The US has warned Israel against waging war in Lebanon, US and Israeli officials told Axios on 6 June.
The officials told the outlet that a “limited war” against Hezbollah in Lebanon, which would entail an Israeli ground invasion, “would likely push Iran to intervene,” even if the operation stays in areas close to the border.
According to Axios, the US has warned Israel about a scenario where pro-Iran fighters from Syria, Iraq, and elsewhere could flood into Lebanon to join the fighting in the event of an expanded war.
The officials said that the Israeli army and defense establishment are increasingly concerned that the situation in Lebanon “is reaching a turning point,” Axios added.
“The situation has been escalating since May because Hezbollah conducted more successful drone attacks against Israeli targets that weren’t intercepted,” a senior Israeli army official said.
Washington has warned that escalation is not a “realistic option,” as it would be hard to stop it from “spinning out of control,” according to US officials.
Axios notes that the administration of US President Joe Biden believes it is impossible to de-escalate the situation in Lebanon without first reaching a ceasefire in Gaza. This comes after months of Washington and Paris pushing infeasible de-escalation proposals for south Lebanon.
Israeli officials have recently signaled that expanding the already indiscriminate campaign of airstrikes against south Lebanon, potentially into a ground invasion, could be imminent.
Hebrew media outlets and Israeli journalists have highlighted that a decision of this sort would be devastating for Israel.
“The war with Hezbollah will bring a great challenge to the home front, as the north and center will face a threat of a size and intensity they have not faced before,” said Haaretz newspaper’s Amos Harel.
“It is difficult to report any good news on the horizon. As we enter the ninth month of the war … a series of conversations conducted over the past two weeks with officials in the security and military institutions raise more and more evidence that Israel is heading toward a multidimensional failure,” Harel added.
Hellbound and Down 