Recent threatening statements by incoming President Donald Trump have raised the question of why any country would risk partnering with the United States. But the erosion in trust has not begun with the incoming Trump administration.
Several years ago, Saudi Arabia began to reexamine its relationship with the United States. Their confidence had been shaken by the unreliability of the partnership. President Biden’s chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan shocked the Saudis, but so too, Annelle Sheline, Research Fellow for the Middle East Program at the Quincy Institute, told me, did “Obama’s signing of the JCPOA” and “Trump’s lack of response after the September 2019 attacks on Saudi oil facilities.” The damage caused by three consecutive presidents to trust in the partnership helped convince Saudi Arabia to explore closer relationships with Iran, Russia and China.
While Saudi Arabia’s trust in partnering with the U.S. waned because the U.S. made a nuclear agreement with Iran, Iran’s trust in partnering with the U.S. waned because the U.S. broke it. Hardliners in Iran had warned then President Hassan Rouhani that his trust in America would be repaid with broken promises. Despite these warnings, Rouhani placed Iran’s future in trusting the U.S. to keep their promises and honor their agreements. The hardliners were vindicated when Trump illegally pulled out of the JCPOA nuclear agreement. The proof that a partnership with the U.S. was not to be trusted helped convince Iran to forge ever tighter relationships with Russia and China.
Hellbound and Down 