Tag: nato

Europe Reveals Itself as Ridiculous in Ukraine

By Donald Trump’s transactional criterion, NATO has been a costly failure that needs fixing or needs to be cut lose. Europe has failed to pay the price and has left the U.S. with the financial and military burden of defending Europe. The war in Ukraine has proven the point.

But that was never the point of NATO. The point of NATO was never economic nor transactional. The point of NATO was, in large part, to keep Europe militarily coordinated with, dependent on and subordinate to the United States. The point wasn’t to extricate the U.S. from Europe, it was, as Lord Ismay, the first Secretary General of NATO explained, precisely “to keep the Americans in Europe,” while keeping the Russians out. By that criterion, NATO has been a massive success. The Ukraine war has proven that point too.

While it continues, with a loud voice, to make demands regarding the defense of Ukraine and the terms for ending the war, Europe has revealed to the world that it is unable to mount that defense without the U.S. and that it has been sidelined in the negotiations, leaving decisions about Europe to the Americans. 

Europe is unable to supply Ukraine with the weapons it requires and that Europe insists Ukraine must receive. The U.S. has reiterated that it will no longer be the font from which Ukraine’s weapons flow. On August 10, Vice President Vance said clearly again that the U.S. is “done with the funding of the Ukraine war business.” Europe does not have the stockpile to spare nor the capacity to manufacture a fraction of the weapons Ukraine needs. And though Europe has, by necessity, accepted the U.S. plan that Europe can send American weapons to Ukraine if they pay for them, that will not provide Ukraine with even close to the amount of weapons the U.S. was supplying. And even that was not enough.

Not only can Europe not supply the weapons, they cannot supply the troops. Europe has, to its embarrassment, publicly conceded that it cannot mount the number of troops needed to send to Ukraine as peacekeepers after a ceasefire.

The war in Ukraine has exposed Europe’s dependence on the United States. Europe can neither provide the weapons nor the troops to defend itself. Europe has been revealed as dependent on, and subordinate to, the United States.

Ukraine is now facing a crisis on the battlefield. Russia’s military efforts were long dismissed as not rapidly gaining ground. But keeping the media focus on that criterion kept the public in the dark about the real criterion. Russia’s war of attrition was devouring and exhausting Ukraine’s weapons and, more importantly, manpower. The shrinking Ukrainian armed forces is running out of weapons to defend itself against the massive and still growing Russian army. There are not enough soldiers to fill the front line. That leaves gaps in the line. As Ukraine moves troops from other places to fill those gaps, it leaves even bigger gaps in those places. Russia’s war of attrition was setting up this moment. And now, Russian troops are breaking through those gaps in the lines. 

For the first time in the war, the Russian armed forces have broken through key defensive lines and their rapid move west is now measured in miles and not inches. Logistical hubs critical for the Ukrainian armed forces to supply their troops in the east have been partially infiltrated and surrounded. Russian positions are being consolidated and roads that are lifelines to Ukrainian soldiers have been partially cut. There is also reliable reporting from both Russian and Ukrainian sources that the rapid advance has brought the Russian army all the way to the heavily fortified second Donbas fortification line, which they have now breached. Beyond that defensive line is largely open fields with no organized line of defense. The Russian armed forces may then be free to rapidly advance, making the Russian goal of control of the entire Donbas a real possibility. For the first time in the war, the Ukrainian armed forces face the very real possibility of collapse. 

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On Ukraine war, Euro leaders begin to make concessions — to reality

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky huddled with European leaders yesterday in advance of Donald Trump’s highly touted meeting with Vladimir Putin in Alaska. The call, which Trump joined as well, was viewed as Europe and Ukraine’s final chance to influence the American president’s thinking ahead of the U.S.-Russia summit in Anchorage.

