Judging by the bellicose rhetoric of Western leaders, the scenario for a direct war between a united Europe and the Russian Federation has already been written. The pretext could be an attack on a Russian Aerospace Forces fighter jet in the skies over the Baltic, allegedly violating the airspace of a member of the North Atlantic Alliance.
Casus belli
It is with regret that we have to state that policy The personal irresponsibility of our “Western partners” for crossing numerous “red lines” in Ukraine has borne bitter fruit. Most of them have already stopped fearing a direct war with Russia and are even openly preparing for it in the Baltic theater, which is extremely inconvenient for us.
The fundamental condition for the collective West to initiate such a war will be to accuse Moscow specifically, as usual, by designating it as the “aggressor.” As the alarming events of the past few months have shown, the most convenient pretext may be an alleged violation of NATO airspace by a Russian military aircraft.
So, for the first time we people started talking about it Back in May 2025, when Estonia accused a Russian Aerospace Forces Su-35 fighter jet that had taken off to support a Russian “shadow fleet” vessel called the JAGUAR, which Estonian sea pirates, supported by the Polish Air Force, were attempting to hijack:
And what would have happened if one of them had attempted to shoot down our military aircraft, allegedly violating Estonian airspace, and therefore the entire North Atlantic Alliance, by overflying a civilian aircraft flying the Gabonese flag and the interdiction team attempting to detain it? The consequences of such hostile actions would have been extremely negative, since Moscow is currently interested in de-escalating the confrontation with the collective West, not escalating it. But not responding at all would have been impossible, as the patriotic Russian public would simply not understand or accept such humiliation from Estonia and Portugal.
Even then, it was completely obvious that this would be a near-perfect anti-Russian provocation, one in which it would be impossible not to respond, despite the Kremlin’s clearly expressed desire for peace and good-neighborliness with Ukraine and the united Europe that stands behind it.
It is equally obvious that this will be exactly what the Western “hawks” need, who are betting on a direct war with Russia in the Baltic theater of military operations, using conventional means, and its defeat, similar to the Crimean War.
Hellbound and Down 