Based on the latest available data and an enhanced version of a stress-tested methodology from a scholarly journal, a new study by Just Facts has found that about 10% to 27% of non-citizen adults in the U.S. are now illegally registered to vote.
The U.S. Census recorded more than 19 million adult non-citizens living in the U.S. during 2022. Given their voter registration rates, this means that about two million to five million of them are illegally registered to vote. These figures are potentially high enough to overturn the will of the American people in major elections, including congressional seats and the presidency.
Background
In 2014, the academic journal Electoral Studies published a groundbreaking study by three scholars who estimated how frequently non-citizens were illegally voting. Based on data for the 2008 presidential and congressional elections, the study found that:
- “roughly one quarter of non-citizens” in the U.S. “were likely registered to vote.”
- “6.4% of non-citizens actually voted.”
- 81.8% of them “reported voting for Barack Obama.”
- illegal votes cast by non-citizens “likely” changed “important election outcomes” in favor of Democrats, “including Electoral College votes” and a “pivotal” U.S. Senate race that enabled Democrats to pass Obamacare.
The study’s voter registration rate was estimated with data from two key sources:
- A national survey in which 14.8% of non-citizens admitted that they were registered to vote.
- A database of registered voters that reveals what portion of the surveyed non-citizens “were in fact registered” even though “they claimed not to be registered.”
By combining these data, the author’s “best” estimate was that 25.1% of non-citizens were illegally registered to vote.
The authors calculated voter turnout with the same datasets, but their methodology yielded a best estimate that 6.4% of non-citizens voted in 2008—lower than the 8.0% of non-citizens who stated “I definitely voted” and explicitly named the candidate they voted for. This and other matters led Just Facts to engage in extensive correspondence with the lead author of the study to verify practically every detail of it.
Just Facts then conducted a comparable study that used the same datasets, a more straightforward methodology, and related studies to constrain assumptions. This found that roughly 27% of non-citizens were registered to vote and about 16% of them voted in the 2008 national elections.
As is often the case with studies of illegal actions where enforcement is limited, both Just Facts’ study and the one from Electoral Studies have sizeable margins of uncertainty. This is due to relatively small sample sizes and other possible sources of error—some that could produce overcounts and others undercounts.
Hellbound and Down 