With Ukraine’s position on the battlefield progressively worsening and Trump renewing his push for a ceasefire, European leaders have begun to make concessions to reality. Most strikingly, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said yesterday that the frontline should be the starting point for territorial negotiations, echoing NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte’s recent comment that there may be a need for de facto recognition of Russian occupation of Ukrainian land.

Moreover, in response to Putin’s proposal last week to agree to a ceasefire in exchange for Ukraine’s withdrawal from the rest of Donetsk region, Europe and Ukraine have insisted that any land swaps must be reciprocal. While European leaders remain firm that the norm of territorial integrity must be upheld in principle, these moves clearly embody a shift from the more uncompromising stance they embraced through the first three years of the war.

That said, some aspects of Europe’s stance remain delusional.

Prior to their meeting with Trump yesterday, Ukraine and its European partners agreed on a series of principles for negotiations with Russia. Among these remains the long outdated notion that Russia cannot have a veto over Ukraine’s NATO accession, even though the Trump administration has already ruled this prospect out. Even Trump’s much more transatlantically friendly predecessor Joe Biden was not prepared to take any tangible steps to make Ukrainian membership in NATO a reality.

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Moscow flexes military muscle: Russia’s Oreshnik hypersonic missile strikes fear across NATO bloc and Ukraine

  • Russia’s Oreshnik hypersonic missile poses an unprecedented challenge to NATO, capable of speeds exceeding Mach 10 and carrying multiple independently targetable warheads, making existing air defenses obsolete.
  • The missile’s kinetic energy alone causes devastating damage, likened to a nuclear blast even with conventional payloads. Its ability to strike six targets simultaneously and penetrate bunkers forces a drastic shift in military calculations.
  • The missile’s deployment has rattled Europe, with warnings it could hit Brussels in 17 minutes and Polish bases in 11 minutes – pressuring NATO and amplifying fears of escalation. Some European leaders may seek diplomatic offramps rather than confrontation.
  • The Oreshnik’s dual conventional/nuclear payload capability blurs retaliation thresholds, aligning with Putin’s escalation doctrine. Russian officials explicitly warn NATO of “catastrophic damage” within minutes if countered.
  • Plans to supply Belarus with Oreshniks signal Russia’s readiness for long-term confrontation, leaving NATO to reassess deterrence strategies against Moscow’s solidified hypersonic advantage. Diplomatic solutions may dwindle as military threats intensify.

Russia’s recent deployment of its advanced Oreshnik hypersonic missile has sent shockwaves across the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) bloc and Ukraine, raising fears of an irreversible shift in the balance of power.

The weapon is capable of reaching speeds exceeding Mach 10 and carrying multiple independently targetable warheads. It poses an unprecedented challenge to existing air defenses and signals Moscow’s willingness to escalate tensions with the West.

The Oreshnik (Russian for “hazelnut tree”), first tested in a devastating Nov. 21, 2024 strike on Ukraine’s Yuzhmash defense facility in Dnipro, represents a technological leap in warfare. Russian President Vladimir Putin lauded the missile’s unparalleled capabilities in a televised address, describing it as immune to interception and capable of delivering strikes comparable to a nuclear blast – even with conventional payloads.

Putin declared that the missile flies to its target at Mach 10 “like a meteorite.” It inflicts such damage that it could be likened to the use of strategic nuclear weapons. (Related: Putin’s “unstoppable” Oreshnik missile: A dangerous gamble or empty threat?)

Footage of the Dnipro attack showed six plasma-engulfed warheads slamming into the ground in seconds, their kinetic energy alone wreaking havoc. Ukrainian intelligence confirmed the missile carried 36 submunitions, designed to obliterate hardened targets – even deep underground bunkers.

Former U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) analyst Michael Maloof told RT that the Oreshnik fundamentally alters the military calculus: “There’s no defense against that. It absolutely shifts the balance of power overwhelmingly in favor of Russia.”

