In the late-night hours of November 6 while most of the country was asleep, a “huge and improbable Dem vote dump,” to quote the “Shylock Holmes” (@shylockh) X / Twitter account that dropped the news, resulted in the Wisconsin Senate race being handed to Democrat Tammy Baldwin instead of Republican Eric Hovde.
Two counties in particular, Dane and Winnebago, saw oddly improved Democratic vote counts at numerous points during the count. Every time the GOP started to pull ahead in the race, the Democrat vote spikes became observably more “extreme” to offset it.
Also, in Milwaukee at 3:31am, there was a single count update of 109,000 votes, 83 percent of which favored Democrats. That vote count dump ultimately flipped the outcome of the race from Hovde to Baldwin.
“This vote batch is improbable on several dimensions,” Shylock Holmes tweeted.
- It is late at night
- It differs from the 67% Dem vote share beforehand
- It is 25% of all Senate votes cast in Milwaukee
- It is a considerable fraction (3.2%) of votes in the overall race
- The race was close beforehand (49.1% Dem vote share)
- It flipped the outcome of the race”
Hellbound and Down 