The rhetoric of European leaders in response to Vice President J.D. Vance’s statements at the Munich Security Conference has been a mix of genuine fear and false bravado. They are terrified about the prospect of the U.S. rethinking its lopsided trade relationship with Europe and abandoning its commitment to provide for Europe’s defense. At the same time, they have flirted with treating the U.S. as just another nation, as if Europe has the economic heft and military potential to assert itself as an autonomous geopolitical power center. The Trump administration’s response to this alleged confidence has been clear: Go ahead and try.
After all, the 47th president’s first several weeks in office have showcased the effective use of tariffs as statecraft, with Trump getting concessions from Mexico and Canada on fentanyl and border security. Next up on the docket is a reported 10 percent levy on all exports coming from the European Union. This coincides with the EU’s commitment to ramp up sanctions against Russia later this month. Aluminum, fertilizer, and a number of other products will now be restricted, along with a host of additional sanctions on Russia’s shadow oil tanker fleet. The likely effect will be to raise prices even higher as agricultural costs increase and European industry is further strangled amid efforts to keep Russian energy out.
Europe appears to be at the crossroads of practical reality and ideological principle. The commitment of the political class to punish Russia for invading Ukraine no matter the cost is being rejected at the ballot box as populist parties win elections across the continent. In reaction to the rising tide of populism, the EU leadership is mulling a mechanism for outright rejecting election results they deem illegitimate. The blacklisting of certain populist parties in order to bar them from participating in governing coalitions is sure to further inflame political tensions. Vance, in his Munich speech, drew attention to this exact issue.
But in reality, it is the Trump administration’s America First agenda that can restore some balance to the European continent. This may sound like a paradox to those at the Munich conference who were so incensed about Vance’s chastisement of their liberal internationalist orthodoxy—a chastisement that equally applies to the U.S. ruling class as well, as evidenced by the recent revelations into the deep rot at USAID. Prioritizing the U.S. national interest by ensuring fair trading practices and more reciprocal relationships with European countries will not only serve America well, but will also help to strengthen the U.S. geopolitical position in Europe and the world more broadly.
Hellbound and Down 