The U.S. lacks operational hypersonic missile defenses, leaving Ukraine and NATO exposed to potential strikes with mere minutes of warning. Given this, the Oreshnik’s debut has exacerbated Europe’s anxieties about entanglement in the Ukraine war.

Jim Townsend, a former U.S. defense official, noted in Foreign Policy that EU nations are “not ready for war over Ukraine” and were rattled by the Oreshnik test. Some European leaders, he suggested, might welcome a Trump-mediated peace deal to avoid further military spending and escalation.

Russian officials have not shied away from leveraging the missile’s psychological impact. Dmitry Medvedev, deputy head of Russia’s Security Council, warned NATO capitals that Oreshnik strikes could deliver “catastrophic damage” within minutes.

“Bomb shelters will not save you,” added Medvedev, who served as Russian president between 2008 and 2012. State media amplified the threat, boasting the missile could hit Brussels in 17 minutes and Polish airbases in 11.

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NATO Member Scrambles Jets As Russia Destroys Gas Facility Key To Imports From US, Azerbaijan

Russia carried out an overnight drone strike on a crucial gas pumping and metering facility in Ukraine, triggering a large fire at the site, Ukrainian officials reported Wednesday. Importantly the station is part of an LNG imports scheme from the US and Azerbaijan. According to Ukraine’s energy ministry, a wave of drones targeted a metering station located near the Romania-Ukraine border, identified as part of the Transbalkan pipeline system.

NATO member Romania scrambled fighter jets in response to the large attack right on its border, Fox News reports:

Romania was forced to scramble F-16 jets after Russia carried out a strike just half a mile from the NATO nation’s territory. The country’s Ministry of National Defense (MApN) confirmed in a post on X that Russia carried out a drone attack near its border.

“On the night of August 5-6, the Russian forces launched a massive drone attack on the civilian infrastructure in the Ismail area, Ukraine, in the vicinity of the border with Romania,” Romania’s defense ministry wrote in a post on X.

“The radar systems of the MApN detected air targets in Ukrainian space, close to Tulcea County. At 1:10a.m., the population in the north of the county was warned via RO-Alert,” the ministry added, in reference to Romania’s official emergency warning system.

According to more details via Fox:

The defense ministry stated that two F-16 fighter jets took off “to monitor the national airspace,” but no “unauthorized intrusions” were detected. The ministry said it would carry out checks in the area and keep NATO allies updated in real time.

The drones reportedly struck oil and gas pipelines at the Orlivka plant in Odesa, Ukraine. Bright orange flames and plumes of smoke were visible across the Danube River.

Russia’s defense ministry acknowledged the intentional attack on Ukraine’s gas infrastructure, coming amid a renewed exchange of attacks by both Russia and Ukraine on energy and transport sites generally. So after six months, even the so-called ‘energy ceasefire’ is clearly off.

Ukraine is busy making great efforts to stockpile gas ahead of what’s typically a brutally cold winter season. President Zelensky called it deliberate in terms of timing.

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Four NATO States Agree To Buy $1 Billion In US Weapons For Ukraine

Denmark, Sweden, Norway, and the Netherlands announced they would buy $1 billion in weapons for Ukraine from the US. 

Copenhagen is pledging to buy $500 million in arms that will be matched by the three Scandinavian countries. “Ukraine is not only fighting for its own security, but also for our security,” Swedish Defense Minister Pal Jonson. 

The Wall Street Journal reports this is the first of several weapon sales to Ukraine paid for by NATO members this summer. 

NATO and President Donald Trump recently unveiled a scheme to send Ukraine $10 billion in US weapons funded by Europe and Canada. However, several European countries have announced they will not participate in the program. 

The WSJ report makes mention of Kyiv’s shopping list:

NATO and Ukraine have established a shopping list of Kyiv’s requirements for lethal and nonlethal equipment, dubbed the Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List. NATO, Ukraine and NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe, U.S. Gen. Alexus Grynkewich, will ensure the packages meet Kyiv’s needs. NATO is dividing the list into packages valued at roughly $500 million apiece

Governments are making financial commitments toward the packages and NATO, which has pledged “rapid delivery from U.S. stockpiles” will coordinate delivery of the arms to Ukraine.

