An assumption made by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (“IPCC”) in its most recent report is that the warming caused by the increase in long-wave back radiation was due solely to the anthropogenic greenhouse effect.
The IPCC attributes 100% of the warming to this effect and justifies this with model calculations. However, a study published in 2021 proved this to be incorrect.
The analysis of the measured data by Rolf Dübal and Fritz Vahrenholt showed that the warming due to the decrease of short-wave radiation and the increase in long-wave radiation is mainly attributable to the cloud effect.
“The direct aerosol effect is rather small, but the indirect effect via the cloud formation may be larger,” the researchers noted in their peer-reviewed paper.
The two researchers investigated the Earth’s radiation balance over the last 20 years in a peer-reviewed study published in the journal Atmosphere in September 2021. The study titled ‘Radiative Energy flux variation from 2001 – 2020’ brought to light that the warming of the Earth in the last 20 years is mainly due to a higher permeability of clouds for short-wave solar radiation. The authors came to this clear conclusion after evaluating the CERES radiation data.
“The warming of the last 20 years has been caused more by change in the clouds than by the classical greenhouse effect,” they said.
Adding, “The time span of 20 years is still too short to be able to decide conclusively whether the current heating phase is a temporary or permanent development. In the former case, climate forecasts will have to be fundamentally revised.”
The study is technical and difficult for a layman to understand. However, Vahrenholt and Dübal explained what it all means in an article which you can read HERE. Dr. Joseph Fourier recently highlighted the study’s findings on LinkedIn.
Hellbound and Down 