At the Nato summit currently underway in The Hague, Germany’s new chancellor, Friedrich Merz, is expected to present his plan to transform the Bundeswehr into “the most powerful conventional army in Europe”. This dramatic announcement represents more than a shift in policy — it signals a rupture with the fundamental strategic identity Germany has maintained since 1945.
The idea of rearming the German military dates back to Olaf Scholz’s 2022 Zeitenwende speech — the so-called “turning point” announced in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Scholz promised a €100 billion fund for the military and pledged to meet Nato’s then 2% spending target. Yet that “turning point” largely failed to materialise. Two years later, the German Council on Foreign Relations bluntly concluded that little had changed.
Now, Merz is determined to deliver what Scholz only gestured towards. He has made defence and security the cornerstone of his chancellorship, launching the most ambitious rearmament campaign since the Second World War. The scale is staggering: a proposed €400 billion in defence and security investments, including a plan to raise annual defence spending to 5% of GDP — as demanded by Nato. That would represent nearly half of the federal budget — around €225 billion — a transformation with sweeping political and social consequences. On Monday, Berlin confirmed that its military spending will reach 3.5% of GDP by 2029, with the 5% target to be reached in the years to come.
To achieve this, Merz rammed through a constitutional amendment to reform the “debt brake”, a fiscal mechanism that has been enshrined in Germany’s Basic Law since 2009 and has since capped the federal structural deficit. Despite pledging during the campaign that the debt brake would remain untouched — and failing to mention his rearmament plans — Merz reversed course immediately after his election. His government exploited the final session of the outgoing parliament — even though a new Bundestag had already been elected — to approve the change. The aim was explicitly stated: to unlock vast new funding for military expansion.
Hellbound and Down 