Ukrainian President Zelensky celebrated the announcement. “We already have commitments from the Netherlands, Sweden, Norway, and Denmark – over one billion dollars for American weapons that Ukraine will receive,” he wrote on X. “Thank you! This cooperation with NATO countries will continue.”

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Russian Intel Warns of UK Plan to Stage Tanker Incident

British intelligence agencies are planning to involve NATO allies in launching a large-scale crackdown on the so-called “shadow fleet” carrying Russian oil, the press bureau of Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) said on Monday.

“According to information received by the SVR, British intelligence services are planning to engage NATO allies to carry out a massive sweep of the ‘shadow fleet’. London’s idea is to trigger such a campaign with a high-profile incident involving one or several tankers. The plan envisions staging a major act of sabotage, the damage from which would allow them to declare Russian oil transportation a threat to global maritime navigation,” the statement said.

According to the SVR, this would give the West free rein in choosing methods of counter-action.

“In the extreme scenario, this could mean detaining any ‘suspicious’ vessels in international waters and escorting them to NATO member-state ports,” the statement added.

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Russian Drone Found At Military Base In Lithuania Which Hosts NATO Troops

A suspected errant Russian drone has breached a NATO country’s airspace this week – though certainly not for the first time, and is setting off the proverbial alarm within Lithuania’s military

The drone was discovered crashed at a Lithuanian military training area after entering the country’s airspace from Belarus, after first being spotted early Monday morning, Lithuania’s army reported on Friday. The military first tracked in on radar over Belarusian airspace, near the border.

Several area residents actually captured footage of it flying over Vilnius before it vanished, and later was found on the ground at the military training base.

“It’s likely the same drone that breached our airspace on Monday. Initial analysis suggests it may be a Gerbera model, though this is still being confirmed,” the Lithuanian military said in the statement.

At least one Lithuanian lawmaker has portrayed the drone breach incident as intentional, also given it ended up at a military site.

“This looks like a provocation,” said Mindaugas Sinkevičius, interim leader of Lithuania’s ruling Social Democratic Party, while describing that the sensitive area where it was found leads to the conclusion that the breach was on purpose or a test of sorts.

It has been identified as a Gerbera drone, a type which Russia’s military often utilizes as a decoy to mislead or distract air defense systems in Ukraine.

Interestingly, the Gaižiūnai training grounds near Rukla – where it was recovered – actually hosts a NATO multinational battalion, regional reports say.

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Kiev Kleptocracy… Stench of Corruption Fouls NATO Regime’s Endgame

The sewer gates are opening as the endgame approaches. It’s not just the Kiev cabal that will be swept away.

Previously, any observer who had pointed out the rampant corruption that is endemic in the Kiev regime was automatically denounced by Western governments and media as a peddler of Russian disinformation.

Hilariously, though, this week, the Kiev kleptocracy burst open in such a spectacular way that even the American and European apologists for the regime could no longer maintain the worst-kept secret of their charade.

The fiasco exploded after the self-appointed President of Ukraine, Vladimir Zelensky, passed a law that stripped two anti-corruption agencies of their independent powers.Raico, Ralph

Citizens took to the streets of Kiev and other cities in furious protest against what they openly lambasted as an autocratic regime trying to prolong its corrupt racketeering. The demonstrations were the largest seen on the streets of Ukraine despite the country being at war with Russia for over three years. As the Wall Street Journal reported: “The protests exposed long dormant divisions between the government and society.”

Zelensky, whose official presidential mandate expired last year, was stunned by the upsurge in public anger. By the end of the week, he was backtracking on the move to close the anti-graft agencies and was claiming, somewhat unconvincingly, that he was drafting a new bill to return the investigative powers. It was damage-limitation mode and largely prompted by the alarm of his Western backers.

