President Trump’s nomination of economist E.J. Antoni to lead the Bureau of Labor Statistics has triggered those infected with Trump Derangement Syndrome. That’s too bad, because Antoni has some exceptional ideas to modernize economic data collection and reporting.
Regardless of this latest TDS outbreak, it is time for the Bureau to modernize data collection and use available technology to get markets the most accurate and comprehensive information possible.
I’m no economist. I changed majors from economics to English before my junior year. But I can still hear my late father every month complaining about two things – the inflation report and the jobs report. My dad lived in the markets. CNBC burned like a log fire in our house. And those damn inflation and job reports were always flawed to my dad.
Inflation reports underreported some things and overreported others. The jobs report also has flaws. The current methodology at the Bureau is already flawed. Antoni knows exactly why and could make them better.
The reports, for example, downplay inflation by underemphasizing things we all consume.
The jobs report is also often a snow job. Goldman Sachs estimates that upcoming revisions to the Bureau’s 2024 jobs data may show a drop of up to one million jobs.
Antoni notes that the Bureau fails to differentiate between full-time and part-time jobs.
This methodological failure has masked labor market weakness. After COVID, many Americans began piecing together multiple gigs. America met JD Vance’s grandmother, Mamaw, in “Hillbilly Elegy.” She worked multiple part-time jobs to get by.
Yet the status quo at the Bureau of Labor Statistics is to count the part-time jobs as full-time jobs.
Changing this flawed methodology, as Antoni suggests, seems sound.
Antoni has been pushing for refinements to the system from his perch at the Heritage Foundation, where he is the chief economist.
Did I say Heritage Foundation? Indeed, and thus we arrive at another triggering event for the hatred of Antoni. He comes from the premier conservative think tank, not the halls of Harvard.
To sink Antoni’s nomination, his foes have turned to a ninety-year-old ship.
Full disclosure. When I was a child, I built plastic model airplanes. My models included the ME-109, the iconic fighter in the Luftwaffe, as well as the RAF Spitfire. These two planes dueled over the skies of southern England to decide the fate of Western civilization. I even built models of the stubby, ridiculous-looking ME-163 Komet. You could buy the plastic model kits at the mall toy store for about $5. I don’t remember if they included the authentic swastika decals or if I threw them out. Even more damaging for my career, I displayed the models on my bookcase!
What does this have to do with Antoni, a naval history enthusiast?
Hellbound and Down 