money and issued gun licenses for their government to buy weapons for counter-narcotics operations.
“What’s the importance of that?” Full Measure asked.
“The impression that people have and the impression that the Mexican government is trying to push forward, not only publicly, but in their lawsuit against the Arizona dealers is that the U.S. civilian firearms market is to blame for the violence and the firearms activity in Mexico. And that is simply not the case,” says Dodson.
The State Department audits only a tiny sample – less than 1 percent of sales – but the results are disturbing: In 2009, more than a quarter (26%) of the guns sold to the region that includes Mexico were “diverted” into the wrong hands, or had other “unfavorable” results.
“When Mexico traces these guns, the report shows they were purchased by their own government,” Dodson says. “They know this, but the narrative blames U.S. dealers.”
Full Measure then asked: “So you must have told everybody, including your supervisor, so they knew?”
“Yes,” Dodson says. “I’ve been pounding this drum for what, almost 16 years now. I’ve brought this up to every supervisor I’ve had with ATF since 2009. I’ve taken this as far through my chain of command as I can take it. Up until the day I retired, I even spoke to the highest ranking DOJ official in Mexico City and showed them this data and nothing has changed.”
“You’re sending people to fight cartels, and in another office, someone’s authorizing sales that arm those cartels,” Dodson said. He argues that halting these sales – by canceling Mexico’s FFLs and export licenses – could cut 70% of cartel-bound U.S. guns “in one phone call.”
Hellbound and Down 