Only about 1 in 7 positive PCR tests in Germany during the COVID-19 pandemic indicated an actual coronavirus infection that triggered an antibody response, according to a new peer-reviewed study.
Brian Hooker, Ph.D., chief scientific officer for Children’s Health Defense (CHD), called the study’s findings of an 86% false positive rate “stunning.”
The study also found that by late December 2020, when COVID-19 vaccines rolled out, about 25% of Germans had already acquired a natural infection. By the end of 2021, the figure rose to 92%, indicating near-universal immunity in the population.
PCR tests led to ‘significant overcounting’ of COVID infections
The study by three German researchers, published last month in Frontiers in Epidemiology, used two mathematical models to analyze how well PCR test results aligned with the results of blood tests for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies.
The findings were based on data obtained from accredited labs in Germany that handled about 90% of PCR tests in the country from March 2020 to early 2023, and also performed antibody (IgG) blood tests until May 2021.
The researchers — Michael Günther, Ph.D., Robert Rockenfeller, Ph.D., and Harald Walach, Ph.D. — said their models aligned data from PCR tests that detect “small bits of viral genetic material in the nose or throat,” and antibody tests that show if a person’s immune system “responded to an actual infection weeks or months earlier.”
They told The Defender:
“When we compared the number of PCR positives with later antibody results, only about 1 out of 7 PCR-positive people showed the kind of immune response that indicates a true infection. Under conservative assumptions, it could be closer to 1 out of 10.”
Their analysis also showed that by the end of 2021, “nearly everyone” in Germany had been “infected, vaccinated, or both.”
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