The fuse has been burning slowly, but Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s risky August invasion of Russia’s Kursk region is about to blow up in his face in spectacular fashion — as thousands of Ukrainian soldiers are suddenly in imminent peril of being encircled, according to open source intelligence analysts. The crisis comes as Zelensky is under increasing US pressure to reach a negotiated end to the war — and a loss of captured Russian territory promises to make his already-deteriorated bargaining position even weaker.
According to DeepStateMAP.live, an interactive map of the war run by Ukrainian military bloggers, their country’s forces in Kursk are nearly cleaved into two, with roughly three-quarters of Ukraine’s forces in Russia almost entirely surrounded on Friday. Their last connection between the two forces was a kilometer long and under 500 meters wide at its thinnest section.
Black Bird Group military analyst Pasi Paroinen summed up the state of affairs for Reuters:
“The situation (for Ukraine in Kursk) is very bad. Now there is not much left until Ukrainian forces will either be encircled or forced to withdraw. And withdrawal would mean running a dangerous gauntlet, where the forces would be constantly threatened by Russian drones and artillery.”
Ukraine’s Kursk gambit, which surprised the world, was intended to stall Russia’s steady advances in eastern Ukraine, with hopes that Russia would be forced to engage in a major redeployment of forces to deal with the capture of Russian territory. Ukraine’s hold on the territory was also seen as a bargaining chip for Zelensky as the war now seems destined for a negotiated end. Not only does that chip appear to be vanishing, Putin could end up with a some new chips of its own — as Russia may soon have thousands more Ukrainian prisoners of war among its assets.
In late February, Russia’s defense ministry said its forces had regained control of 64% of Kursk territory initially seized by Ukraine. Kiev’s cross-border offensive started in early August 2024 and has managed to control dozens of towns and villages and hundreds of square kilometers of territory. That accomplishment has reportedly been aided by thousands of North Korean soldiers, with reports that one to three thousand more were being sent in February. North Korea has denied its soldiers are fighting in the war.
The New York Times reports that Russia is on the brink of a major victory in Kursk thanks to the coordinated work of North Korean troops and Russian drone units, advancing with the aid of intense Russian artillery and air bombardment. Ukrainian soldiers report an overwhelming concentration of new, fiber-optic drones that are controlled by an ultrathin cable rather than radio signals that are vulnerable to electronic jamming.
Hellbound and Down 