Bear with me while I engage in a bit of speculation.
Since the NATO/Ukraine invasion of Russia, in the Kursk direction, began the hot question has been: Why? None of the usual suspects can make this move make sense. The Ukrainians are stripping their main defense lines in Donbass and sending their best trained and equipped reserves to die in a futile adventure of some sort—even as the Russians appear to be rolling up the Donbass frontline. Most agree that these invading forces in Kursk are doomed—Macgregor: ‘I don’t think they’ll make it [out of the meat grinder]’. The Ukrainian losses are already horrific, since they are operating without air cover and are increasingly cut off from support and resupply. Larry Johnson paints a grim picture:
The Russian Ministry of Defense claims that it has killed more than 4,400 Ukrainian and mercenary troops, destroyed 65 tanks and more than 400 armored and infantry fighting vehicles. It appears that some of the Russian forces in the area are using this as a training exercise — i.e., a live fire event for untested troops where they get to put their training into practice. The new units are fighting alongside and under the guidance of experienced forces, with the Chechens playing their typical gnarly role.
Big Serge has written a lengthy substack trying to figure this out: Back to the Bloodlands. He presents four theories of what’s behind this, but ultimately finds none of them persuasive: 1) The Atomic Hostage; 2) Diversionary Front; 3) Bargaining Chip; 4) Pure Spectacle. As I type I’m listening to Ray McGovern admitting that no one seems able to make sense of this. And yet …
Listening the other day to John Mearsheimer and Danny Davis, Davis cited several usually reliable sources to the effect that Ukraine is reported to have moved 1/3 of their entire army to the northern border for use in a full scale offensive into Russia. The latest claim is that this is to force Putin to negotiate from a position of weakness—an utterly implausible notion. But Ukraine is about to double down. Is this pure madness?
Here’s the one thing that all these commentators appear to agree on: NATO—which means the US—is behind this. Does that fact help us to understand what’s going on? Why would the US do this—push Ukraine to commit its best remaining forces to a suicidal venture that will only hasten the end? Will the US somehow derive some benefit from this deepening Ukraine tragedy?
Hellbound and Down 