The Case for Pessimism in Sino-American Relations

On September 11, the Chicago Tribune published an op-ed by the director of the Asia Engagement Program at Defense Priorities and director of the China Initiative at Brown University, Dr. Lyle Goldstein, on the need for Washington to work to improve its relations with Beijing.

Formerly a research professor at the U.S. Naval War College for two decades, Dr. Goldstein retains nothing but respect from this author—referencing him at several points in The Fake China Threat and Its Very Real Danger regarding the security situation around the Taiwan Strait.

However, I could not but remark upon a few key passages that stood out to me in reading his generally worthy commentary from last week.

First, regarding the notion that the selection of Minnesota Governor Tim Waltz, who spent time teaching in China in his youth and has visited the country many times, as the Democratic vice presidential nominee offers evidence that the party “now understand the stakes in this most pivotal bilateral relationship,” seems wanting for evidence of this recognition.

From Politico to the The New York TimesNBCto TIME—what mattered was his ability to appeal to key demographics in the handful of states in play in the election without alienating other key constituencies in the Democrat’s confused big-tent coalition; he is a white, middle class guy, a veteran and gun owner who also supports all the key pillars of the progressive gospel, from climate change to gun control to abortion access. Zero mention of his expertise regarding China.

And even if Walz had some ideas as to what might be done, if the Pentagon and beltway securocrats disagreed, which they certainly would if his inclination were toward moderation, we already know from Donald Trump’s undermined attempted reset of relations with Russia that it isn’t going to happen.

On top of which, as Dr. Goldstein acknowledges, despite criticizing Trump’s bellicose first-term China policy from the sidelines, once in office the Joe Biden administration simply carried on the policy.

Much like going along with the previous administration’s Iran policy, one suspects it is simple cowardice in the face of the political calculation that being called “weak” on national security, true or not, would be more electorally damaging that making the right call geopolitically.

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Author: HP McLovincraft

Seeker of rabbit holes. Pessimist. Libertine. Contrarian. Your huckleberry. Possibly true tales of sanity-blasting horror also known as abject reality. Prepare yourself. Veteran of a thousand psychic wars. I have seen the fnords. Deplatformed on Tumblr and Twitter.

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