A paper published in The Lancet in 2022 entitled Global impact of the first year of COVID-19 vaccination: a mathematical modelling study, estimated that COVID vaccinations prevented nearly 20 million excess deaths.
Here’s what I and others I respect think of this modeling study.
My take
Modeling studies can be very inaccurate and misleading.
The study shows that for every 10,000 people vaccinated, 36 deaths from COVID are averted!
Over 5.5 billion people have taken the shot, so the paper calculates the benefit at 5.5e9*36/10000 = 19.8M lives saved.
That’s how they get the number. It’s that simple.
So did they do a reality check on this? No, of course not. Otherwise the paper wouldn’t be accepted.
In the Pfizer trial, there were 22,030 who got the shot. So that means the drug averted 2.2*36 deaths = 79 COVID deaths.
It’s pretty well accepted that the vaccine only lasts 6 months which is why they tell you to get a booster every 6 months.
So how many net COVID deaths were “saved” in the Pfizer clinical trial? Per the supplementary appendix it was just 1.
Randomized clinical trials are among the highest quality scientific evidence available.
1 isn’t anywhere close to 79.
So we have to reject the Lancet COVID lives saved modeling study as wildly inaccurate.
And yet, the paper isn’t retracted!?! Which of course causes us to be very suspicious of anything published in medical journals nowadays that is COVID vaccine related.
Hellbound and Down 