In 2003, then Secretary of State Colin Powell addressed the UN regarding Iraq’s alleged weapons of mass destruction program. “Every statement I make today is backed up by solid sources,” he said. “What we’re giving you are facts and conclusions. Clearly, Saddam Hussein and his regime will stop at nothing until something stops him.” After the invasion, it was found that the US case for WMD’s was false. However, the war could not be stopped and would cost the US trillions and thousands of servicemember lives.1
On 15 February 1898, the USS Maine exploded in Havana’s harbor. Initial intelligence concluded that it was sunk by an external explosion, presumably a Spanish laid mine. ‘Remember the Maine, and the hell with Spain’ quickly became a rallying cry and the US soon was at war with Spain. In the 1970s, new evidence pointed to a more likely cause of the explosion – an internal fire in the coal bunker. The ultimate cause may never be known, but at the time, the US was eager to have a war to gain control in Cuba and overseas territories so objective investigations were not possible at the time. The USS Maine was a convenient excuse to finally go to war.
In September 1944, the Allies tried to execute Operation Market Garden, a bold gambit to have airborne forces seize a series of bridges deep into the Netherlands to allow swift victory in the war. Eisenhower allowed Montgomery tremendous resources for the plan, which ultimately failed due to a multitude of factors including ambitious timelines and ignoring intelligence on German strength, particularly at Arnhem, the final objective. The 1977 movie A Bridge Too Far depicts how Allied politics overcame prudence and ignored intelligence:
Lt. Gen. Frederick Browning: Only the weather can stop us now.
General Stanislaw Sosaboski: Weather. What of the Germans, General Browning. Don’t you think that if we know Arnhem is so critical to their safety that they might know it too?
Lt. General Frederick Browning: See here, General Sosaboski, I should think you would have more faith in Field Marshal Montgomery’s plan.
General Stanislaw Sosaboski: Faith? I will tell you how much faith I have. I am thinking of asking for a letter from you stating that I was ordered to go on this mission in case my men are massacred.
Lt. General Frederick Browning: I see… I do see. Do you wish such a letter?
General Stanislaw Sosaboski: No… In the case of massacre: what difference will it make?
Last week, the US executed a complicated bombing mission to destroy three Iranian nuclear sites. From a technical standpoint, the mission seemed nearly flawless. No aircraft were lost and direct hits with large bombs were achieved at all of the planned objectives. However, as with any bombing mission, exact bomb damage assessment is impossible unless the US is physically on the ground where the bombs detonated. Damage assessment is complicated and the intelligence community still has assessment of the impact of the bombing on the Iranian nuclear effort ongoing. In short, the strategic impact of the raid remains to be seen.
Hellbound and Down 