The Commander of US forces in Europe (aka USEUCOM), General Chris Cavoli, was on Capitol Hill today testifying before the Senate Armed Services committee. His opening statement is a remarkable mix of candor, fantasy and pure unadulterated male bovine excrement (MBE). It highlights my past contention that senior US defense officials will shade the truth (a euphemism for “lie“) in order to keep an existing policy intact, even if that policy is failing. We saw that in the Vietnam War and, more recently, the parade of generals who repeatedly told Congress that we were winning in Afghanistan.
I will excerpt a few paragraphs from his statement that illustrate what I mean. Cavoli grudgingly admits, early on in his remarks, that Russia is not on the ropes militarily:
Russian Reconstitution
Despite extensive battlefield losses in Ukraine, the Russian military is reconstituting and growing at a faster rate than most analysts had anticipated. In fact, the Russian army, which has borne the brunt of combat, is today larger than it was at the beginning of the war—despite suffering an estimated 790,000 casualties. In December 2024, Moscow ordered the military to increase its strength to 1.5 million active service members and is recruiting approximately 30,000 troops per month. Russian forces on the frontlines of Ukraine are now at over 600,000, the highest level over the course of the war and almost double the size of the initial invasion force.
Despite repeating the canard that Russia has suffered 790,000 casualties, Cavoli concedes that the Russian military is larger today than in 2022 and that the Russians are adding at least 360,000 new soldiers to the ranks annually. I want to remind you that during the past 70 years, the US military has consistently overestimated enemy losses. The most egregious case was the Vietnam War, as I discussed in a previous article. During the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan, CIA and DIA analysts claimed that Russia lost more than 30,000 men. Russia’s official figures were half of that. I do give Cavoli credit for admitting that the “Russian military is reconstituting and growing at a faster rate than most analysts had anticipated.”
The next paragraph is a real stunner:
Russia is not just reconstituting service members but is also replacing combat vehicles and munitions at an unprecedented pace. Russian ground forces in Ukraine have lost an estimated 3,000 tanks, 9,000 armored vehicles, 13,000 artillery systems, and over 400 air defense systems in the past year—but is on pace to replace them all. Russia has expanded its industrial production, opened new manufacturing facilities, and converted commercial production lines for military purposes. As a result, the Russian defense industrial base is expected to roll out 1,500 tanks, 3,000 armored vehicles, and 200 Iskander ballistic and cruise missiles this year. (Comparatively, the United States only produces about 135 tanks per year and no longer produces new Bradley Fighting Vehicles.) Additionally, we anticipate Russia to produce 250,000 artillery shells per month, which puts it on track to build a stockpile three times greater than the United States and Europe combined.
The key point is not the massive ESTIMATED losses of Russian tanks, vehicles and artillery. Despite the losses, Russia “is on pace to replace them all.” Cavoli also admits that Russia is producing 11 tanks for every one that the US can produce. And that number is misleading. The US tanks Cavoli is referencing are mostly refurbishments of existing frames. The US is not producing brand new tanks. The kicker comes in the final sentence: Russia is producing three times the number of artillery shells than the US and Europe combined. Yet, many delusional Western pundits insist Russia’s economy is struggling, on the verge of collapse. That qualifies as MBE.
Hellbound and Down 