When Donald Trump entered the White House for his second term as president, he had an excellent opportunity to extricate the United States from the quagmire war between Russia and Ukraine. His instincts–that continued involvement in that conflict was not in America’s best interests—were sound. Indeed, he signaled throughout the 2024 presidential campaign that he intended to terminate military and financial aid to Kyiv as soon as possible. Most of his MAGA supporters seemed to agree that the Biden administration’s willingness to send billions of dollars to Ukraine when the United States had pressing needs at home was disgraceful.
Just months into his term, however, the president seems to have abandoned the goal of jettisoning the Ukraine commitment. Instead, he has continued weapons shipments to Kyiv and authorized new ones. He also expresses growing hostility toward Russian President Vladimir Putin and is making ever more unrealistic demands on Moscow. In mid-July, that shift in policy included his insistence that the Kremlin accept a comprehensive ceasefire as the first stage of a peace accord with Ukraine—and do so within 50 days. In late July, Trump moved up the deadline for Moscow’s acquiescence to such terms to no more than 10 to 12 days. Otherwise, he warned, the United States would impose new economic sanctions on Russia far more onerous than those already in effect.
The threat to impose stronger economic sanctions, though, has lost much of its clout. Despite suffering some economic pain, Russia has been surprisingly resilient in handling existing sanctions. Moscow has done an especially impressive job of finding alternative markets for its principal exports, most notably oil and natural gas. There is no reason to believe that the situation would be different this time. Increasing Washington’s military support for NATO’s Ukrainian proxy might have more impact, but it also would be utterly reckless, bringing the specter of World War III into play.
Trump has picked an especially inauspicious time to join Ukraine’s Western fan club. It is ironic that he is continuing– and even escalating–Washington’s commitment to Ukraine at precisely the moment that Kyiv’s status as viable U.S. and NATO client has become increasingly doubtful. Russia continues to make gains on the battlefield, slowly conquering additional Ukrainian territory. The bloodied Ukrainian forces appear increasingly beleaguered, and Russia (because of its much larger population and military reserves) is better positioned for a continuing war of attrition.
Hellbound and Down 