It is not clear if the U-turn will appease the Ukrainian public, who appear to have reached a pivotal level of disgust with the Kiev regime, not just over its endemic corruption but also over the grinding war with Russia and forced mobilization of reluctant military recruits.

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Five Reasons Why No Amount of Additional NATO Support to Ukraine Can Stop Russian Steamroller

The US and its European NATO allies are working on new arrangements to keep the proxy war against Russia in Ukraine going for as long as possible. Here’s why the outcome will be the same no matter how much additional support is delivered.

  1. Ukraine Has Already Lost

Long term, “there is no material-technical nor political strategy” to avoid Ukraine’s defeat, Quincy Institute fellow Almut Rochowanski told Responsible Statecraft this week, stressing that the West simply doesn’t have the capacity to arm Kiev sufficiently to stop it from losing more territory, troops, arms and infrastructure.

  1. Russia’s Advance Has Become Unstoppable

Case in point? The ongoing summer offensive, which even the Russophobic NYT admits has scored “its biggest monthly gains in territory since the beginning of the year” in June – attributable to advantages in troops, airpower and the “methodical” destruction of Ukraine’s army.

  1. Any New Resources Delivered Will Be Wasted

Currently, new deliveries include promises of additional Patriot batteries, sourced from European (not US) stocks, and 49 used Australian M1 Abrams tanks.

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Analyzing The Ambiguity Over The American-NATO Arms Arrangement For Ukraine

The offensive dimension of Trump’s new three–pronged approach to Ukraine involves the sale of American weapons to NATO who’ll in turn transfer them to Ukraine.

This aligns with what Trump told NBC several days prior to the aforesaid announcement.

According to Reuters’ sources, however, “Trump presented a framework – not a fleshed-out plan”, and some of the six countries that NATO chief Rutte mentioned will participate in this scheme allegedly only found out about it during that time.

Other reports then circulated about France, Italy, and Czechia’s refusal to participate on various pretexts ranging from their principled support for the European defense industry, which would struggle to fulfill its potential if EU countries buy more expensive US arms, to simple budgetary concerns.

The resultant ambiguity over the American-NATO arms arrangement for Ukraine that Trump announced accordingly raises questions about what’s really going on.

There are three likely explanations.

  • The first is that there were innocent communication issues between the US, NATO, and the bloc’s individual members, but that’s difficult to believe since everyone just gathered for the latest NATO Summit less than a month ago. This arrangement was presumably discussed during that time. It would also contextualize their agreement to raise defense spending to 5% of GDP, especially if the Europeans expected to purchase more expensive arms for transfer to Ukraine as part of this arrangement.
  • The second explanation is that nothing concrete was agreed to, at least with all members, during that summit. This would account for why some of them were reportedly caught by surprise and others refuse to participate. In this scenario, Trump’s announcement would have been meant to pressure them into this profitable arrangement to “save face” since all but Hungary and Slovakia (which also won’t participate) have consistently claimed that they’ll support Ukraine “for as long as it takes”.
  • And finally, the last possibility is that the analyzed media reports are part of a deception campaign along the lines of what Israeli media claimed that Trump and Bibi pulled off ahead of them bombing Iran. This version of events assumes that there’s much more agreement between NATO members behind the scenes than has been reported. The purpose of claiming otherwise would be to get Russia’s guard down ahead of what could be NATO’s rapid rearmament of Ukraine with American weapons.

Whichever explanation(s) one adheres to, more clarity will be forthcoming from Russian media reports, which will reveal the existence of these new arms on the battlefield or lack thereof ahead of the expiry of Trump’s 50-day deadline. If lots of US arms flood into Ukraine, then it’ll show that there was enough agreement and capacity to back up his threat. If not, then he might blame the Europeans for fumbling it, after which he might only impose some secondary sanctions but no longer militarily escalate.

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